Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast March 11, 2014.

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Presentation transcript:

Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast March 11, 2014

Outline for Today Review of 2013 Positive Economic Signs Negative Economic Signs North Carolina Outlook for 2014 The Employment Picture Regional Perspective Housing Trends

Current Expansion Began July months 7 th longest of 33 total expansions since December 1854

North Carolina in 2013

Quarterly Growth Rates in Forecasted RGSP

2013 Sector Analysis Wholesale Trade 3.6 Percent of Real Sector Growth Total Real GSP Growth 2.5 % Mining 1.2 TWU 4.3 E&H Services 4.9 Agriculture 22.7 Percent of Total Real GSP Construction 1.9 Durables 0.7 Retail Trade 1.8 Government 1.7 FIRE 2.9 Nondurables -0.5 B&P Services 4.1 Information 2.0 H&L Services 2.1 Other Services

Wholesale Trade 1.1 Percent of Employment Growth Total Employment Growth 1.6% Mining 0.0 TWU 3.8 E&H Services 1.4 Percent of Total Employment Construction -2.2 Durables 0.4 Retail Trade 2.7 Government -0.1 FIRE 1.3 Nondurables 0.2 B&P Services 4.1 Information 7.6 L&H Services 2.1 Other Services Year-End Employment Trends 64,500 Net Jobs

2013 North Carolina Unemployment Rate December Rate 6.9%

Housing Stock/Prices Interest Rates Inflation Consumer Credit Consumer Confidence Dollar Gas Prices Budget Deficit Positive Indicators

U.S. Monthly New Home Inventory (Seasonally Adjusted)

Current Rate % Monthly Federal Funds Rate

Percentage Changes in CPI

U.S. Household Debt Payments as a Percent of Income Peak 2007 III 13.18% Current 9.93%

Consumer Confidence October March January

$0.87 $ Dollar Price of Euro

Monthly Gas Prices

Effect of Energy Price Increase on U.S. Economy Annual Transportation Usage – 187 billion gallons per year Annual Total Usage – 288 billion gallons per year Effect of a $.50 increase in price – Transportation$93.5 billion per year – Total $144.0 billion per year

1980 – 2023 U.S. Budget Deficit 2013 Budget Deficit $672 billion 2015 Budget Deficit $388 billion

Excess Reserves Trade Deficit Tax Increases Negative Indicators

2008 – 2014 Banking System Excess Reserves February Excess Reserves $2,517 billion

U.S. Trade Deficits 2009 Trade Deficit $382 Billion 2008 Trade Deficit $681 Billion 2006Trade Deficit $799 Billion 2013TradeDeficit $475 Billion

Spending Cuts Fiscal Year 2014 Original Sequestration – $100 billion New Sequestration – $50 billion Fiscal Year 2015 Original Sequestration – $100 billion New Sequestration – $75 billion

North Carolina Forecast 2014

Quarterly Growth Rates in Forecasted RGSP

2014 Sector Analysis Wholesale Trade 3.6 Percent of Real Sector Growth Total Real GSP Growth 3.0 % Mining 1.9 TWU 3.4 E&H Services 2.2 Agriculture 11.9 Percent of Total Real GSP Construction 4.2 Durables 2.9 Retail Trade 2.4 Government 3.8 FIRE 3.3 Nondurables 2.5 B&P Services 1.8 Information 2.1 H&L Services 1.7 Other Services

Wholesale Trade 3.2 Percent Employment Growth Total Employment Growth 1.5% Mining -4.4 TWU 3.3 E&H Services 1.7 Percent of Total Employment Construction 3.7 Durables 1.7 Retail Trade 1.8 Government 0.0 FIRE 0.1 Nondurables 0.3 B&P Services 1.7 Information 0.7 L&H Services 1.8 Other Services Year-End Employment Trends 60,000 Net Jobs

North Carolina Unemployment Rate December Rate 6.9%

Employment Picture

Employment Decline: -8,736,000 Employment Gain: 7,557,000 Percent Recovered: 86.5% United States Payroll Employment

Employment Decline: -334,600 Employment Gain: 243,900 Percent Recovered: 72.9% North Carolina Payroll Employment

What’s the Target? 3,000,000 Jobs per Year 250,000 Jobs per Month

US Job Growth ,193,000 jobs 182,750 per month (Second Largest Job Growth Since 1999)

US Job Growth ,186,000 jobs 182,150 per month (Third Largest Job Growth Since 1999)

U.S. Job Growth

NC Job Growth

NC Job Growth ,900 jobs 7,490 per month (Second Largest Job Growth Since 1998)

NC Job Growth ,500 jobs 5,375 per month (Sixth Largest Job Growth Since 1998)

July 2013 Unemployment Rates StateRate NEVADA 9.5 ILLINOIS 9.2 NORTH CAROLINA 8.9 RHODE ISLAND 8.9 GEORGIA 8.8 MICHIGAN 8.8 CALIFORNIA 8.7 NEW JERSEY 8.6 MISSISSIPPI 8.5 TENNESSEE 8.5

December 2013 Unemployment Rates StateRate RHODE ISLAND9.3 NEVADA9.0 ILLINOIS8.9 CALIFORNIA8.3 MICHIGAN8.3 KENTUCKY7.9 MISSISSIPPI7.8 TENNESSEE7.7 ARIZONA7.6 ARKANSAS7.4 CONNECTICUT7.4 GEORGIA7.4 NEW JERSEY7.2 MASSACHUSETTS7.1 OHIO7.1 OREGON7.1 NEW YORK7.0 NORTH CAROLINA6.9 INDIANA6.8 PENNSYLVANIA6.8 WASHINGTON6.7 SOUTH CAROLINA6.6

2013 North Carolina Labor Force

2013 North Carolina Unemployment

2013 North Carolina Employment

NC Number of Unemployed per Job Opening (Not Seasonally Adjusted) January Persons per Job Opening

Regional Perspective

MSA Jobs Gained Geography Jobs GainedPercentage North Carolina Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill NC-SC MSA Raleigh-Cary MSA Durham-Chapel Hill MSA Greensboro-High Point MSA Asheville MSA Wilmington MSA Winston-Salem MSA Greenville MSA Burlington MSA Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton MSA Fayetteville MSA Goldsboro MSA Rocky Mount MSA

MSA Jobs Percentage Geography Jobs GainedPercentage North Carolina Fayetteville MSA Durham-Chapel Hill MSA Raleigh-Cary MSA Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill NC-SC MSA Greenville MSA Asheville MSA Wilmington MSA Burlington MSA Winston-Salem MSA Greensboro-High Point MSA Goldsboro MSA Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton MSA Rocky Mount MSA

MSA Number of Unemployed Number of Unemployed (not seasonally-adjusted) January 2008December 2013 Area NameNumber of Unemployed Asheville, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area, NC9,20410,682 Burlington, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area, NC3,8864,601 Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC Metropolitan Statistical A, NC45,91060,303 Durham-Chapel Hill, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area, NC10,93113,287 Fayetteville, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area, NC8,56012,464 Goldsboro, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area, NC2,6483,588 Greensboro-High Point, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area, NC20,14025,011 Greenville, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area, NC4,7946,398 Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area, NC11,58411,718 Jacksonville, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area, NC3,1374,359 Raleigh-Cary, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area, NC22,71730,963 Rocky Mount, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area, NC4,9706,363 Wilmington, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area, NC9,22512,669 Winston-Salem, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area, NC11,98114,403

MSA Number of Job Openings January 2008December 2013 Area NameNumber of Job Openings Asheville, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area, NC7,0829,961 Burlington, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area, NC2,1732,558 Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC Metropolitan Statistical A, NC54,91049,251 Durham-Chapel Hill, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area, NC19,72415,268 Fayetteville, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area, NC7,4877,795 Goldsboro, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area, NC1,8751,538 Greensboro-High Point, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area, NC8,67317,695 Greenville, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area, NC5,3154,619 Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area, NC4,8615,151 Jacksonville, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area, NC2,1222,893 Raleigh-Cary, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area, NC34,93733,956 Rocky Mount, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area, NC2,1192,274 Wilmington, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area, NC6,7177,868 Winston-Salem, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area, NC9,3698,072

MSA Job Supply and Demand Number of Unemployed to Number of Job Openings January 2008December 2013 Area NameNumber of Unemployed per Job Opening Asheville, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area, NC Burlington, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area, NC Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC Metropolitan Statistical A, NC Durham-Chapel Hill, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area, NC Fayetteville, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area, NC Goldsboro, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area, NC Greensboro-High Point, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area, NC Greenville, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area, NC Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area, NC Jacksonville, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area, NC Raleigh-Cary, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area, NC Rocky Mount, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area, NC Wilmington, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area, NC Winston-Salem, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area, NC

Housing in 2013

US Residential Construction (NIPA)

US Residential Building Permits YearTotal PermitsSingle Family Permits , , ,371.61, , ,425.61, ,441.11, ,612.31, ,663.51, ,592.31, ,636.71, ,747.71, ,889.21, ,070.11, ,155.31, ,838.91, ,

NC Residential Building Permits YearTotal PermitsSingle Family Permits ,82466, ,22666, ,07777, ,91084, ,97982, ,77770, ,65239, ,80025, ,88926, ,80424, ,69229, *50,51035,399 * Based on 11 months of data

U.S. Monthly New Home Inventory (Seasonally Adjusted)

US Case Schiller Housing Price Index (Composite 20) MonthIndexConditionPercent Change January Base July Peak106.5% March Trough-35.1% December % December Current13.4%

Charlotte Case Schiller Housing Price Index MonthIndexConditionPercent Change January Base July Peak35.6% January Trough-20.1% December % December Current7.8%

Keys to Watch Consumer Confidence Consumer Debt Housing Prices Excess Reserves US Monthly Job Growth (1 st Friday) Gasoline Prices

Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast March 11, 2014

Current Expansion Began July months 7 th longest of 33 total expansions since December 1854

Updated Sept