Ken Cordell (USDA Forest Service) a, Vanessa Lane (Univ. of Georgia) b, & Gary Green (Univ. of Georgia) c a Pioneering Research Scientist USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Athens, GA. b Postdoctoral Research Associate & c Associate Professor UGA, Warnell School of Forestry Resources, Athens, GA.

Review population & demographic trends & futures of the three major countries of the North American (NA) Continent Overview research on linkages between population demographics & environmental values, attitudes & behaviors Based on projections of population growth & demographic change, speculate about possible challenges for natural resources & wildlife conservation education Introduction

North America NA includes Mexico, the United States & Canada (not Greenland) Together, a total area of almost 8.5 million mi 2 Combined population ~ 460 million Growth ~1%/yr, = ~4.6 million/yr 6% of annual world growth Overview

Mexico: pop’n ~113 million Economy dependent on oil, gas, & agriculture GDP per capita < $9,000 U.S. Literacy rate = 92% United States: pop’n ~ 312 million Major industries = oil, gas, steel, motor vehicles, aerospace, electronics, & chemicals Total land area ~ 3.8 million mi 2, 3 rd largest in world GDP per capita > $36,000 Literacy rate = 97% Galleristny.com Globalmotors.net Mexico & U.S.

Canada: pop’n ~ 32 million Economy dependent on manufacturing and agriculture 80% of trade is with U.S. GDP per capita = $29 - $30,000 Literacy rate = 97% Canada

World Context World pop’n may ≥ 9.2 billion by 2075, then slowly decline By 2050, world pop’n projected to grow from 7 to 8.9 billion, a 28% increase in < 40 years Average annual growth rate over first half of 21st Century will be 0.77%, lower than 1.76% seen from Newint.org Less developed regions will be ~99% of growth

Population Trends in North America

Demographic Trends in Mexico Increasing Urbanization – Esp. Large Cities 33% under 15 yrs of age Increasing net migration Decreasing fertility rates Decreasing family size Increasing literacy & education More women in workforce u.arizona.edu www-cs-faculty.stanford.edu

Demographic Trends in US Increasing urbanization Increasing immigration Greater diversification of population Hispanics, Latinos, Asians Increasing population growth Increasing cohorts of 44-54, 55-65, 65+ More women in workforce digital.library.unt.edu

Demographic Trends in Canada Increasing urbanization Increasing ethno-cultural diversity of population Increasing net immigration Decreasing family size More women in workforce Increasing cohorts of 45+ canada0123.com

Linkages Between Environmental Values, Attitudes, & Beliefs Five Critical Factors: 1. Shifting demographics 2. Aging population 3. Increasing education level 4. Increasingly urban population 5. Increasing internet & social media How will these factors affect public values, attitudes, beliefs, & even behaviors toward environmental issues? mayflowerpark.com

Factor 1: Shifting Demographics Between , combined size of minority populations will be the majority in NA Two main groups: Asians: (esp. Chinese & Korean) fastest growing group in Canada, second fastest in U.S. Hispanics/Latinos: 21-31% of U.S. pop’n by Granger Wootz

Factor 1: Shifting Demographics Asians (Chinese, Koreans): More collective society than Whites Pro-environmentalists tend to have “altruistic” or “egoistic” environmental concerns Dominant philosophy emphasizes harmony with nature May be more willing to adapt to American environmental attitudes than Hispanics or Blacks Social/environmental values may homogenize with Whites over time Marketplace.org soenyun.com

Factor 1: Shifting Demographics Hispanics/Latinos: More collective society than Whites Pro-environmentalists have “altruistic” concerns “Human-in-nature” view Generally answer polls in a more pro-environmental manner Social/environmental values may homogenize with Whites over time, depending upon immersion hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu

Factor 2: Aging Population Conservatism positively correlated with increasing age Babyboomer generation more utilitarian, but more conservative resource use, e.g. “frugal” Environmental issues of lower priority than others, such as economy & health care Less use of wilderness areas, more emphasis on easy access recreation Outdoorafro.com Seniorcitizens-inc.org

Factor 3: Increasing Education Education is positively correlated with environmental concern Higher education linked with increased income Higher education linked with biospheric & altruistic environmental values More women attaining higher degrees

Factor 4: Increasingly Urbanized Youth becoming less environmentally friendly, (e.g. “Nature Deficit Disorder”) Increasingly separated from nature May be more supportive of preservation than conservation Limited exposure to nature may limit understanding of environmental processes Future funding through hunting/fishing licenses & taxes may be limited Salon.com japantimes.co.jp

Factor 5: Internet & Social Media NA alone accounts for 56% of all Internet resources Social media probably most influential factor of future change Youth spend considerable time using digital devices Social media critical tool for future successful environmental education, campaigns Digitaljournal.com

Outdoor Activity Part. (%) Just playing or hanging out84.0 Biking, jogging, walking, skate boarding, etc Use e-devices, listen to music, or watch movies 65.3 Playing or practicing team sports 49.8 One of the favorite outdoor activities of today’s youth is using electronic devices Source: National Kids Survey, USFS & UGA

Environmental Attitude Changes Hispanic/Latino & Asian growth may increase altruistic values Acculturation, higher incomes, & more consumptive lifestyles may create more egoistic values Women modern roles may increase biospheric & altruistic values Moderated by aging population & associated greater conservatism Young people less oriented to environmental issues Unclear how social networking will affect environmental attitudes May result in greater support & political push for issues

In Summary Long-term trends associated with cultural & ethnic-racial demographic changes may in the net be less pro-environmental Gender, education, urbanization, aging, & generational trends may make society somewhat less pro-environmental Net effect of above factors may be overcome by internet & social media connectivity Rise in environmental concern and support by increased internet & social media connectivity among people in NA & globally