Harvard Extension School – Spring 2012 SSCI E-100b Graduate Research Methods and Scholarly Writing in the Social Sciences: Government and History – Section 1 (23667) Joe & Doug Bond Class 1 January 23, 2012

Introductions Syllabus (posted on Harvard isites) Research Basics Group Exercises In-class Writing Exercise 1

Syllabus word=k70847&pageid=icb.page word=k70847&pageid=icb.page Another useful resource is Note that we prefer APA style.

Basics Qualitative vs. Quantitative Example: Summarization (across multiple documents) Narrative Summaries/Events Data Analysis A.Newsblaster (Columbia U.) B.Events Parsing Why and when to use A and why and when to use B

Variables Independent variables are those variables that help explain a dependent variable Independent variables must be antecedent to dependent variables (e.g. relationship between education and income) Dependent variables are that which you are trying to explain Example: Relationship between SAT scores (IV) and success in college (DV) Dependent variable should always be labeled along the y axis of a graph

Association An Association between two variables: means that the values of one variable tend to coincide (vary or covary) with the values of the another. Example 1: the relationship between sex education and teen pregnancy. Teen pregnancy as the dependent variable, sex education as an independent variable (note: the latter is antecedent to the former). We might expect that sex education programs help mitigate the incidences of teen pregnancy (i.e. they vary: as X goes up, Y goes down). Note that sex education is the independent variable and teen pregnancy is the dependent variable. Example 2: the relationship between education and income, where income is the dependent variable and education is the independent variable. We might expect that the more education one has, the higher their income (i.e. they covary: as X goes up, Y goes up.

Correlation A statistical term that indicates the strength and direction of a linear relationship between variables (e.g. the relationship between education and income) An association or correlation DOES NOT imply causation – Example 1: drowning and consumption of ice cream – Example 2: children’s shoe size and math performance (also highlights the importance of definitions, operationalization and transparency)

More on Correlation Correlation is a measure of the direction and degree of strength between two variables A correlation coefficient (r or Pearson’s r) is a numerical index of that relationship The magnitude of the correlation coefficient indicates the strength of the relationship between the two variables (i.e. -1 to +1) +1 means a perfect positive correlation (co-vary) while -1 shows a perfect negative (vary or inverse) correlation The closer the correlation coefficient is to either -1 or +1 the stronger the relationship

Hypotheses & Null Hypotheses H 1 : as education increases, likelihood of voting increases H 0 : education has no effect on the likelihood over a person voting or not Why do we “test” the null hypothesis? Avoid words like “proves” or “proof” and use “supports,” etc.

Types of Analysis Analysis may have exploratory, descriptive, explanatory, and/or predictive objectives or some combination of these aims

Exploratory Research Generally is undertaken when very little is known about a phenomenon and it forms the foundation for subsequent descriptive and explanatory research (in the early 1980s how many Americans were infected with HIV? This sort of research is often linked with activism)

Descriptive Research Undeniably makes a valuable contribution to science. It serves to identify important areas of inquiry, addressing whether a phenomenon is a common occurrence or a rate event (e.g. describe the population of eligible voters in national elections in the U.S.): Jewish Americans tend to vote for democrats, Catholics tended to vote democratic but the abortion issue has created a split, Mexican Americans tended to vote overwhelmingly democratic but this began to change in 1999 and now it is swinging back to democrat. Observational Research, Historical Research, etc.

Explanatory Research Scientific inquiry usually does not end with description but proceeds to explanation Descriptive findings are likely to lead to the investigation of the factors associated with the outcome and to attempts to understand how these factors contribute to the occurrence of the outcome Understand how something works allows us to better predict the future (applies to both qualitative and quantitative research) Historical Lessons Learned, Couterfactual Thought Experiments, Regression Analysis, etc.

Prediction Typically follows explanatory research but not always! State Failures, Stock Predictions, etc.

Group Exercise Part 1 Select one question for each group and discuss it. We will reconvene for a class discussion Q1: Give an example of a theoretical proposition and a corresponding hypothesis in the social sciences. Q2: Explain how one’s normative assumptions or point of view (biases) can influence one’s practice of social science and explain how it is possible to control for these subjective biases. Q3: How would you respond to the criticism that human behavior cannot be explained, and thus the notion of a social science is an oxymoron? Q4: Explain why “one cannot prove anything in the empirical realm of social science”

Group Exercise Part 2 Select one concept for each group and discuss it. We will reconvene for a class discussion. Define the concept and operationalize the definition? Reconvene to discuss. Attractiveness (Does gender matter? Specifically, are there two or more types of definitions depending on gender?) Democracy Leadership Freedom Love

In-Class Writing Exercise 1 BE SURE TO WRITE YOUR NAME ON THE FRONT OF THE ARTICLE In What Americans Keep Ignoring About Finland's School Success, Anu Partanen asserts, “The problem facing education in America isn't the ethnic diversity of the population but the economic inequality of society, and this is precisely the problem that Finnish education reform addressed.” On the backside of the article only, discuss whether you agree or disagree with her statement and why.