The International, Secular Infant Mortality Decline - The Dual Role of Resources Department of Statistics Universitety of Dar es Salaam December 2005 Gunnar Thorvaldsen Registreringssentral for historiske data

Doctoral candidate Bonaventure Ngowi, studying infant mortality and parity

Infant mortality study As is well known both from historical studies of western countries and current developing countries that the life conditions of the mother is a crucial factor with respect to improving children's health and survival chances. Whether she has the time, resources and knowledge to breast-feed and implement other measures of proper child care has time and again been shown to affect the infant mortality rates dramatically. Doctoral student Ngowi analyzes infant mortality in Tanzania with special reference to child spacing and parity. Since the number of children ever born and surviving is a variable in the Tanzanian census, we shall be able with multivariate statistics to analyse the relationships between infant mortality and the mothers' status in different types of families and households. Administered by SEMUT Centre for Environment and Development studies

... and the superstition surrounding infant care, here magical hut for curing sick babies, Dar es Salaam Village Museum

www. whc. ki. se

Norway and Sweden

Positive effects from resources T. McKeown (The modern rise of population, 1976): Not health, but nutrition behind the mortality decline E. Fure (...en besynderlig Regelmæssighed, 2004): Mothers’ health across generations S. Sogner: Forestry and infant mortality decline in Rendalen T. Bengtsson et al (Life under pressure : mortality and living standards in Europe and Asia, , 2004): the short-term effects of economic stress on mortality Japan’s IMR achievement: > 30.7 per thousand / > 4.8 per thousand S. Hinderaker (Perinatal Mortality and anaemia in pregnancy in Northern Rural Tanzania, 2003): Arm circumference as proxy for infant mortality in Arusha

Deceased 0-1 years by 100 live births Infant mortality in a number of countries

Dead aged 0-1 in Norway relative to live births The country RuralTowns Legitimate Illegitimate Black: boys Red: girls

Main background factors for child mortality in the late 19th century and today Level of economic development Level of technical knowledge about health LowHigh Low 3rd world countries in the 19th century 3rd world countries today High Late 19th century US Developed countries today

Negative or no effect from resources A. Perrenoud (‘La mortalité des enfant en Europe francophone: etat de la question’, 1994): Can infant mortality develop independently from the surrounding social, economic and cultural factors? Climate! O. Turpeinen (‘Infant mortality in Finland ', 1979): “fluctuations from year to year showed little significant correlation with the extent of the harvest yields. The highest rates of infant mortality figures did not appear in the poorest but in relatively wealthy districts” R. Engelsen (Sosiale skilnader i mortalitet på landsbygda i Norge i åra 1802 og 1803, 1982): Higher mortality among farmers than among cottars Ó Garðarsdottir (Saving the Child, 2002): In Reykjavík, the higher social strata initially had higher infant mortality, but benefited sooner from the late 19th century improvements than the lower strata. England and France in the 19th century (Woods, 2000): Earlier decline for older children than for infants K. McQuillan (Culture, religion, and demographic behaviour : Catholics and Lutherans in Alsace, , 1999): Occupational differentials in multivariate study are moderate, some effect for children of workers and servants, else little effect A. Brändström ("De kärlekslösa mödrarna" : spädbarnsdödligheten i Sverige under 1800-talet med särskilt hänsyn till Nedertorneå, 1984)

Infant mortality in Sweden

Infant mortality and social groups Anders Brändström, Demographic Database, Umeå

N. Scheper-Hughes (Death without weeping: the violence of everyday life in Brazil, 1992): The combined effect of economic and cultural factors. Haines & Preston, (Fatal years : child mortality in late nineteenth-century America, 1991): Relatively better child mortality among the black population. D. Reher: (‘Do parents really matter? Child health and development in Spain during the demographic transition’, 2003): Much greater impact from losing mother than losing father, especially educated mother. R Derosas (‘Watch Out for the Children! Differential Infant Mortality of Jews and Catholics in Nineteenth-Century Venice’, 2003): Poor, dense ghetto, but model mothers. Steady decline in infant mortality in Western Europe in the 20th century independent of business cycles. N. Hart (‘Famine, Maternal Nutrition and Infant Mortality: A Re-Examination of the Dutch Hunger Winter’ 1993): Only the better-off were fecund, so perinatal mortality did not increase. N. Morgan (‘Infant mortality in the nineteenth-century Preston’, 2002): Industrial smoke and flies bringing contagion from horse dung affecting infant health negatively in Lancashire M. Federman et al (‘Industrialization and Infant Mortality’, 2005): Higher infant mortality in the areas with the most polluting industry in Indonesia C. Stoltenberg: Higher infant mortality among the children born to Pakistani cousins

Gross national product per person and infant mortality rates in four developing countries A. Kidanemariam: A Comparative Study of Infant Mortality in Four Developing Countries: Bangladesh, Brazil, South Korea and Sri Lanka. New York 2003

Infant mortality rates and key independent variables for four developing countries Sources: GNP and IMR 1999 from CIA World Factbook Kidanemariam A Comparative Study of Infant Mortality in Four Developing Countries: Bangladesh, Brazil, South Korea and Sri Lanka 2003

Background variables Social equality Welfare level Urban / rural Industrialization Pollution Medical services Mothers’ health stations Resourceful individuals Politics Social status Education Nutrition Breastfeeding Infant care Legitimacy Religion Ethnicity

References Denmark: Anne Løkke, Døden i barndommen, København: 1998 Grethe Banggaard, Befolkningsfremmede foranstaltninger og faldende barnedødelighet, Odense Iceland: Òlöf Garðarsdottir: Saving the Child. Regional, cultural and socio- economic aspects of the infant mortality decline in Iceland , 2002 Finland: Kari J. Pitkänen, ”Infant Mortality Decline in a Changing Society,” in Yearbook of Population Research in Finland 1983, Sweden: Sören Edvinsson, Marie C Nelson, John Rogers: Dying Young. Swedish infant and childhood mortality in review. Hygiea Internationalis. Norway: Rural infant mortality in nineteenth century Norway. Hygiea Internationalis: Classic work on neonatology:

Tidsskrift for Den norske lægeforening 76 (1955), side

Denmark

Biometric test - Norway

Iceland 1920 Survival in days of breast-fed and artificially fed infants in a fishing village in Iceland

x

Causes of death

Infant mortality in Norway

IMR in Norway

IMR around 1920

Dead infants by month of year

Percent of live births Source: Johannessen (1902) Dead 0-1 in Norway by age in months

IMR by province