2025: 20% doctor included? an exercise in technology speculation & musings vinod

10% to 20% of cases: delayed, missed, and incorrect diagnosis graber, et al., jama 2

40,000+ patients in u.s. icus may die with a misdiagnosis annually winters, et al., bmj quality & safety 3

in many records of patients with a high-risk diagnosis, high-information clinical findings were present before the diagnosis was established feldman, et al., jamia 4

50% of MDs are below-average math 5

human doctors cognitive limitations cognitive biases 6

a study of one hundred cases of diagnostic error involving internists found… 7

…system-related factors contributed to the diagnostic error in 65% of the cases and cognitive factors in 74%... 8

…premature closure was the single most common cause 9

the value of second opinions cleveland clinic doctors’ review of initial diagnosis

for most study designs and settings, it is more likely for a research claim to be false than true john ioannidis 11

wide ranges of uncertainty 0% 0.2% 0.5% 1% 1% 1% 1.5% 1.5% 2% 3% 3% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 8% 10% 10% 10% 10% 13% 13% 15% 15% 18% 20% 20% 20% 25% 25% 25% 30% 30% 40% 50% 50% 50% 62% 70% 73% 75% 75% 75% 75% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 100% eddy, et al., jama12 fifty-eight experts’ estimates of the chance of an outcome of an important procedure

wide ranges of uncertainty eddy, et al., jama13 seventeen experts’ estimates of the effect of screening on colon cancer deaths 0%25%50%75%100% proportion of colon cancer deaths prevented = one expert’s response

surgeons were given detailed diagnoses & asked if patients should get surgery … half said yes … the other half said no … when asked again two years later, 40% of the docs gave a different answer eddy, et al., jama14

there is good reason to challenge the assumption that every individual practitioner's decision is necessarily correct eddy, et al., jama 15

would a hospital cure you in half the time… …if it meant cutting their business in half? 16

hundreds of “experts” … 28,000+ forecasts over 20+ years results: “experts” are poorer forecasters than dart-throwing monkeys the folly of experts: tetlock study

entrepreneurs will ask the naïve questions that uncover hidden assumptions… …and move us to the grey zone of “speculations” 18

in the future, patients will have the data & analysis to become the CEO of your own health peter diamandis 19

80% of what MDs do can be replaced (with better care than the average MD)… …but not every MD function will be replaced 20

lifecom CHAMP I …distributed care with medical assistants were 91% accurate without labs, imaging, or exams II …“safe triage” with 75% physician bypass rate for acute care encounters 21

isabel II matched expert diagnoses 95% of the time 22

machines are better at integrative medicine… …across “all symptoms”, demeanor, patient history, phone activity, 1000s of data points, genomics, population management guidelines, … …and machines won’t have to win every red state and blue state… …they’ll just be better overall 23

the “human” element of care can be provided by the most “humane” humans (and MDs can be humane) 24

the transition will start with “toddler MDs” and digital first-aid kits 25

dr. algorithm v0 26

keep people out of the doctor’s office… …with point innovations in cardiology, dermatology, optometry, psychiatry, internal medicine, … 27

healthcare service stations & digital first aid kits 28

...and your innovation here (call us) 29

…will become a wave… …and grow into a tsunami innocuous point innovations… 30

dr. algorithm v0 v1 – 2015 v2 – 2017 v3 – 2019 v4 – 2021 v5 – 2023 v6 – 2025 … 31

we’ll start with clumsy point innovations like alivecor, cellscope, adamant, ginger.io, neurotrek, consumer physics, jawbone, misfit, … …“insighted” by Ayasdi… …leading us to discover things we never knew were right in front of us 32

the best MDs will train systems over 10 years… …systems will symbiotically provide “bionic assist” and “AMPLIFY” MDs 33

dr. house+++ will be the trainer for dr. algorithm …no manners required! …but manners learned! 34

findings thanks to data using statins for in-hospital stroke patients reduced the death rate by 40%! kaiser permanente35

36 the practice of medicine the science of medicine

there aren’t enough rural doctors in india and few have access to jama journals, mris, … …the world of medicine is under-resourced globally 37

the shift to “computerization” has already happened in other areas… …airline pilots, stock trading, car driving 38

I will be wrong on the specifics but directionally right 39

20% doctor included? vinod 40