Envision Tomorrow + Fiscal Impact Tool (ET+FIT) July 16 th, 2013

FIT Discussion Topics ET+FIT Overview Revenue Projections Expenditure Projections Output and Summary

Model Overview Method based on the Federal Reserve Fiscal Impact Tool (FIT) – County-level analysis – Aggregates all sub-county jurisdictions – Provides a standardized method for conducting planning-based fiscal assessments Revenues & Cost based on the Census of Gov’t finance data (2010) – Provides user override for all assumptions User inputs: – County / Municipal population – Annual taxable sales (County total & City) – Property & Sales tax rates (weighted average) – Property assessment ratios (weighted average) – Added population & employment (from ET+) – Added project value by land-use (from ET+)

FIT MODEL ANNUAL REVENUE ANNUAL EXPENDITURE NET BENEFIT PROJECTED REVENUE PROJECTED EXPENDITURE EXISTING CONDITIONS FUTURE SCENARIOS What drives the model?

Existing Conditions What is the current fiscal outlook? Census of Governments (2010) -County-level data -Annual revenue, capital outlays, operations & maintenance Local data (2011) -Taxable sales -Tax rates -Assessment Ratios

Local Data Sources More recent data (2011) gathered for each city, village and township and aggregated to the county level: State Auditor of Ohio - Summarized 2011 Annual Financial Data for all jurisdictions Ohio Department of Taxation – Sales tax and property tax rates for all jurisdictions Assessor’s Data– Assessed land and building valuation at the parcel level as an input to property tax calculations Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics Data (Census)– Counts of employment by location as an input to municipal income tax calculations FIT Data Sheet

FIT MODEL FUTURE SCENARIOS

Scenario Impact FIT MODEL Population change Employment change Private investment (value of new construction) Infrastructure costs Sample of ET+ Output

What is Envision Tomorrow? Suite of planning tools: Prototype Builder Return on Investment (ROI) model Scenario Builder Extension for ArcGIS

Density & Mix Travel Health Sustainability Investment Fiscal Impact A Linked System of Spreadsheets and GIS 5 Story Mixed Use 2 Story Mixed Use 3 Story Apartment Townhome Compact Single Family Conventional Single Family Buildings ROI Model GIS Painting ArcGIS Town Center Town Neighborhood Residential Subdivision Evaluation Criteria Scenario Spreadsheet Development Types Scenario Spreadsheet

Scenario Building Process Building Types Development Types Scenario Development Evaluation Step 1: Model a library of building types that are financially feasible at the local level. 1

Building Prototypes Density and Design Rents, Sales Prices Market Value Employment Population Costs and Affordability Energy and Water Use

Use Real-World Examples Rents, sales prices calibrated to NEO region Design and density modeled using local examples

Scenario Building Process Building Types Development Types Scenario Development Evaluation Step 2: Define the buildings, streets and amenities that make up all the “places” in which we live, work and play. 2

Development Type Mix A Variety of Buildings, Streets and Amenities Create a “Place” Town Center Medium-Density Residential Single-Family Residential

Development Types are Scalable from Parcels to Districts Include one or many building types depending on scenario planning geography Parcels, Census Blocks, uniform grid

Place Types Composed of Regionally Calibrated Prototype Buildings Place Types Mix of Buildings

Place Types Include Street Characteristics

Housing Units per Acre Jobs per AcreStreet Lane Miles per Acre Intersection Density per Sq Mi 40 DU/Gross Acre50 Jobs/Gross Acre Place Type Example: Urban Center

Scenario Building Process Building Types Development Types Scenario Development Evaluation Step 3: Paint future land use scenarios to test the implications of different decisions or policies. 3

Hard Costs and Revenue From New Construction PRIVATE INVESTMENT + EMPLOYMENT CAPITAL OUTLAYS (INFRASTRUCTURE COSTS) TO FISCAL IMPACT TOOL NEW CONSTRUCTION

Scenario Building Process Building Types Development Types Scenario Development Evaluation Step 4: Compare the scenarios and monitor the impact of land use decisions in real-time. 4

Questions? ET+FIT Overview Up Next: Revenue Projections Expenditure Projections Output and Summary

Projecting Future Revenue ET+ FIT applies user-defined tax rates to scenario-defined population, employment, and building values. Revenue projections – Property tax – Sales tax – Income tax – Non-tax revenue Sewerage Solid waste Utility Intergovernmental FIT MODEL PROJECTED REVENUE USER-DEFINED TAX RATES

Sales Tax Revenue Projection Annual sales tax revenue = [Total payroll in scenario] x [% consumer dollars spent subject to sales tax] Payroll based on County Business Patterns (CBP) data and scenario employment by sector

Property Tax Revenue Projection Annual scenario property tax revenue = [market value of scenario construction] x [millage rate] x [assessment ratio] Broken out by residential and commercial property types

Income Tax Revenue Projection [annual average wage by sector] x [scenario employment by sector] * [weighted average income tax rate] Weighted average based on municipal population ratio – incorporated v.s. unincorporated population in county

Proportional Ramp-up Projecting Future Sales Tax Revenue TIME TAX REVENUE We assume that the scenario ramps up at a constant rate over the scenario period For example, over a period of 30 years – 3.3% per year

Non-Tax Revenue Projection Assume a constant per-capita revenue [current non-tax revenue per person]*[new population in scenario] NON-TAX REVENUE POPULATION

Questions? ET+FIT Overview Revenue Projections Up Next: Expenditure Projections Output and Summary

Projecting Future Expenditures One-time expenditures (capital outlays) – New roadways, sewage treatment plant, school construction On-going expenditures (operations & maintenance) – Public safety, housing and community development, roadway maintenance FIT MODEL PROJECTED EXPENDITURE

Capital Outlay Projection Envision Tomorrow + tracks capital outlay costs related to infrastructure: – Roads – lane miles of new roadway – Utilities – miles of overhead electric – Water/Sewerage – lineal feet of pipe

Development Type Assumptions Each development type has associated road lane miles per vacant acre assumptions Less than 100% of these are publicly financed City Architecture provided estimates of % publicly financed by development type It is assumed that sewer, water, and utilities scale with miles of new roadway Sample of Development Type Street Assumptions

Infrastructure Cost Assumptions New Infrastructure Costs (Capital Costs only) UnitCost New RoadwayLane Mile $ 1,700,000 StreetscapeLineal Foot $ - SewerageLineal Foot $ 100 Utilities - above-groundMile $ 600,000 Water LinesLineal Foot $ 227 Source: Road – Arkansas DOT Utilities - Western Mass. Electric Company Sewerage – Dept. of Public Works, Ipswich, MA Water Lines – Dept. of Public Works, Baltimore, MD

Operations and Maintenance (O&M) Projection The following categories are tracked: – Education – Hospitals – Roads – Police – Fire – Parks – Sewerage – Solid Waste – Utility

Operations and Maintenance (O&M) Projection ET+FIT uses scenario capital outlay to “pivot” around existing annual per capita O&M Future O&M is a factor of the change in average annual capital outlays Future per capita O&M = [Baseline per capita O&M] x [% change in average annual capital outlay] In estimating future O&M costs, it is assumed that all roads in a shared right of way will eventually be publicly maintained, even if privately constructed.

Level of Service Assumption Projecting Future O&M POPULATION OPERATIONS AND MAINTENANCE We assume a fixed level of service. Per capita O&M stays constant as population increases

Questions? ET+FIT Overview Revenue Projections Expenditure Projections Up Next: Output and Summary

Outputs ET+FIT calculates the net present value of expenditure and revenue over the forecast horizon Discount rate of 3.8% is same as the average federal funds rate over the last 30 years ( ), less inflation (2%) FIT MODEL NET BENEFIT PROJECTED REVENUE PROJECTED EXPENDITURE PROJECT ASSUMPTIONS Scenario 1 Years from up front to on-going1 Discount Rate3.8% Period/Years30 User enters rate and forecast period:

Outputs Ramp- Up path: RawInflatedDiscounted Year 1 3% $43,465,920$44,543,874$43,037,560 Year 2 6% $43,465,920$45,648,562$42,613,422 Year 3 10% $43,465,920$46,780,647$42,193,463 Year 4 13% $43,465,920$47,940,807$41,777,644 Year 5 16% $43,465,920$49,129,739$41,365,922 Year 6 20% $43,465,920$50,348,156$40,958,258 Year 7 23% $43,465,920$51,596,791$40,554,611 Year 8 26% $43,465,920$52,876,391$40,154,942 Year 9 30% $43,465,920$54,187,726$39,759,213 Year 10 33% $43,465,920$55,531,581$39,367,383 Year 11 36% $43,465,920$56,908,764$38,979,414 Year 12 40% $43,465,920$58,320,102$38,595,269 Year 13 43% $43,465,920$59,766,440$38,214,910 Year 14 46% $43,465,920$61,248,648$37,838,299 Year 15 50% $43,465,920$62,767,614$37,465,400 Year 16 53% $43,465,920$64,324,251$37,096,176 Year 17 56% $43,465,920$65,919,493$36,730,590 Year 18 60% $43,465,920$67,554,296$36,368,608 Year 19 63% $43,465,920$69,229,643$36,010,193 Year 20 66% $43,465,920$70,946,538$35,655,310 Year 21 70% $43,465,920$72,706,012$35,303,924 Year 22 73% $43,465,920$74,509,121$34,956,001 Year 23 76% $43,465,920$76,356,947$34,611,507 Year 24 80% $43,465,920$78,250,600$34,270,408 Year 25 83% $43,465,920$80,191,214$33,932,671 Year 26 86% $43,465,920$82,179,957$33,598,262 Year 27 90% $43,465,920$84,218,019$33,267,149 Year 28 93% $43,465,920$86,306,626$32,939,299 Year 29 96% $43,465,920$88,447,031$32,614,679 Year % $43,465,920$90,640,517$32,293,259 Discount rates are applied to costs and revenues over the forecast horizon. User can define when costs and revenues “ramp up”

Summary The summary tab aggregates existing costs and revenues with 30 year cost and revenue streams to provide a revenue/cost ratio If revenue/cost ratio is positive, revenue exceeds costs over the forecast horizon. Net reduction tells us the direct impact of the scenario on the cost to revenue ratio. Positive means that there was a negative impact. Scenario tells us the revenue/cost ratio of the scenario development by itself. 30 yr.Net reductionScenario Revenue/Cost Ratio16.83%-12.32%65.25%

Scenario 1 RevenueCost30 yr. Net Stream Value of chosen time horizon, in years:$783,436,635$2,411,190,316-$1,627,753,681 Total, One-Time and Ongoing$783,436,635$3,314,830,336-$2,531,393,701 One-time$0$903,640,020 Ongoing$62,071,065 Education $101,852,568 Everything Else $89,184,133 Revenue Source Taxes/Fees$6,655,054 Intergovernmental Transfers$53,863,862 Utilities/Services$1,946,688 Summary Annual “full ramp-up” costs and revenues are broken out into categories SummaryOutput tab

Questions? ET+FIT Overview Revenue Projections Expenditure Projections Output and Summary