The future of electromobility? Vehicle R&D at CEVT The future of electromobility? Dr. Börje Grandin Director Hybrid Technologies

Legislation one driver for new CO2 technology! Regulations Worldwide – Technology impact Observation: All regulations are merging and will be below 100g in the future Conclusion: Technology for reaching low CO2 must be adopted to a global market.

Test cycle for fuel consumption measurements in Product Planning Fuel consumption can be reduced in 4 areas – New technology influence all 4 areas positively Fuel consumption reduction, 4 steps 2. Using Energy Measures to improve: Reduce energy consumption of the vehicle– friction & losses Improved transmissions Downsizing ICE Test cycle for fuel consumption measurements in China and Europe 3. Energy recovery Measures to improve: Stop-Start – Smart generator strategy Hybrids 1. Waste of Energy Measures to improve: Stop-Start – ICE off during vehicle stop Hybrids 4. Shift away from oil based fuels Measures to improve: Plug in Hybrids Pure Electric vehicles Fuel cell vehicles

New technology… Do we need it? Conventional technology capable… New Technololgy needed … 25% P/T eff. 125 95g /km legal req. 35% P/T eff. = top performers! 100 70g /km legal req. Volvo V40 75 50% P/T eff. = Very unlikely! CO2 NED-C g/km 50 Presentation: (klick) Lagkrav 2020 95g/km.. Två linjer inritade som anger vilken verkjningsgrad på drivlinan som krävs för en fossilbaserad drivlina.. Med Gen III vea klarar vi 95 gram… men (klick) ny gränsen för EU diskuteras på 70g 2025… Volvo har certifierat V40 MY2013 till 88g CO2… vilket är outstanding och best in class. En konventionell ICE kopplat till transmission klarar maximalt 40-45% verkningsgrad..vid absolut bästa punkten. Alltså finns den en vattendelare för vad en konventionell teknik klarar.. Elektrifiering är helt enkelt nödvändig! Den svarta prickade linjen indikerar ca 40% efficiency.. Under denna linje kommer konventionell teknik inte att kunna leverera… Fysikens lagar sätter gränsen. 25 1000 1500 2000 kg Nb! Peak efficiency of an ICE~45%, transmission ~95%  42%...

Legislation one driver for new CO2 technology! Regulations Worldwide – Technology impact Observation: All regulations are merging and will be below 100g in the future Conclusion: Technology for reaching low CO2 must be adopted to a global market. We need to include a shift away from oil based fuels

Could the battery vehicle be mainstream? Running costs are lower for electric vehicle! Assumption: 200 Wh/km for electric vehicle and 5l gasoline per 100km Example: 15000 km / year 1:50 SEK / kWh & 15 SEK/l gasoline  6750 SEK lower cost for electric vehicle per year How many years to pay of the battery investment? …  Om vi lyckas erbjuda en bil där cost of ownership betalas redan för första kunden är marknaden vidöppen. Andrahandsvärdet på bilen bör kunna hållas högt då kostnaden för andra kund på bilen är mycket låg. Detta hjälper upp kalkylen för första kunden.

Could the battery vehicle be mainstream? Investment* for 25kWh: DoE target ~25kSEK 2020+ est. ~50kSEK 2015 cost ~75kSEK Difference in running costs El. Vs Gasoline 15000 km/yr 20000 km/yr Om vi lyckas erbjuda en bil där cost of ownership betalas redan för första kunden är marknaden vidöppen. Andrahandsvärdet på bilen bör kunna hållas högt då kostnaden för andra kund på bilen är mycket låg. Detta hjälper upp kalkylen för första kunden. *Investment with 3% cost of capital

The battery vehicle as mainstream If a 2020 DoE target price for batteries will happen it is likely The customer will decide However: Recharging still limits usable range Volume & weight will limit installed capacity BEV will be an excellent commuter vehicle

PHEV or Battery vehicle?... Or both? Electric vehicle Battery cost Plug-in Hybrid Cost Conventionell ICE Vehicle Larger tank… Driving distance ?

Sizing the battery for every day driving 50km e-drive covers the daily driving for more than 50% of the population… By providing a charge station during the day, a higher percentage of the population would be covered. Published May 2013 by US NRC

Higher priced vehicles have a lower market share  Low on-cost solutions will be needed Conventional vehicle HEV vehicle PHEV vehicle Sale volume BEV vehicle Vehicle Price Even Though a PHEV vehicle is a more cost effective way of reducing CO2, Mild hybrids might be needed as it is a lower cost technology

What is needed to get a large impact? Reduce on-cost of electrification Standards Infrastructure for charging Sustainable production of electricity Date Created: [YYYY-MM-DD]

Reduce on-cost of electrification Technology breakthrough in battery or continuous energy transfer Target ~1000sek/kWh for 2020 for 10kWh battery pack Integrated solutions to reduced complexity of systems Combine all power electronics Combine electric motor & power electronics Integrated electric motors in transmissions Lower cost system components Electric distribution system, cables connectors etc.. Radiators and heat exchangers should be standard Low cost internal combustion engines Date Created: [YYYY-MM-DD] Issuer: [Name] [CDS-ID]; [Organisation]; [Name of document]; Security Class: [Proprietary]

Cost for Future power train? Driving distance Electric vehicle Plug-in Hybrid Conventionell ICE Vehicle ? Electric vehicle Battery cost Plug-in Hybrid Cost Conventionell ICE Vehicle Driving distance ? 99010 B. Grandin, VCC EPS Strategy

Conclusions Costs of electrification will come down When electrification on-cost is in a range were first owners will have a return of investment, electrification will be mainstream! PHEV and BEV will have different users BEV: Short distance commuting PHEV: Short distance commuting + occasional long distance We will see both PHEV and BEV in the future

Integrated solutions, reduced complexity of systems Examples Cooling systems. We have three levels of cooling in hybrids ICE @90-110deg C. HV electronics ~50deg C Batteries ~20-30deg C Integration of HV electronics with el motors, combination charger & inverter, … Integration of electric motors into the conventional drivetrain

Lower cost system components Lower cost for ICE in hybrids Current technology trend is downsizing  Complex charging technology, Turbos, camshifting etc.. Expensive materials to cope with high power density Expensive emission solutions to meet legislation Hybrids can reduce cost on ICE by reducing transient requirements Date Created: [YYYY-MM-DD] Issuer: [Name] [CDS-ID]; [Organisation]; [Name of document]; Security Class: [Proprietary]

Cost development of batteries DoE target 2020 Cost estimated by study of battery costs for “Utredning Fosil Fri Fordonsflotta 2030”

Battery technology We need new technology to achieve competitive technology for electrification New technologies for batteries? Continuous energy transfer? PHEV Vs. battery vehicle?

Battery technology Vs. fossil Fuel Energy Current battery cell technology ~150Wh /kg Diesel energy 11800 Wh/kg Charging time: Battery with fast charging 22kW results in ~140km range per hour Diesel charging ~1000km range in two minutes…

Current PHEV PT cost split 11% Brakes, cooling etc.. 24% Electric motors & inverters 37% ICE + Transmission Batteries are aproximately 45-50% of the on-cost of electrification 28% Batteries

Cost for reducing CO2 with different electrification technology RMB / g CO2 reduction Start / Stop Mild Hybrid PHEV BEV Start / Stop ~5-8g reduction depending on engine and vehicle. Mild Hybrid ~10-15g reduction using 48V Technology. PHEV ~80-90g reduction. BEV ~88 -145g reduction.

CEVT organisation

Current market situation Market is increasing! China is still not moving… (However strongly motivated) Japan mature US rising EU still lagging..