ECONOMIC INDICATORS. Understanding Economic Indicators  Background Economic Theme: Recognize the stage of the business cycle.

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Presentation transcript:

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Understanding Economic Indicators  Background Economic Theme: Recognize the stage of the business cycle.

Cycle of the Indicator  Leading indicator: used to predict changes in the economy. Its trajectory changes before the economy follows a particular pattern. i.e. Conference Board LI  Coincident indicator: varies simultaneously with the business cycle. It indicates current economic conditions. i.e. industrial production  Lagged indicator: follows the business cycle with lags. It illustrates where the economy has been. i.e. corporate profits

Nominal vs Real

Adjusted vs Non-adjusted

Growth Rates

Indicators by Sector of Economic Activity

GDP  Published by: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)  Frequency: Quarterly  Period Covered: Prior quarter  Market significance: High Best measure of economic activity Best measure of economic activity  Economic Indicators.gov Economic Indicators.gov Economic Indicators.gov

Consumer Spending

Personal Income and Spending  Published by: BEA  Frequency: monthly  Period Covered: prior month  Market significance: Moderate Accounts for about 2/3 of real GDP but undergoes frequent revisions Accounts for about 2/3 of real GDP but undergoes frequent revisions  Economic Indicators.gov Economic Indicators.gov Economic Indicators.gov

Car and Truck Sales  Published by: Motor Vehicle Manufacturers and Importers  Frequency: Monthly  Period Covered: Prior month  Market significance: moderate Leading indicator of economic activity. Undergoes revisions. Leading indicator of economic activity. Undergoes revisions.

Retail Sales  Published by: Bureau of the Census  Frequency: Monthly  Period Covered: Prior month  Market significance: High First indicator of consumer activity First indicator of consumer activity  Latest Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Latest Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Latest Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services

Home Sales  Published by: Bureau of the Census  Frequency: monthly  Period Covered: prior month  Market significance: moderate Leading indicator of economic activity. High volatility. Leading indicator of economic activity. High volatility. bin/briefroom/BriefRm bin/briefroom/BriefRm bin/briefroom/BriefRm bin/briefroom/BriefRm

Consumer Credit  Published by: Federal Reserve Board  Frequency: monthly  Period Covered: two prior months  Market significance: moderate Indicator of the financial health of consumers. But comes in late. Indicator of the financial health of consumers. But comes in late.

Consumer Confidence Measures  Published by: University of Michigan, the Conference Board, and ABC News.  Frequency: monthly  Period Covered: varies  Market significance: moderate Leading indicator of consumer spending. Leading indicator of consumer spending. board.org/economics/ConsumerConfidence.cf m board.org/economics/ConsumerConfidence.cf m

Industrial Activity

ISM Manufacturing Survey  Published by: Institute for Supply Management (ISM)  Frequency: Monthly  Period Covered: Prior month  Market significance: Very high First report on industrial activity. First report on industrial activity. avItemNumber= avItemNumber= avItemNumber= avItemNumber=12942

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization  Published by: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System  Frequency: monthly  Period Covered: prior month  Market significance: moderate Good forecast of business cycle. Good forecast of business cycle.

Housing Starts/Building Permits  Published by: Bureau of the Census  Frequency: monthly  Period Covered: prior month  Market significance: moderate Good predictor of business cycle. Subject to revisions. Good predictor of business cycle. Subject to revisions.

Durable Goods Orders  Published by: Bureau of the Census  Frequency: monthly  Period Covered: prior month  Market significance: high Key indicator on future manufacturing. Key indicator on future manufacturing.

Construction Expenditures  Published by: Bureau of the Census  Frequency: monthly  Period Covered: prior month  Market significance: low Good coverage. But late and with major revisions Good coverage. But late and with major revisions  pdf pdf pdf

Business Inventories and Sales  Published by: Bureau of the Census  Frequency: monthly  Period Covered: two prior months  Market significance: low Inventories affect the pace of future industrial activity. But report comes in late. Inventories affect the pace of future industrial activity. But report comes in late.

Factory Orders and Manufacturing Inventories  Published by: Bureau of the Census  Frequency: monthly  Period Covered: two prior months  Market significance: low Overlapping information with the Advanced Report on Durable Goods Overlapping information with the Advanced Report on Durable Goods

Productivity and Costs  Published by: BEA  Frequency: quarterly  Period Covered: prior quarter  Market significance: moderate Useful information about inflation, however, it is subject to substantial revisions. Useful information about inflation, however, it is subject to substantial revisions.

Government Spending

Federal Budget  Published by: Treasury Department  Frequency: monthly  Period Covered: prior month  Market significance: low

Foreign Sector

Merchandise Trade Balance  Published by: Bureau of the Census  Frequency: monthly  Period Covered: two prior months  Market significance: moderate  trade/Press- Release/current_press_release/ft900.pdf trade/Press- Release/current_press_release/ft900.pdf trade/Press- Release/current_press_release/ft900.pdf

Current Account Balance  Published by: BEA  Frequency: Quarterly  Period Covered: Previous quarter  Market significance: moderate

Foreign Industrial Productions  Japan Industrial Production Published by: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, JapanPublished by: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan Frequency: MonthlyFrequency: Monthly Period covered: Previous monthPeriod covered: Previous month  China Industrial Production Published by: National Bureau of Statistics of ChinaPublished by: National Bureau of Statistics of China Frequency: MonthlyFrequency: Monthly Period covered: Previous monthPeriod covered: Previous month  German Industrial Production Published by: Federal Statistics Office, GermanyPublished by: Federal Statistics Office, Germany Frequency: MonthlyFrequency: Monthly Period covered: Previous monthPeriod covered: Previous month

Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index  Published by: JP Morgan  Frequency: monthly  Period Covered: prior month  Market significance: moderate  ?ItemNumber= ?ItemNumber= ?ItemNumber=17719

OECD Composite Leading Indicators  Published by: OECD  Frequency: monthly  Period Covered: prior month  Market significance: moderate

Labor Market

Employment (payroll employment and unemployment rate)  Published by: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)  Frequency: Monthly  Period Covered: prior month  Market significance: very high First complete look at economic activity. First complete look at economic activity.  t.pdf t.pdf t.pdf

Employment Cost Index  Published by: BLS  Frequency: quarterly  Period Covered: prior quarter  Market significance: moderate Comprehensive measure of labor cost. But published only quarterly. Comprehensive measure of labor cost. But published only quarterly.

Unemployment Insurance Claims  Published by: U.S. Department of Labor  Frequency: weekly  Period Covered: prior week  Market significance: moderate Accurate in gauging labor market conditions. Accurate in gauging labor market conditions.

Inflation

Producer Price Index  Published by: BLS  Frequency: monthly  Period Covered: prior month  Market significance: high Good measure of inflation. Good measure of inflation.

Consumer Price Index  Published by: BLS  Frequency: monthly  Period Covered: prior month  Market significance: high Key measure of inflation Key measure of inflation  f f f

Specialized Indicators

Cyclical Indicators  Published by: BEA/The Conference Board  Frequency: monthly  Period Covered: prior month  Market significance: moderate