Climate Change and Peel Region. Adaptation to WHAT? Shuttle Mission Topography/Elevation data Neil Comer, Simon Eng, Heather Auld, Erik Sparling TRCA logo??? CC-RAI logo???

Weather: Conditions today and over the next few days; “operate day-to-day based on weather” Climate: Weather over time: Its Extremes, Trends, Changes; “plan on longer term based on climate” Climate consists of: Average weather – now with new averages and trends Celebrity high impact storms, the “unusual” January 12, 2013: High of 14.8C broke records from

Peel Region Climate and Weather Events October 29, 2012: Remnants of Hurricane Sandy… “In Mississauga, 2,000 customers reported being without power.” March 22, 2012: Toronto Pearson high temperature reaches 26.0 C; warmest March on record for many stations (Toronto Pearson & City) Winter : warmest in Canada since nationwide records began in °C above normal; Lake Ontario temperatures peak at 24C July 21, 2011: Toronto Pearson Humidex exceeds 48; extreme at 50.3 in July, 1995

Peel Region Climate and Weather Events October 29, 2012: Remnants of Hurricane Sandy… “In Mississauga, 2,000 customers reported being without power.” March 22, 2012: Toronto Pearson high temperature reaches 26.0 C; warmest March on record for many stations (Toronto Pearson & City) Winter : warmest in Canada since nationwide records began in °C above normal; Lake Ontario temperatures peak at 24C August 4, 2009: One hour rainfall from a Mississauga gauge exceeded 1 in 100 year event; flooding damages private properties, municipal and Peel Region infrastructure Tornadoes in Peel Region: June & May 31, 1980, Brampton; July 7, 1985 Meadowvale; June 1923, Hornby to Long Branch; etc.

2007: Toronto Pearson experienced driest summer in nearly 50 years with 95 consecutive days without significant rainfall. Lake Ontario water levels down 0.25 metre from long-term average Peel Region Climate and Weather Events 2009: tornado outbreaks; > 18 tornadoes; Vaughan tornado > $10M in damages; largest single-day tornado outbreak in Canadian history 2005: southern Ontario tornado outbreak Kitchener-Oshawa; Finch Ave washout; ~100mm/hour; highest insured loss in Ontario’s history Winter, : Pearson snow total 194 cm; 13 cm shy of record… Summer 2008: wettest June, July and August on record (396 mm).

January, 1999: Snowiest two-week period since 1846 Winter, 2001: 104 day stretch with snow on the ground; longest snowcover period in record (dating to 1840) Summer, 2001: Driest summer in 54 years of records (Pearson) Peel Region Climate and Weather Events 2005: southern Ontario tornado outbreak Kitchener-Oshawa; Finch Ave washout; ~100mm/hour; highest insured loss in Ontario’s history Climate variability and extremes… May 12, 2000: Severe t-storms; “extensive damage” Port Credit Yacht Club, power outages Brampton and Mississauga Tornadoes in Peel Region: June & May 31, 1980, Brampton; July 7, 1985 Meadowvale; June 1923, Hornby to Long Branch; etc.

Updated Climate Normals (Averages) indicate that Toronto Pearson Airport has warmed significantly … YYZ Annual Mean Temperatures (Normals) C C C Toronto’s Climate has been changing in many ways…

U.S. study: >75%of natural disasters are triggered directly or indirectly by weather and climate Need to protect critical municipal assets & services – water, transportation, telecomm, buildings and shelters, electricity, energy Why the concern over weather, climate and its changes?

hurricane flood heat cold wind ice storm tornado lightning/ thunderstorm drought Weather Hazards from the “Top 10” List: HIRA’s web-based and survey (226 municipalities) blizzard/snowstorm fog 41% of Ontario municipalities named power failures in their top 10 hazards 63% municipalities in this region named power failure in the top 10 hazards hail

STRUCTURES Ice Storms and Wet Snow Rainfall Intensity & Accum. Extreme Winds Summer Storms & Tornadoes Extreme Snow Power Lines & Transmission Structures FAILURE ice + wind ADDITIVEFAILURE SOME Communication FAILURE ice + wind ADDITIVEFAILURE SOME Buildings WET SNOW DRAINAGE & FAILURE FAILURE Roads, Bridges OPERATION RISKS DRAINAGE & EROSION OPERATION & RISKS FAILURE RISK OPERATION Stormwater & Wastewater POWER FAILURES TOTAL FAILURE POWER FAILURES FAILURERISKS Water Supply & Distribution POWER FAILURES DROUGHT POWER FAILURE POWER FAILURE RISKS Risks to Various Infrastructure Types from Increasing Climate/Weather Extremes (Frequencies/Intensities)

Flexible adaptation options: Work with Infrastructure Lifecycles

“Tornado proofing”: Building Code &“tornado prone” regions

Confirmed and Probable Tornadoes by Fujita Scale – Revised and Updated Database (to 2009)

Southern Peel Region Temperature Trends Average Highs Average Lows Daily Averages

Many implications for a changing climate…. Requiring adaptation

Toronto and southern Ontario lie in the path of many storm tracks – wide variety of climate hazards

Climate Change and Peel Region. Adaptation to WHAT? Shuttle Mission Topography/Elevation data Neil Comer Neil Comer, Simon Eng, Heather Auld, Erik Sparling

Environment Canada Stations Data Length

EC Intensity-Duration-Frequency Stations in the Area (extreme rainfall)

Environment Canada Lightning Detection Network (Proxy for extreme events?)

EC – Long Term Historical Climate Indices - Other climate indices have also been calculated using this dataset Temperature Stations Precipitation Stations

Wave and Wind Statistics -Also ice coverage, freezeup/breakup (erosion protection) -Also 2 buoys in western Lake Ontario (seasonal) (45139, 45159)

Historical Wind Frequency and Strength – Pearson A, Toronto Island A

For projections… There have been a few local projects already: 1.PRECIS – U Regina report for MOE 2.Statistical downscaling (95 locations) for MOE 3.WRF Regional Climate Model – (U of T) for MOE 4.SENES Future Weather and climate driver Report for City of Toronto Global models: 24 models in the last assessment (2007), but in the new assessment (2013) there are about 40 models available from which we can calculate an ensemble Additional variables/indices can be calculated from model output (next slide)

27 PROJECTED Climate Change Core Indices (useful for this study?) : 1. FD, Number of frost days: Annual count of days when TN (daily minimum temperature) < 0 o C 2. SU, Number of summer days: Annual count of days when TX (daily maximum temperature) > 25 o C. 3. ID, Number of icing days: Annual count of days when TX (daily maximum temperature) < 0 o C. 4. TR, Number of tropical nights: Annual count of days when TN (daily minimum temperature) > 20 o C. 5. GSL, Growing season length: Annual (1 st Jan to 31 st Dec in Northern Hemisphere count between first span of at least 6 days with daily mean temperature TG>5 o C and first span after July 1 st of 6 days with TG<5 o C. 6. TX x, Monthly maximum value of daily maximum temperature: 7. TN x, Monthly maximum value of daily minimum temperature: 8. TX n, Monthly minimum value of daily maximum temperature: 9. TN n, Monthly minimum value of daily minimum temperature: 10. TN10p, Percentage of days when TN < 10 th percentile: 11. TX10p, Percentage of days when TX < 10 th percentile: 12. TN90p, Percentage of days when TN > 90 th percentile: 13. TX90p, Percentage of days when TX > 90 th percentile: 14. WSDI, Warm spell duration index: Annual count of days with at least 6 consecutive days when TX > 90 th percentile

15. CSDI, Cold spell duration index: Annual count of days with at least 6 consecutive days when TN < 10 th percentile 16. DTR, Daily temperature range: Monthly mean difference between TX and TN 17. Rx1day, Monthly maximum 1-day precipitation: 18. Rx5day, Monthly maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation: 19. SDII Simple precipitation intensity index: the daily precipitation amount on wet days, (RR ≥ 1mm), divided by number of wet days. 20. R10mm Annual count of days when PRCP≥ 10mm 21. R20mm Annual count of days when PRCP≥ 20mm: 22. User defined PRCP threshold. 23. CDD. Maximum length of dry spell, maximum number of consecutive days with RR < 1mm 24. CWD. Maximum length of wet spell, maximum number of consecutive days with RR ≥ 1mm 25. R95pTOT. Annual total PRCP when RR > 95p. 26. R99pTOT. Annual total PRCP when RR > 99p. 27. PRCPTOT. Annual total precipitation

Example of Canadian Regional Model output variables (CANRCM4) from Env. Canada