0 Financial and Market Risks for Space Launch Providers Presented by: Charlie Precourt ATK Aerospace Systems Space Transportation Policy and Market Risks – Space Policy Institute November 16, 2011 – George Washington University

1 Overarching Considerations for Launchers Physics Very Challenging and Unchanging Operating environments extreme. Temperatures, loads, pressures, and rapid variations of these conditions lead to highly costly systems solutions. Dramatic Advances in propulsion and materials properties elusive, yet necessary to dramatically lower the costs of “managing the physics” Market Relatively Small Flight rates much greater than six per year are rarely achieved for any sizable launch system −Difficult to recoup development costs, resulting in high unit cost in proportion and infrastructure carrying costs high on a per flight basis −Managing market risks exacerbates business model: flight losses, indemnification, payload or system delays/stand-downs, manifesting challenges Broad set of mission requirements – Attributes sought often mutually exclusive LEO vs. GTO design Low payload weight or volume vs. heavy or large volume Low cost: per pound, per flight, or per year –Multiple designs required/emerge to meet the wide spectrum of all customer needs. –Synergies remain a challenge; yet where found and exploited, can reduce LV financial and market risks Customer: government vs. commercial Safety, reliability and availability Cargo/satellite vs. human rated Consequences

2 Launch Industry Snapshot Difficult Business Case Difficult to forecast market Limited customer base Launch and payload schedule slips Limited competition Difficult for new entrants 18 U.S. launches in 2011; only one was commercially-funded Key Yellow – 0-3 month slip Orange – 3-6 month slip Orange – 3-6 month slip Brown – month slip Brown – month slip Red – 1 year or more slip Red – 1 year or more slip DateVehicle MissionLocationFunded U.S. Launches in 2011 Jan. 20Delta IVNROL-49VAFBGov –A.F. Feb 6Minotaur INROL-66VAFBGov – NRO Feb 23ShuttleSTS-133KDCGov –NASA March 4TaurusGloryVAFBGov - NASA Feb. 27ShuttleSTS-134KSCGov - NASA March 5Atlas VOTV 2CCAFSGov – A.F. March 11Delta IVNROL-27CCAFSGov – NRO April 15Atlas VNROL-34VAFBGov – NRO May 7Atlas VSBIRS GEO1CCAFSGov - DoD Jun 10Delta IISAC-DVAFBCommercial June 30Minotaur IORS 1WallopsGov –A.F. July 8ShuttleSTS-135KSCGov – NASA July 16Atlas VGPS 2F-2CCAFSGov –A.F. Aug. 5Atlas VJunoCCAFSGov - NASA Sept 10Delta IIGRAILCCAFSGov - NASA Sept 27Minotaur 4TacSat4KLCGov – ORS Oct 28Delta IINNPVAFBGov - NASA Nov 25Atlas VMSLCCAFSGov - NASA Dec 19Falcon 9Dragon C2CCAFSGov - NASA In 2011 there were a total of 48 international launches (with 3 failures); 10 of those were commercially-funded.

3 Summary U.S. launch industry faces many challenges Industrial base has been dramatically affected by market realities in recent years Opportunities exist for improved business practices to lead to a sustainable launch industry Leverage lessons learned from DoD and NASA development programs Ensure business case closes for new vehicle developments before “launching” into them Leverage existing assets, workforce and infrastructure wherever practical Emphasize the importance of continuous improvement in reliability, safety, manufacturability, performance, launch availability, and system costs 3