Addressing Critical Skills Issues at the NWS Climate Prediction Center: Agrometeorology Douglas Le Comte OFCM Workshop 23 September 2009

Introduction to CPC CPC Mission and Vision Vision Vision To be the world’s best and most trusted climate service center, using partnerships to develop cutting-edge climate products.To be the world’s best and most trusted climate service center, using partnerships to develop cutting-edge climate products.Mission We deliver climate prediction, monitoring, and assessment products for timescales from weeks to years to the Nation and the global community for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the economy.We deliver climate prediction, monitoring, and assessment products for timescales from weeks to years to the Nation and the global community for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the economy.

Operations and Development Branches OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES: 1.Prepare long-range outlooks from one week to one year; improve forecasts; verify forecasts. 2.Stratospheric monitoring; UV forecasts 3.Disseminate global data for monitoring 4.Operate with USDA the Joint Agricultural Weather Facility 5.Produce assessments for the USAID Famine Early Warning System DEVELOPMENTAL ACTIVITIES: 1.Perform applied research 2.Monitor the state of the ocean-atmosphere climate system 3.Develop prediction techniques Predict the Physical Environment “from the Sun to the Sea”

NWS and USDA Responsibilities at JAWF : NWS meteorologists provide global weather data, products, and expertise in interpretation of forecast models. USDA agricultural meteorologists merge the NWS information with climatological analyses and global agronomic data to arrive at the weather impact on agricultural production.

The FEWS Project Produce weekly hazards assessments for Africa, Central America/Hispaniola, and Afghanistan Designed to provide a “heads up” on conditions that could lead to food shortages

Critical Skills Needed for Agricultural Weather Monitoring Knowledge of ClimateKnowledge of Climate Normal precipitation in crop areasNormal precipitation in crop areas Normal temperatures in crop areasNormal temperatures in crop areas Knowledge of climate extremesKnowledge of climate extremes Knowledge of AgricultureKnowledge of Agriculture What are the crops and where are they grown?What are the crops and where are they grown? Agronomic information: soil types, insects/diseasesAgronomic information: soil types, insects/diseases Crop calendars: planting, pollination, growth stages, harvestingCrop calendars: planting, pollination, growth stages, harvesting Livestock vulnerabilities (heat, cold, snow)Livestock vulnerabilities (heat, cold, snow) Knowledge of DataKnowledge of Data What data is available and how quickly?What data is available and how quickly? How good is it?How good is it? How can I get more pertinent data and information?How can I get more pertinent data and information? Knowledge of Forecasting (Models: short term and long range)Knowledge of Forecasting (Models: short term and long range) CommunicationCommunication Ability to create maps and graphsAbility to create maps and graphs Verbal and written skills, use of the InternetVerbal and written skills, use of the Internet

Skill Gaps and Shortages Most new meteorologists have little to no experience or knowledge of agricultural meteorologyMost new meteorologists have little to no experience or knowledge of agricultural meteorology - Few universities have meteorology/agriculture departments that teach this - Few universities have meteorology/agriculture departments that teach this - Workers usually come from jobs not related to agriculture - Workers usually come from jobs not related to agriculture

Mission Impacts Minimal Impacts Workers readily pick up required knowledge from co-workers and reference documentsWorkers readily pick up required knowledge from co-workers and reference documents Lack of knowledge and experience increases the time needed to train new workersLack of knowledge and experience increases the time needed to train new workers USDA has a greater need for workers with degrees and experience in agmet to fulfill their missionUSDA has a greater need for workers with degrees and experience in agmet to fulfill their mission

Addressing Shortages Universities usually do not provide sufficient practical training and experience So CPC and USDA provide informal on-the-job trainingCPC and USDA provide informal on-the-job training Retention at JAWF has been a problem: USDA is seen to provide more career enhancement opportunities than NWS/CPCRetention at JAWF has been a problem: USDA is seen to provide more career enhancement opportunities than NWS/CPC With recent changes at JAWF (on-site NWS personnel removed), the retention problem may not be as much of an issueWith recent changes at JAWF (on-site NWS personnel removed), the retention problem may not be as much of an issue Similar retention problem with contractors working on the FEWS project—they seek more stability and opportunitySimilar retention problem with contractors working on the FEWS project—they seek more stability and opportunity “Virtualization” of CPC JAWF activities takes advantage of efficiencies in software and communications“Virtualization” of CPC JAWF activities takes advantage of efficiencies in software and communications

Recommendations Consider developing WEBINAR and COMET training in agricultural meteorology and climatologyConsider developing WEBINAR and COMET training in agricultural meteorology and climatology Support mentoring for new workers so that experienced workers can impart their knowledge to new recruitsSupport mentoring for new workers so that experienced workers can impart their knowledge to new recruits More collaboration between NWS and USDA and agricultural users (seminars, meetings, joint projects, data/product exchange, etc.)More collaboration between NWS and USDA and agricultural users (seminars, meetings, joint projects, data/product exchange, etc.) Enhance prediction capabilities at all time scalesEnhance prediction capabilities at all time scales