Water Conflict: Global Issues and Cooperative Opportunities Sandra Ruckstuhl, PhD 2010 Summer Teacher Institute University of Chicago 29 June 2010

Structure of Presentation CONF 695 Water and Conflict Conflict Analysis and Resolution Environmental Conflict Water Conflict Water and Dennis Sandole’s Three Pillar Model Cases Conclusion Interrupt me

CONF 695: Water and Conflict Integrate conflict theory, water concepts, and case literature Case study approach to highlight social and environmental challenges and perspectives at different levels Critical thinking and internal debate Guest speakers from the field Student presentations – on cases, on research, on policy proposals See reading list handout

Conflict Analysis and Resolution Principles Conflict studies = analysis and resolution Interdisciplinary - social psychology, international re, development studies, cultural studies Promotes critical thinking about social relationships, needs, aspirations and power between individuals and groups Conflict is not necessarily bad (innovation) Violence is a negative manifestation of conflict Cooperation is an inherent opportunity in everything For policy classes important to think about political economy of decision making Geography – including political, cultural, economic Environmental history

Conflict Analysis and Resolution Integrative Practice PEACE- BUILDING PREVENTIVE ACTION PEACEMAKING

Conflict Analysis and Resolution Christopher Mitchell’s SPITCEROW Model S = Sources P = Parties I = Issues and interests T = Tactics C = Changes E = Enlargement R = Roles O = Outcomes W = Winner

Conflict Analysis and Resolution Dennis Sandole’s Three Pillar Model Conflict Conditions Individual level Societal level International level Global/ecological level PILLAR 1 Conflict Sources Parties (violent) Issues Objectives Means Conflict-handling orientations Conflict environment PILLAR 3 Conflict Resolution Prevention Management Settlement Resolution Transformation

Environmental Conflict What is it? “Environmental conflict” boils down to conflict (or “disputes”) over environmental resources. Analysis = What is the nature of these disputes? Resolution = How can we address them? The answer to both questions lies in an interdisciplinary approach

Environmental Conflict What are the “resources”? Conflict over non-renewable (finite) resources Minerals (diamonds, oil, coltan) Land (property rights) Conflict over renewable resources Forests and timber Air Water

Environmental Conflict What are the dynamics? Competition increases as access decreases (perception) Changes in the quantity/quality of resource Changes in demographics Individual implications Difficulty meeting basic human needs Communal and global implications Conflict develops within communities Conflict develops between communities

Environmental Conflict What are the dynamics? The environment (water resources included) is neither a necessary nor sufficient cause of violent conflict Consumption means environmental degradation and increased competition and risk of conflict. Thomas Homer-Dixon made a splash with Environment, Scarcity and Violence (2001). He warned that rapid growth in the global economy will spur ever increasing demands for natural resources. The world will consequently face growing scarcities of such vital renewable resources as cropland, fresh water, and forests. These environmental scarcities will have profound social consequences--contributing to insurrections, ethnic clashes, urban unrest, and other forms of civil violence, especially in the developing world. After some debate over the book, THD pointed out that the effects of environmental scarcity are indirect and act in combination with other social, political, and economic stresses, and that human ingenuity can mitigate conflict.

Environmental Conflict What are the dynamics? RELATIVE SCARCITY + POOR INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY = POTENTIAL CONFLICT Supply-, demand-, structurally driven scarcity leads to conflict (Homer-Dixon 1999) Demographic stress (environment + population) leads to state failure/exploitation (Kahl 2002) Differential power and differential impacts of environmental degradation (Peluso and Watts 2001) BUT if we think critically and creatively human ingenuity can overcome… Consumption means environmental degradation and increased competition and risk of conflict. Thomas Homer-Dixon made a splash with Environment, Scarcity and Violence (2001). He warned that rapid growth in the global economy will spur ever increasing demands for natural resources. The world will consequently face growing scarcities of such vital renewable resources as cropland, fresh water, and forests. These environmental scarcities will have profound social consequences--contributing to insurrections, ethnic clashes, urban unrest, and other forms of civil violence, especially in the developing world. After some debate over the book, THD pointed out that the effects of environmental scarcity are indirect and act in combination with other social, political, and economic stresses, and that human ingenuity can mitigate conflict.

Water Conflict But as the environment and institutions change this pattern could change too. History demonstrates peace and cooperation in managing shared water resources. The case of international waters -- The assumption is that there is a history of conflict (readings will imply that). Historically there has been more cooperation than conflict over transboundary waters… But the world is changing, and depending on human capapibility to adjust, social disruption could result…

Water Conflict Popular coverage of and rhetoric around international “water wars” Indirect role in intrastate, rather than interstate, violent conflict Internal fragility associated with inequity of water scarcity problems Problems with quality and quantity SCARCITY IS RELATIVE. Scarcity as an economic term - meaning an item is relatively scarce and thus there is competition over it.

Water Conflict Environmental change (including global warming) means more water in some areas, less water in others, and pollution worldwide Environmental change can cause social stress and lead to conflict if institutions cannot adjust to those changes in a productive way

Water Conflict A source of destruction, poverty & dispute A source of production, growth & cooperation Drought Flood & inundation Landslide Desertification Contamination Epidemic & disease Dispute, even conflict Healthy people Healthy ecosystems Food production Energy production Navigation Cultural Value Cooperation

Conflict Analysis and Resolution Dennis Sandole’s Three Pillar Model Conflict Conditions Individual level Societal level International level Global/ecological level PILLAR 1 Conflict Sources Parties (violent) Issues Objectives Means Conflict-handling orientations Conflict environment PILLAR 3 Conflict Resolution Prevention Management Settlement Resolution Transformation

Three Pillar Model Conflict Sources: Parties There are many different users of water: Water for people (supply and sanitation) Water for environment (ecosystems) Water for food (irrigation) Water for energy (hydropower) Water for other purposes (e.g., culture or religion) They have different, sometimes competing needs. Overlapping Looking at each of these questions helps us to understand different perspectives on water disputes

Three Pillar Model Conflict Sources: Parties upstream vs. downstream urban vs. rural rich vs. poor haves vs. have-nots Overlapping Looking at each of these questions helps us to understand different perspectives on water disputes

Three Pillar Model Conflict Sources: Parties Water resources (e.g., rivers, aquifers, lakes) cross different kinds of jurisdictional lines Interstate Intrastate

Three Pillar Model Conflict Sources: Issues Relative scarcity + institutional capacity deficiencies = conflict Ownership Who has the right to it? Consumption How should it be used? Distribution Who has access and who does not? Management How should it be governed? Overlapping Looking at each of these questions helps us to understand different perspectives on water disputes

Three Pillar Model Conflict Sources: Issues Category Type Renewable natural resource changes Quality Quantity Temporal Variability Other physical changes Demographic Infrastructure Relational changes Behavioral Parties (individuals and groups) Institutions Power and influence Conflict tactics Eco-economic changes Value of and relationship to the resources Overlapping Looking at each of these questions helps us to understand different perspectives on water disputes

Three Pillar Model Conflict Sources: Issues

Three Pillar Model Conflict Sources: Issues

Three Pillar Model Conflict Sources: Issues Direct/indirect control over resources = power Control over supply (domestic and industry) Control over food production (domestic and export) Control over environment (drought and flood) Control over health issues (diseases) Control over energy production (hydropower)

Three Pillar Model Conflict Conditions: Individual/Societal Water Scarcity 2025

Three Pillar Model Conflict Conditions: Individual/Societal

Three Pillar Model Conflict Conditions: Societal/International Projected Population Developing & Transition Countries (DTC) and OECD Mega cities Rapid urban growth in secondary cities & towns Population size Population density Rapid rates of urbanization Infant mortality Youth bulge (large numbers of people between 15 and 24) Scarcity of cropland and freshwater per capita (food security) Dependence on natural resource exports And more… Still many in fragile rural areas

Three Pillar Model Conflict Conditions: International More than 260 river basins with more than 2 countries…

Three Pillar Model Conflict Conditions: International Tensions longstanding and growing with demand…

Three Pillar Model Conflict Conditions Physical Effects of Climate Change Increased variability, availability and access to resources Changes in precipitation Glacial melt Reduced quality of land (erosion, contamination) Increased desertification Changes to crop seasons Changes in biodiversity Rising sea levels Flooding coastal areas, including urban habitats and farmland Disruption of aquatic habitats and fish populations Natural disasters and extreme weather events (i.e. hurricanes, flash floods, droughts, landslides, wild fires, spread of disease and pestilence)

Three Pillar Model Conflict Conditions Social Impacts of Climate Change Loss of livelihoods Economic shocks and instability Food shortages and food insecurity Human health impacts (e.g. disease) Food insecurity Trade relations Migration Political instability and state fragility Spillover effects impacting neighboring areas Inequitable impacts and social tensions

Three Pillar Model Conflict Resolution Conflict prevention (early intervention/diplomacy) Conflict management (security operations and peacekeeping) Conflict settlement (coercive peacemaking) Conflict resolution (non-coercive peacemaking) Conflict transformation (social cohesion, resilience, capacity)

Three Pillar Model Conflict Resolution Building capacity to deal with conflict: Organizations (e.g., policy and official administrative structures) and Institutions (e.g., norms, values, perceptions, behaviors, knowledge)

Three Pillar Model Conflict Resolution Environmental Peacebuilding Capitalizes on ecological interdependencies to promote social, economic, and political relationships through joint environmental management and benefit sharing Opportunities both for prevention and transformation are everywhere…

Cases Nile River Basin

Cases The Sahel Region

Cases Yemen

Cases Israel and the Palestinian Territories Visible water politics in Israel and Palestinian territories

Cases The Dead Sea 1973, 1975, 1987, 2001

Cases Indus River Basin Implications of one water agreement - Indus Waters Treaty 1960 - allocated use and rights in certain areas

THANK YOU.