Price Outlook, 2015 and Beyond 2015 GREAT LAKES PROFESSIONAL CATTLE FEEDING AND MARKETING SHORTCOURSE East Lansing, MI Bowling Green, OH Wyoming, ON Jim Hilker Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics Department Michigan State University February 10, 11, 12, 2015
Topics: Cattle Price Drivers and … Beef Demand –Domestic –Foreign Markets and Competition Some Feedstuffs Comments Poultry and Pork Production More on Cattle Markets –Review Price Levels –U.S. Cattle Inventory –Cost and Return Prospects –Price Outlook Summary: The Economic Environment USDA Data Sources – NASS, AMS, FAS, and ERS Most Forecasts – LMIC
US Consumer Demand and Consumption (Disappearance)
Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Livestock Marketing Information Center 2009 Dollars Calculated
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA-ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA-ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
International Perspective
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS Livestock Marketing Information Center
U.S. Meat Trade Million Pounds February 10, 2015
Feedstuffs -- Corn
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Poultry and Pork
Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Cattle
Data Source: USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: CanFax Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: CanFax Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, NASS, Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
U.S. Meat Production and Prices February 10, 2015
August Cattle Futures
Economic Environment … Domestic Consumer Meat Demand Strong, Foreign Demand ???? Chicken and Pork Output Ramping-Up Summer of 2014: Cyclical Turn-up in U.S. Cattle Numbers Began Feedstuffs ???? Annual Cattle Price Peak: 2014, 2015, or 2016? Cattle -- Slow Herd Expansion, Prices Erode Not Collapse Expect More Normal Price Seasonality Producer Profitability in 2015 Compared to 2014: Very Profitable (Slight Slip): Cow-calf; Breeding Stock Providers Profitable, Small Year-Over-Year Increase: Lamb Profitable, But Well Less: Hogs, Chicken, and Dairy. Likely Not Profitable Up To Breakeven: Cattle Feeding (after best year since 2003 in 2014), and Stockers (????).
Jim Hilker’s Web Page Market Outlook & Probabilistic Price Forecasts for Grain & Livestock or Thanks Questions/Discussion