OSU/IPPC/NPDN/NRI - Pest Epidemiology Models, Maps and Reports NPDN Epidemiology Committee Leonard Coop & Paul Jepson Oregon State & Purdue University June 07-08, 2007

 Host  Pathogen  Environment - Local - Local and regional field monitoring and regional field monitoring - First responders - Plant quarantine - Watch lists - Spore trapping - PCR rapid diagnosis - Remote sensing  NPDN database - Modes of transport - Aerobiology - Storm reconstruction - Pest and disease models The Epidemiologist's Diagnostic Toolbox  Host

Types of pest epidemiological models Insects/plants: - phenological/degree-day - population and dispersal - crop loss simulation Pathogens: - infection risk - epidemiological and dispersal - crop loss simulation All airborn pests - aerobiology * most amenable to use of generic modeling approaches

 Currently 52+ IPM and crop models, generic calculator linked to weather data; online since 1996 (52 wea stations)  10,500+ weather station (most hourly or better) data accessed at 15 minute intervals from NOAA + grower networks  Free access; no user fees  Open source computing technologies (LAMP (Linux/Apache/MySQL/Perl-PHP), GRASS GIS/spatial modeling, UMN MapServer/GRASSLinks web user interface  Missing max min temperature data estimated using PRISM near real-time weather interpolation Online IPM Models - IPPC

Plant disease risk models:  Risk models generally signal periods when infection can occur, assuming inoculum is present.  Like insects, plant pathogens respond to temperature in a more-or less linear fashion.  Unlike insects, we can measure infection events using degree-hours rather than degree-days.  In addition, many plant pathogens also require moisture at least to begin an infection cycle.

Online Models - IPPC NPDN plant disease risk models online: multiple generic risk models + 7,500+ weather stations Model outputs shown w/input weather data for veracity GIS user interface

Online IPM Models - IPPC Disease models online – e. g. grass seed stem rust simulator (w/Bill Pfender, USDA) Fungicide efficacy submodel Automatic help window Graphs of disease and crop development Single screen user interface Field sample inputs

Weather and Degree-day Concepts  Degree-day models: accumulate a daily "heat unit index" (DD total) until some event is expected (e. g. egg hatch) daily: cumulative: Eggs hatch: 152 cumulative DDs Eggs start developing: 0 DDs 70 o(avg) - 50 o(threshold) =20 DD

DD Models map – select weather station from map (example for South Central Region – codling moth model) Weather station selected

48-state US Degree-day mapping calculator

US Degree-day mapping calculator (cont.) Steps used to create degree-day maps

Online IPM Models - IPPC - PRISM climate maps used for real-time degree-day modeling since A process known as “delta correction” is used to spatialize temperature and degree-day accumulations

Example 700 degree-day event for 2006

Online IPM Models - IPPC New - date of event phenology maps – we will test if “date” prediction maps are easier to use than “degree-day” prediction maps

Integrated GIS Platforms Distributed Integrated Interfaced National Database, Managed locally, distributed nationally

- Purdue/CERIS: national NPDN database/repository - Multi-level authorization and security protocols - Dynamic maps linked to reports; custom queries for any keywords - Contact Mike Hill at Purdue Univ. if you don't yet have access

Online IPM Models - IPPC Ability to use GWR (geographically weighted regression) to downscale e. g. from medium (4km) to high (100m) resolution

Screen shots from interactive CERIS NPDN server showing map layer ported from DD 50 F lay generated at OSU to and ported over to CERIS. at Purdue in Indiana overlayed with SBR observations

And the 41 degree day layer

And for 32 degree day layer

Online IPM Models - IPPC Daily and custom degree-day maps and calculator access available for coterminous USA by state and region

Online Pest Models - NPDN/IPPC Thumbnail index pages to base 32, 41, 50 maps of all regions within 48-state US Current year-to-date Deviations from normals year-to- date 30 year historical (normals) year- to-date

Online Pest Models - NPDN/IPPC GIF version of daily degree-day maps

Online Pest Models - NPDN/IPPC Updated online GIS interface –

Online Pest Models - NPDN/IPPC Online GIS interface – new features for 2007: zoom box, layers depend on zoom level Zoom box

Online Pest Models - NPDN/IPPC Additional zoom layers: National highways, railroads, higher resolution topography

Online Pest Models - NPDN/IPPC Zoom box

Online Pest Models - NPDN/IPPC Added zoom layers: major roads, rivers, enclosed water, urban areas, 90 m topography, weather station and place name labels

Online Pest Models - NPDN/IPPC Select site DD calculator form Site specific degree- days

Online Pest Models - NPDN/IPPC Degree-day and disease risk models available from online GIS interface Forecast weather data

 IPPC phenology models used increasingly in IPM decision making since the first degree-day calculator went online in  Example - tree fruit models usage in 2005 > 3,000 runs (table)  Total usage for all cropping systems now over 14,000 model runs/yr  Species – tree fruit pests (Oct 10)  =====================================================================================  codling moth [apple & pear]  western cherry fruit fly  fire blight [apple & pear]  obliquebanded leafroller  apple scab infection season  pear scab infection season  Apple maggot 1st emerge  Apple maggot percent emerge

Future Online Models Full proposed system for a multi-crop National biosecurity and IPM weather-driven pest and disease risk alert system, Western Region Weather Systems Workgroup, NRI Plant Biosecurity funding

Online Models - IPPC New modified fuzzy logic leaf wetness estimation for disease risk models – contract with Fox Weather LLC Blue-sensor Yellow-FLLW Red-FLLW+down-slope drying+rain effects

MtnRTemps (wea. forecast model) Mean dewpoint, temp. + + => Gridded maplayers (to 5-7 days) of: 1. Hourly leaf wetness (LW) 2. Tmean for each hour of LW periodneeded for input into Spatialized disease risk forecasts (w/ Fox Weather LLC) Spatialized Disease Model Forecasts CALMET (wind model) PRISM (climate maps) + Fuzzy Logic Leaf Wetness model (Kim et al, Fox weather LLC)

IPPC Weather Modeling system description  Open source computing technologies (LAMP (Linux/Apache/MySQL/Perl-PHP) web serving, GRASS GIS/spatial modeling, UMN MapServer/GRASSLinks web user interface)  State-of-the-art models: climate data sets (PRISM, modified PRISM), several global dynamic forecast models (GFS, NAM, AVN), orographic/terrain modification models (CALMET, MtnRTemps, mesoscale weather models), modified Fuzzy Logic Leaf Wetness estimation model  Algorithms include PRISM-based delta correction and geographically weighted regression interpolation and downscaling, hi-resolution elevation data (30 & 100 m)  Developed and maintained by OSU IPPC (Integrated Plant Protection Center), which has a long history of providing free online agricultural decision support tools

The epidemiologist's investigative toolbox has potential to help detect anomalies/solve problems (when, where & how) of pest invasions. Adding environmental factors from disease triangle (for our needs) requires effort. CERIS NPDN data and numerous pest and disease models are now available separately and together for custom queries and to explore the influence of environmental (weather related) factors on pest outbreaks. Some pest model categories (especially degree-day and plant disease infection risk) are amenable to generic, widely applicable uses. Expertise from different groups can be complementary and combined for most efficient use of resources. Recent improvements to our Grasslinks web GIS interface bring more power to associate NPDN records with geophysical attributes such as land use, topography, and transportation routes. Summary: Epidemiology maps and reports: