1 Federal MDSS Prototype Update Federal MDSS Prototype Update Kevin R. Petty Bill P. Mahoney National Center for Atmospheric Research MDSS Stakeholder Meeting Falls Church, Virginia August 10, 2006 Kevin R. Petty Bill P. Mahoney National Center for Atmospheric Research MDSS Stakeholder Meeting Falls Church, Virginia August 10, 2006

2 System Overview NOAA/NWS NOAA/GSD (Boulder, CO)  Supplemental Numerical Weather Prediction Models o RUC  RWIS Data via MADIS NOAA/NWS NOAA/GSD (Boulder, CO)  Supplemental Numerical Weather Prediction Models o RUC  RWIS Data via MADIS NOAA/NWS  Numerical Weather Prediction Models o Eta o GFS  Surface Observations  Model Statistics NOAA/NWS  Numerical Weather Prediction Models o Eta o GFS  Surface Observations  Model Statistics NCAR (Boulder, CO) Road Weather Forecast System Road Condition and Treatment Module Road Weather Forecast System Road Condition and Treatment Module Data Server E-470 & CDOT Data  RWIS  Road characteristics  Route characteristics E-470 & CDOT Data  RWIS  Road characteristics  Route characteristics E-470 HQ & Maintenance E-470 Staff Locations (access from home, etc.) E-470 Staff Locations (access from home, etc.) PC Java Application

3 Road Condition and Treatment Module RCTM Road Condition and Treatment Module RCTM Added explanations for system recommended treatments Modified logic used to determine recommended treatment plans Instituted subsurface temperature profile correction scheme Added comprehensive chemical selection capability including Caliber and IceBan Added information derived from blowing snow algorithm to recommended treatment process Updated system to track the amount of water on the roadway and the phase of the water (e.g. snow, slush, ice, wet, chemical wet, etc.) Added explanations for system recommended treatments Modified logic used to determine recommended treatment plans Instituted subsurface temperature profile correction scheme Added comprehensive chemical selection capability including Caliber and IceBan Added information derived from blowing snow algorithm to recommended treatment process Updated system to track the amount of water on the roadway and the phase of the water (e.g. snow, slush, ice, wet, chemical wet, etc.)

4 Miscellaneous Upgrades Altered static weighting scheme for quantitative precipitation forecasts Examined and adjusted conditional probability threshold for declaring snow Modified Forward Error Correction (FEC) Scheme Changed insolation source Altered static weighting scheme for quantitative precipitation forecasts Examined and adjusted conditional probability threshold for declaring snow Modified Forward Error Correction (FEC) Scheme Changed insolation source

5 Display Upgrades Adapted and enhanced graphical user interface to accommodate aforementioned changes

6 Display Upgrades E-470 and CDOT ESS data from MADIS

7 Display Upgrades Added treatment explanations

8 Display Upgrades Added additional chemical equations (Caliber, IceBan)

9 Display Upgrades Roadway water phase tracking

10 Display Upgrades Forecast History

11 Conferences and meetings TRBJan 2006 AMSJan 2006 PIARC/SIRWECMar 2006 ITSAMay 2006 UKEstonia FranceSlovenia SwitzerlandNorway LithuaniaDenmark LatviaJapan

12 MDSS Release 4.0 Distribution Stats Total Recipients:49 Total Vendors23 USA Vendors14 International14 DOT/Public Works19 Academic6 Total Recipients:49 Total Vendors23 USA Vendors14 International14 DOT/Public Works19 Academic6

13 MDSS Technology Transfer Challenges Road Temperature Model No longer supported Not robust New models FASST METRo MDSS Display Code Falls short of the FRD Lacks tactical alert capability MDSS Release Adoption Little support requested Used for ideas and concepts Organizations want to minimize risk Meets project goals Road Temperature Model No longer supported Not robust New models FASST METRo MDSS Display Code Falls short of the FRD Lacks tactical alert capability MDSS Release Adoption Little support requested Used for ideas and concepts Organizations want to minimize risk Meets project goals