World Populations – As we age The world's population has moved from a path of high birth and death rates to one characterized by low birth and death rates. What does this mean for our future?

World Populations – As we age 1 in 10 persons is now 60+ years old. By 2050, one in five will be 60 years or older. The older population itself is ageing. The oldest old (80+ years) is the fastest growing segment of the older population. They currently make up 11 percent of the 60+ age group and will grow to 19 percent by The number of centenarians will increase 15-fold from approximately 145,000 in 1999 to 2.2 million by % of older persons are women. 51% of the world's older persons live in urban areas. In the last 50 years, average life expectancy increased by 20 years. Global life expectancy is currently 66 years. Dependency Ratio is increasing throughout the world

World Populations – As we age Ageing is not the same everywhere. For example, the developed nations (e.g., Canada) are ageing faster than the under- developed and developing nations. This means the “problems” associated with an ageing population are different throughout the world. For developed nations, the issue is sustaining their economic and social structures as the population ages. Solutions to slow or reverse the trend are needed.

World Populations – As we age One solution…and the stated policy solution for Canada…is immigration. Thus, we must look at changing demographics from two components: –Natural –Migration or movement. Natural is birth and death, while migration includes immigration (movement to) and emigration (movement away).

World Populations – As we age Measuring Demographics – Definitions Birth Rate is the number of births in a country for every thousand people in the population. If children are born in one year in a country with a population of , the birth rate is / X 1000 = 30. A Birth Rate over 30 is high, while less than 15 is low. Canada’s 2005 population was In that year babies were born. The 2005 Birth Rate was: ( / ) X 1000 = 10.6 Thus, 10.6 babies were born in 2005 for every people in Canada.

World Populations – As we age Measuring Demographics – Definitions Death Rate is the number of deaths in a country for every thousand people in the population. Canada’s 2005 population was In that year people died. Canada’s 2005 Death Rate was: ( / ) X 1000 = 7.3 So, 7.3 people died per every people in Canada in 2005.

World Populations – As we age Measuring Demographics – Definitions It would seem only natural the Natural Increase Rate (NIR) is the difference between Birth Rate and Death Rate. If Birth Rate is 30 and Death Rate is 20, the NIR is 10 per thousand people (or 1 percent). The NIR formula is (Birth Rate – Death Rate) / 10 In 2005, Canada’s NIR was: = (Birth Rate – Death Rate) / 10 = (10.6 – 7.3) / 10 = 3.3 / 10 = 0.33 Thus, Canada’s population in 2005 grew naturally by 0.33%. A negative number would mean a reduction.

World Populations – As we age Measuring Demographics – Definitions Immigration Rate is the number of people who permanently move to a country. In 2005, people immigrated to Canada. With a 2005 population of , the Immigration Rate was: ( / ) X 1000 = 7.9

World Populations – As we age Measuring Demographics – Definitions Emigration Rate is the number of people who permanently leave a country. For example, people leave from the total population of The Emigration Rate would be 2.0 per every thousand ( / X 1 000) In 2005, people emigrated to Canada. With a 2005 population of , the Immigration Rate was: ( / ) X 1000 = 1.2

World Populations – As we age Measuring Demographics – Definitions To provide a summary to immigration or movement, the Net Migration Rate (NMR) is the difference between the Immigration Rate and the Emigration Rate. The NMR formula is (Immigration Rate – Emigration Rate) / 10 In 2005, Canada’s NMR was: = (Immigration Rate – Emigration Rate) / 10 = (7.9 – 1.2) / 10 = 6.7 / 10 = 0.67 Thus, Canada NMR was 0.67% with a net increase in people.

World Populations – As we age Measuring Demographics – Definitions Population Growth Rate (PGR) is the rate at which a country’s population is changing. It combines Natural Increase Rate (NIR) plus Net Migration Rate (NMR) In 2005, Canada’s PGR was: NIR + NMR = = 1.00% Thus, Canada’s population is growing but at a very slow rate relative to other spots in the world.

World Populations – As we age Measuring Demographics – Definitions Infant Mortality Rate is the number of children in a country who die in the first year of life for every births. An Infant Mortality Rate over 80 is extremely high, while a rate of 15 or less is low. Canada’s rate is about 5.1 per thousand. As we have learned, infant mortality can be a measure of a country’s economic prosperity. How?

World Populations – As we age Measuring Demographics – Definitions Dependency Load is the percentage of a country’s population who are under the age of 15 and over 65 that must be supported by the independent, working population. A high dependency load stresses a country’s economy. In 2000, 19% of Canadians were younger than 15 and 13% were over 65. Life Expectancy is the average lifespan that a newborn will have. A short lifespan is less than 50, while a long lifespan is over 75 years. The life expectancy in Canada is 79.4 years.

World Populations – As we age Measuring Demographics – Definitions Total Fertility Rate is the average number of children that each woman will have in her fertile years… assuming no change in the Birth Rate. Fertile years are assumed to be between 15 and 45 years. A high Fertility Rate would be greater than five, while a low rate would be below the Replacement Rate of 2.1. Canada’s Fertility Rate is about 1.7.

World Populations – As we age Measuring Demographics – Definitions Replacement Rate is the Total Fertility Rate that would produce a Natural Increase Rate of zero. In other words, a country’s population does not change (…ignoring immigration). The Replacement Rate to achieve zero is 2.1

World Populations – As we age Measuring Demographics – Definitions Rule of 70 or Doubling Time is how long it takes a country’s population to double. The formula is divide 70 by the country’s Population Growth Rate (as a percentage). A population growing at a rate of 2.3% will double in 30 years (70 / 2.3 = 30). If Canada’s Population Growth Rate continues at 1.0%, Canada’s population will double in = 70 / 1.0 = 70 years. Canada’s Population Growth Rate is predict to be 0.6% by In this scenario, Canada’s population would double in 70 / 0.6 = 117 years.

World Populations – As we age A country has a population of at the beginning of the year. During the year, the following population changes occurred. – babies were born – people died – people emigrated – people immigrated – babies died during the year – women were aged 15 to 45. Calculate the following values: Population at the end of the year Birth Rate and Death Rate Emigration and Immigration Rates Natural Increase Rate and Net Migration Rate Population Growth Rate Infant Mortality Rate Total Fertility Rate