The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Modelling Activities at CAWCR, 2014 Presenter: Gary Dietachmayer, on behalf of colleagues throughout CAWCR WGNE-29 Melbourne, March 2014

POAMA-M24 (Seasonal prediction system) – March 27, 2013 APS1 ACCESS-R – Apr APS1 ACCESS-C – Oct Solar – Ngamai switch – Dec 2013 APS1 ACCESS-TC – Dec (NWP) Ensembles NCI / NeCTAR (Tuesday – Tim Pugh) SREP / FDP (Wednesday Hi-res NWP) The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-29, Melbourne, March 2014 Major forecast systems summary

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-29, Melbourne, March 2014 A reminder on forecast system names …. ACCESS – G / R / C / TC “POAMA” – Predictive Ocean Atmosphere model for Australia

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-29, Melbourne, March 2014 POAMA P24 to M24 Core elements largely unchanged (BAM3, T47/250km, L17, ACOM2, two-deg, L25) More emphasis on shorter (multiweek, instraseasonal) FCs, better early spread Introduction of atmospheric perturbations via breeding method (3 x 11) P24, M24 Upper-tercile precip Significant MJO improvement – 0.5 RMM correl 17 -> 22.5 days

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-29, Melbourne, March 2014 APS1 ACCESS-R (changes) Regional model rationalisation: “A0” + “R0” -> “R1” (12km, L70, large-domain) Component upgrades (eg., UM 6.4 -> 7.5) Additional data: IASI, GPS-RO, locally-processed ATOVS (RARS) R0 (left), R1 (right)

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-29, Melbourne, March 2014 APS1 ACCESS-R (performance)

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-29, Melbourne, March 2014 APS1 ACCESS-R (performance) Best, middle, worst

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-29, Melbourne, March 2014 APS1 ACCESS-R (performance)

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-29, Melbourne, March 2014 APS1 ACCESS-C (changes) Component upgrades (eg., UM 6.4 -> 7.6) Resolution (0.05 -> deg, L50 -> L70) Nesting in APS1 ACCESS-R New (trial) Darwin domain Still FC-only (no DA), now with two-step reconfig Operational-timing driven in part by SC upgrade Is still “overly convective” for tropical stability

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-29, Melbourne, March 2014 APS1 ACCESS-C (performance) For many variables, similar to APS0 Forecasters report improved wind-changes (topog/res?) However - worse T2m than APS0

Good: Mossvale station – APS1 better OBS APS1 APS0 MOSS VALE AWS, , (Lat,Lon)

Bad: Banks town station – APS0 better OBS APS1 APS0 BANKSTOWN, , (Lat,Lon)

APS1 Urban Fractions are realistic APS1APS Almost No Urban Areas in APS0

APS0 Urban fractions are not …. APS1APS Almost No Urban Areas in APS0

ACCESS-C (SY) - impact of Urban/Tree APS0APS1 Control APS1 Revised Urban Parameters APS1 Revised Urban Parameters Tree Height=10m T 2m Forecasts RMS Difference from observed (K) 90 Stations APS0 looks good because it has almost no urban tile fractions and shorter trees!

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-29, Melbourne, March 2014 Solar – Ngamai SC upgrade Solar decommissioned Dec 2013 Ngamai declared operational Dec compute nodes, 6912 compute cores (Intel Sandy Bridge) Opn-Capacity: 12.5 Tflops (0.25 * 50) -> 52 Tflops (0.5 * 104) Example: APS1 ACCESS-G wall-clock: 95 min -> 59 min

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-29, Melbourne, March 2014 APS1 ACCESS-TC Usual component/level upgrade (UM 7.5 / L70) Had tried this previously with no success Upgraded forecast-error covariances (over full TC domain), vortex- specification Helped with previous 4DVar excursions Improvement in long-period track, also removes last “APS0” elements from suite “APS10”, APS1

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-29, Melbourne, March 2014 Towards APS2: ACCESS-G N512 (25km), L70, UM 8.2 early trial system running for months now Obs-set not yet complete – require upgrade of current OPS Still to do: SSMIS (from F17/18), CrIS/ATMS (Suomi-NPP), OSCAT, Windsat NH Aust

Towards APS2: Plans Regional (R) – technical upgrade only Flag possible retirement in APS3+ ????? City (C) – 2.2km convection-permitting, still FC-only Ensembles – finally get the N216 global ensemble to operations “ACCESS-X” – on-demand system(s) Have used early-prototype – eg., to setup research-only 1.5km Darwin

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-29, Melbourne, March 2014 Towards POAMA3 POAMA3/ACCESS To supersede POAMA-2P and 2M Based on ACCESS1.0 coupled model Full coupled initialisation (PECDAS) Operational ~2015 (??) Achievements Trial POAMA3/ACCESS system implemented on raijin Extensive hindcast set is being performed (1980 – present)

ACCESS “ESM1” ACCESS ESM1 = ACCESS1.4 + carbon cycle + CABLE OASIS-MCT Coupling successfully achieved, carbon exchanged between land, ocean and atmosphere Interactive or prescribed atmospheric CO 2 Currently running prescribed CO 2 pre-industrial case Assessing stability of carbon fluxes Historical and 2 RCP cases to follow. 14/15 Emissions-driven simulations Interactive atmospheric CO 2 Pre-industrial, historical, RCP With and without land-use change The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Annual mean net ocean (red) and land (black) carbon flux to atmosphere. Aim is zero flux under pre-industrial conditions. Year Global flux (PgC/y)

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology ACCESS-CM2 development 22 Motivation for upgraded model Anticipate improvements in realism due to improved model physics and resolution World-class Australian contribution to CMIP6 and tool for climate science Upgrade required for effective national and international partnerships Plan – ACCESS-CM2 Enhanced vertical atmospheric resolution – 85 levels Based on “GA6” atmospheric code Horizontal atmospheric resolution Lower resolution “N96” (as current) version Higher resolution “N216” (~0.55°lat; ~0.8°lon) version Horizontal oceanic resolution – compare 1, 0.25 degree Development of high-res versions depends on efficiency on raijin Include CABLE2 using the JULES framework

Achievements - ACCESS-CM2 development New atmospheric component GA6.0 implemented at NCI At standard (N96) resolution so far – higher res (N216) will follow 25-year test simulation is underway – 8 years done so far Work is underway to couple to the other model components There has been good progress in coupling CABLE to the atmospheric code via JULES. A collaboration has been established with the CoECSS in ocean model development Global ocean model (0.25° lat/lon) implemented using the MOM5 code Potential to adopt as ocean component for ACCESS-CM2 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

Thank you The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Gary Dietachmayer ESM/AMP RGL (acting) Phone: Web: Thank you

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-29, Melbourne, March 2014

From Best et al (2006) “model runs revealed MOSES2.2 to be sensitive to changes in the canopy heat storage” “Model performance was optimum with heat capacity values smaller than those generally considered” The Urban tile canopy heat capacity parameter is “not well defined and cannot be measured” “we conclude that the basic canopy scheme in MOSES 2.2 does not adequately capture the physical processes of the urban atmosphere to accurately represent an urban area.”

Jules Urban Types from Porson et al 2010 Soil Urban Canopy Roof Canyon Roof Canyon Fixed T b RMSE Watts/m2 Urban Canopy Thick Roof & CanyonThin Roof & CanyonThin Roof & Canyon with Radiative Exchange All fluxes Net Radn Sensible Heat Comparison against observations from Mexico city Default Scheme Experimental Schemes

Conclusions 1)Many observing stations are in Urban areas 1)Most Australians live in the Big cities! 2)Properties of the Urban tile and Tree heights are important 3)Models make simplistic assumptions about tree heights 4)Need for an accurate spatial map of Tree heights 5)Need for Improved Urban and Lake Tile Models for ACCESS 6)We have performed NWP tests with revised Urban parameters and tree heights that show significant improvements in forecasts