World Trade Center, NYC

Pentagon

Osama bin-Laden Bin-Laden videos 1996 fatwa 1998 fatwa Al-Qaeda Training Manual (from Dept. of Justice)Al-Qaeda Training Manual (from Dept. of Justice)

Ayman al-Zawahiri Knights Under the Prophet’s Banner

Khalid Sheikh Mohamed

Origins of Recent Terrorism Iranian Revolution ( ) provides inspirationforeign fighters formationgo home, of Afghan mujahadin form new groups or join existing groups, create a global terror Ideological legacy USSR invades US, China, Pakistan Soviets network of radical Islamic AfghanistanEgypt, Saudi Arabia, withdraw thought 1979and others funding, 1989 provides ideologysupplying, and training and inspirationmujahadin and jihadis OBL and others recruit Saudi funded religious schools volunteers al-Qaeda (global) (madrassas) in Middle East from madrassasAbu Sayyaf (Phil.) and Asia (1970s-1980s) in M. E. and AsiaAQ in N. Africa (Alg) provides recruits with ideology (foreign fightersHAMAS or jihadis)Islamic Jihad IMU Jemaah Islamiah PIJ Bosnia, Chechnya, Kashmir… Time

Roots of Radical Sunni Ideology Anti-colonial nationalism Israel-Palestine issue Ahmad ibn Taymiyyah (Damascas) Deobandi Islam returning to original 1867 British-held India sources of Islam anti-colonial IslamAbu al-Ala MaududiAbdullah Azzam Palestinian PakistanIntellectual mentor of OBL Purification of Islam is a key to independence from British Salafism Late 1800sRashid Rida, EgyptMuslim Brotherhood Sayyid Qutb return to Egypt original sourcesonly Salafi beliefs Hassan al-Banna Egypt Al-Qaeda can free Muslims rejects British colonialism member of MB Osama bin-Laden from colonialism rejects “westernization” of Islam purify Islam Ayman al-Zawahri rejects church/state separation violence if necessary anti-Israel Muhammad ibn Abd al Wahhab anti-US (Arabian Peninsula) “founder” of “Sunni radicalism” return to original sources Milestones rejects Islamic pluralism condoned violence against apostates Abd-Al-Salam Al-Faraj anti-Ottoman, seen as foreign occupiers, apostates1932 Saudi Arabia becomes independent Egypt, unifies Arabian regions and families disciple of Qutb under the al-Saud family The Neglected Duty Wahhabi Islam becomes the official creed Late 1700s Al-Saud family alliance with Wahhabi movement Saudi-sponsored madrassas globally, by late 20th century-

Explaining the Growth of Extremist Ideas Political Factors*Technological factors Authoritarian governmentadvances in communication Corrupt governmentcomputers for info storage Lack of civil rights; no democracyinternet and Lack of human rights; no individual freedomsease of travel Liberal and moderate ideas crushedease of global financial transactions Radical ideas crushed (Egypt)advantages of networks Radical ideas encouraged (Saudi Arabia)globalization Prison torture SOP Controlled press spreads ruling ideology Anti-West and anti-USSocial Factors Colonialism in past*Rapid economic change Israeli-Palestinian conflict *Population growth Pan-Islamic ideasLack of social and economic mobility Pan-Arab ideas*More university education; lack of jobs *Failures of secular nationalism (Syria, Iraq)*Generation with a lack of identity No outlet for moderate dissent or debate*Expectations of success; lack of success Strong religious traditions (exploited by radicals)*Expectations of change; lack of change Economic Factors Poverty Small wealthy elite*Geopolitical Factors *Expectations of wealth through oilRapid wealth creation in Middle East *Rising populationIranian revolution *Massive underemploymentGlobalization Socialist economiesSoviet Invasion of Afghanistan Closed economiesCollapse of Cold War *Knowledge of wealth in other societiesInstability of shift to post-cold war world *Temporal Factors: These variables explain why events happened when they did. Many people ask why radical Islam developed, but we need to ask why it developed and why it developed when it developed. Growth of extremist ideas

Khobar Towers, 1996

Nairobi, August 7, 1998

USS Cole October 2000

Bali Bombing October 2002

Marriott Hotel, Jakarta, Indonesia August 2003

Madrid Bombing, March 11, 2004

Australian Embassy Jakarta Sept. 2004

London, July 2005

London and Glascow Attacks, June 2007

Algerian Coast Guard Barracks September 2007

Iraq, Weekend of July 7, 2007 (Washington Post)

Politics, not Religion Important: This does not represent the average Muslim Timothy McVeigh was not the average Christian AQ is a far greater threat to Muslims than to Americans This is a political movement that uses a twisted version of Islam

The Purpose of Terrorism 1.Political Agenda 2.Cause pain and fear: violence to further political agenda 3.Targeting civilians 4.Publicity

The Terrorist “Logic” Terrorist Violence Causes pain and fear in targeted audience Publicizes a political agenda Public demands change in gov’t policy Coercion of gov’t; pressure to change policy Change in gov’t policy

The “Logic” at Work: Spain 2004 Spain supports US in Iraq People’s Party in favor of Spanish intervention Socialist Worker’s Party wants to withdraw; AQ warns Spain to leave or face reprisal; Parliamentary elections on 3/14; PP favored

The “Logic” at Work: Spain 2004 March 11 attack on train station; 200 killed; 1400 wounded Voters fear more reprisals Debate on Spanish Iraq policy takes center stage Electoral Surprise; PP loses; Worker’s Party wins PP blames ETA; fears linkage of bombs to Iraq policy New gov’t led by Worker’s Party Changes policy

Terrorism is Not New First Modern Wave: political assassinations Alexander II Pres. Garfield Pres. McKinley

Terrorism is not Foreign

King David Hotel 1946

Munich 1972

Oklahoma City, April 1995

Types of Networks chainstar or hub all-channelhybrid

Cell Operations Finance, Operations, Training, Logistics, Planning F F T T P P T F P L L L O O O

Religion McVeighAsaharaKahane

Ideas and Politics A spectrum for political Islam LiberalOrthodox Indonesia Malaysia Turkey Taliban Iran Clergy Sudan gov’t AQ Iranian people Pakistan gov’t Saudi gov’t Islamists Fundamentalists Egyptian Gov’t Egyptian people

Geography of Islam Non-Middle eastern states Indonesia 215 m Pakistan 160 m India 134 m Bangladesh 123 m Turkey 70 m Nigeria 65 m Sudan 41 m Afghanistan 31 m Middle Eastern states Egypt 70 m Iran 61 m Algeria 32 m Morocco 32 m Iraq 25 m Saudi Arabia 22 m Syria 16.2 m Jordan 4.6

Iraq: Overview The Bush 43 WMD argument Planting the seed of democracy Unfinished business Iraq and the war on terrorism Operational Questions

After the Invasion: Reassessing the US Argument The Bush 43 WMD argument –But No WMD were found –Captured Iraqi documents reveal the Iraqi WMD programs were aimed at defending against Iran, not for use against the US Planting the seed of democracy –But civil war and near complete collapse of the state follow Iraq and the war on terrorism –US intelligence reveals that Iraq had minimal ties to Palestinian terrorism and no operational ties to al- Qaeda

Invasion Results May 1, 2003 –“Mission Accomplished” Insurgency begins Shi’a vs. Sunni vs. Kurd Shi’a extremists Sunni extremists Foreign Fighters –Al-Qaeda in Iraq – Abu Musab al-Zarqawi Civil War?

Questions How could the US have been so wrong about Iraq WMD? How could the US have been so wrong about aftermath? We’re there: what do we do?