FROM NATURAL HAZARDS TO DISASTERS AND DISASTER RESILIENCE A 3-Part Story That Can Take 40 Years, or More, to Live Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster.

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Presentation transcript:

FROM NATURAL HAZARDS TO DISASTERS AND DISASTER RESILIENCE A 3-Part Story That Can Take 40 Years, or More, to Live Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

TO BECOME DISASTER RESILIENT, OR NOT, THAT IS THE QUESTION (PART III)

UNDERSTANDING DISASTER RESILIENCE A realistic, time-dependent and policy-driven process

COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS NATURAL HAZARDS INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION RISK ASSESSMENT RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK GOAL: DISASTER RESILIENCE PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY IENCE FOUR PILLARS OF RESILIENCE

A DISASTER OCCURS WHEN THE CITY’S PUBLIC POLICIES ALLOW IT TO BE … UN—PREPARED UN—PROTECTED UN—ABLE TO RESPOND EFFECTIVELY UN (NON)--RESILIENT

THE FOUR PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE 1. PREPAREDNESS (HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS; PREDICTIONS, FORECASTS AND WARNING; DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIOS; INSURANCE; INTELLIGENT COMMUNITY); …

FROM UN—PREPARED TO PREPAREDNESS

HAZARDSHAZARDS ELEMENTS OF RISK EXPOSUREEXPOSURE VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATION RISKRISK

HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS WHERE WILL THE NAT. HAZARD OCCUR? WHEN? PHYSICAL EFFECTS? HOW BIG OR SEVERE? WHAT IS AT RISK? THE VULNERABILITIES? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS? WHERE WILL THE NAT. HAZARD OCCUR? WHEN? PHYSICAL EFFECTS? HOW BIG OR SEVERE? WHAT IS AT RISK? THE VULNERABILITIES? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

RISK ASSESSMENT FOR A COMMUNITY RISK = NAT. HAZARD x EXPOSURE SPECIFIC HAZARD: EXPOSURE: PEOPLE BUILDING STOCK INFRASTRUCTURE GOVERNMENT AND BUSINESS ENTERPRISE

THE FOUR PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE (Continued) 2. PROTECTION (IMPLEMENTATION OF BUILDING CODES AND LIFELINE STANDARDS; SITE-SPECIFIC DESIGN AND PERFORMANCE STANDARDS FOR ESSENTIAL AND CRITICAL FACILITIES) …

FROM UN—PROTECTED TO PROTECTED

A COMMUNITY HAS BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDING PROTECTION

A COMMUNITY HAS CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDING PROTECTION

THE FOUR PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE (Continued) 3. EMERGENCY RESPONSE (EVACUATION; EMERGENCY MEDICAL; MASS CARE; SEARCH AND RESCUE; EMERGENCY TRANSPORTATION, LOCAL, REGIONAL, AND INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE)…

FROM UN—ABLE TO RESPOND EFECTIVELY TO “INTELLIGENT” RESPONSE

THE FOUR PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE (Continued) 4. RECOVERY (RECONSTRUCTION; LOCAL, REGIONAL, AND GLOBAL BUSINESS RESUMPTION; POST- DISASTER STUDIES FOR PRE- DISASTER PREPAREDNESS)

FROM A UN (NON)— RESILIENT CITY TO A RESILIENT CITY

A CITY BECOMES DISASTER RESILIENT WHEN IT IS … PREPARED FOR THE INEVITABLE NATURAL HAZARDS THAT ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT THE WRONG TIME AND IN THE WRONG PLACE RELATIVE TO THE CITY’S SOCIAL CONSTRUCTS

A CITY BECOMES DISASTER RESILIENT WHEN … ITS PEOPLE, BUILDINGS, INFRASTRUCTURE, ESSENTIAL AND CRITICAL FACILITIES ARE PROTECTED BY CODES & STANDARDS AGAINST THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF LIKELY NATURAL HAZARDS

A CITY BECOMES DISASTER RESILIENT WHEN … IT IS ABLE TO: A) RESPOND EFFECTIVELY IN REAL TIME TO MOVE PEOLE OUT OF HARM’S WAY, B) MEET THEIR NEEDS IN A CRISIS ENVIRONMENT, AND C) PROTECT ASSETS, WITH AND WITHOUT HELP

A CITY BECOMES DISASTER RESILIENT WHEN … IT’S POLICIES NOT ONLY RESIST DISASTERS WITHOUT FAILING, BUT ALSO ARE MANDATES TO LOOK BEYOND TO A FUTURE OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMNT

DISASTER RESILIENCE INTEGRATES RESEARCH AND SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE GAINED FROM “DISASTER LABORATORIES” WITH EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES AND THE COMMUNITY’S POLITICAL PROCESS TO ADOPT REALISTIC PUBLIC POLICIES FORD

COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE WHAT’S NEEDED: TO FIND THE COMMON AGENDA (CA) OF TECHNICAL AND POLITICAL SOLUTIONS AND POLITICAL SOLUTIONS WHAT’S NEEDED: TO FIND THE COMMON AGENDA (CA) OF TECHNICAL AND POLITICAL SOLUTIONS AND POLITICAL SOLUTIONS TECHNICAL SOLUTIONS POLITICAL SOLUTIONS CA

THE EFFECTIVE SOLUTION FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE FACT: THE COMMON AGENDA IS BASED ON EACH COMMUNITY’S UNIQUE STAPLE FACTORS FACT: THE COMMON AGENDA IS BASED ON EACH COMMUNITY’S UNIQUE STAPLE FACTORS TECHNICAL SOLUTIONS POLITICAL SOLUTIONS STAPLE FACTORS PP TT SS OO CA