Moving Forward: Egypt and Its Population. Egypt’s Population.

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Presentation transcript:

Moving Forward: Egypt and Its Population

Egypt’s Population

2 % Growth Rate 61.5

Egypt’s Population % Growth Rate 61.5

Egypt China India Bangladesh

Egypt China India Bangladesh 5.5% habitable and 2.4% arable

= 100 persons Comparative Density EgyptBangladesh

Bangladesh = 100 persons Comparative Density Egypt 1,400 people/km 2

Bangladesh = 100 persons Comparative Density Egypt 2,600 people/km 2 1,400 people/km 2

= 100 persons Comparative Density Egypt 5,100 people/km 2 in 2030 Bangladesh 1,400 people/km 2

New Valley Development

Current Arable Land

New Valley Development Current Arable Land New Valley Arable Land

New Valley Development Current Arable Land New Valley Arable Land

New Valley Development Current Arable Land New Valley Arable Land 15 years.

Projection Assumptions u Two population projections

Projection Assumptions u Two population projections - Current fertility rate of 3.3 remains constant - red

Projection Assumptions u Two population projections - Current fertility rate of 3.3 remains constant - red - Replacement level fertility of 2.1 children per woman by yellow

Annual Births constant fertility low fertility

Annual Births 1.6 constant fertility low fertility

Annual Births constant fertility low fertility

Annual Births constant fertility low fertility

Total Population constant fertility low fertility

Total Population constant fertility low fertility

Total Population constant fertility low fertility

Sectoral Impacts

Economy

Consequences of Growth Currently, Egypt must create 520,000 new jobs each year.

New Jobs Required

constant fertility

New Jobs Required low fertility constant fertility 270

2.4 million jobs New Jobs Required low fertility constant fertility 270

Effects on the Economy With ample employment:

Effects on the Economy With ample employment: With inadequate employment:

Water

Water u Drinking u Irrigation u Industry u Drinking u Irrigation u Industry

... a lack of water may become one of the most serious impediments to the nation’s economic development, to say nothing of its negative impact on the quality of life of Egypt’s residents.” “ Egyptian Center for Economic Studies, 1996

Water Available per Person constant fertility low fertility

Water Available per Person constant fertility low fertility

Water Available per Person constant fertility low fertility

Water Available per Person constant fertility low fertility 18% difference

Health

High fertility leads to high death rates among infants and mothers.

High Risk Births

26%

425,000 infants exposed 26% High Risk Births

425,000 infants exposed 34,000 infant lives saved High Risk Births

Benefits of Birth Spacing

Sectoral Impacts % higher income per person 2.7 million fewer in Cairo 3.8 million fewer primary students 18% more water 480 million LE saved annually in health costs

Contraceptive Prevalence and Total Fertility Contraceptive Prevalence Rate Total Fertility Rate

Contraceptive Prevalence and Total Fertility Contraceptive Prevalence Rate Total Fertility Rate 7% 7

Contraceptive Prevalence and Total Fertility Contraceptive Prevalence Rate Total Fertility Rate 48% 7% 7

Contraceptive Prevalence and Total Fertility Contraceptive Prevalence Rate Total Fertility Rate 7% 7 48%

Contraceptive Prevalence and Total Fertility Contraceptive Prevalence Rate Total Fertility Rate 7% 7 54% 48%

Contraceptive Prevalence and Total Fertility Contraceptive Prevalence Rate Total Fertility Rate 7% % %

Contraceptive Prevalence and Total Fertility Contraceptive Prevalence Rate Total Fertility Rate 7% % % 48%

Contraceptive Prevalence and Total Fertility Contraceptive Prevalence Rate Total Fertility Rate 7% % % %

Actions Required è Continue strong Government of Egypt support for the family planning program è Strengthen linkages between the family planning program and other sectors è Enhance private sector participation in the family planning program

Cost and Benefits of Family Planning Programs

Tunisia 8.60

TunisiaIndonesia

TunisiaIndonesiaThailand

TunisiaIndonesiaThailandEgypt

Effects of a Delay

Effects of a Delay

Effects of a Delay

Effects of a Delay

Effects of a Delay year delay = 4 million 5 year delay = 4 million

Egypt’s Choices Continue current efforts Implement new approaches

Egypt’s Choices 3 Continue current efforts Implement new approaches

Egypt’s Choices 3 3 Continue current efforts Implement new approaches

Actions Required è Continue strong Government of Egypt support for the family planning program è Strengthen linkages between the family planning program and other sectors è Enhance private sector participation in the family planning program

Moving Forward: Egypt and Its Population