K-State Research & Extension U.S. Cattle Sector James Mintert, Ph.D. Professor Dept. of Agricultural Economics Kansas State University

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K-State Research & Extension U.S. Cattle Sector 1 Cattle Finishing Sector 2 Stocker/Backgrounder Sector 3 Cow-Calf Sector

K-State Research & Extension United States Fed (Slaughter) Cattle Marketed By State

K-State Research & Extension Tenth District Fed (Slaughter) Cattle Marketings By State

K-State Research & Extension United States # of Beef Cows By State

K-State Research & Extension Tenth District # of Beef Cows By State

K-State Research & Extension  Long Run Issues » Demand » Supply  Short Run Issues » Supplies Fed Cattle Price Determination

K-State Research & Extension PRICE QUANTITY Supply Demand P0P0 Q0Q0 Fed Cattle Price Determination

K-State Research & Extension PRICE QUANTITY Supply 0 Demand 0 P1P1 Q1Q1 Fed Cattle Price Determination Long Run S1S1 D1D1

K-State Research & Extension Long Run Supply Issues

K-State Research & Extension Long Run Supply Issues

K-State Research & Extension Long Run Supply Issues

K-State Research & Extension Long Run Supply Issues

Slaughter Cattle Demand K-State Research & Extension

Slaughter Cattle Demand

K-State Research & Extension Beef Demand Index

K-State Research & Extension Beef Demand Weakened

K-State Research & Extension Beef Demand’s Turnaround

K-State Research & Extension But Demand Weakened In ‘02

K-State Research & Extension Will Beef Demand Rebound In ‘03?

K-State Research & Extension  Long Run Issues » Demand Shifters – Income – Population – Competing Meat Supplies – Exports (Income, Population & Market Access) – Tastes and Preferences Fed Cattle Price Determination Long Run

K-State Research & Extension

Long-Run Beef Export Growth Has Been Phenomenal

K-State Research & Extension Net Exports Have Been Growing Source: LMIC & U.S. Dept. of Commerce

K-State Research & Extension Who We Ship Beef To Changed In 2002

K-State Research & Extension Who We Ship Beef To Changed In 2002

K-State Research & Extension Russia’s Ban On Poultry Imports Increased Domestic Competing Meat Supplies

K-State Research & Extension Russia’s Ban On Poultry Imports Increased Domestic Competing Meat Supplies

Beef and Beef From Live Cattle Imports as a Percentage of U.S. Supply Source: Livestock Marketing Information Center & MSU Trade Research Center Percent K-State Research & Extension

U.S. Beef, Veal and Live Animal Exports Source: Livestock Marketing Information Center & MSU Trade Research Center K-State Research & Extension

U.S. Beef and Veal Exports As A Percentage of U.S. Beef Supply Source: Livestock Marketing Information Center & MSU Trade Research Center K-State Research & Extension

Forecasting Cattle Supplies  Annual Production Forecasts » Cattle Cycle » Annual Inventory Estimates – USDA’s Annual Cattle Inventory Report

K-State Research & Extension

Average Cattle Cycle Is About 10 Years But Current Cycle Is In Its 14th Year

K-State Research & Extension Drought Produced Another Round of Modest Liquidation in 2002

K-State Research & Extension Total Cow Slaughter Changed Little In ‘02 Most of the “Drought” Cows Did Not Go to Slaughter

K-State Research & Extension Cow Slaughter Up This Year But Increase Is Primarily Dairy Cows

K-State Research & Extension PRICE QUANTITY Supply 0 Demand 0 Fed Cattle Price Determination Short Run S1S1 S2S2 P1P1 P0P0 P2P2

K-State Research & Extension  Short Run Issues » Supplies – Cattle On Feed Reports Forecasting Cattle Prices

K-State Research & Extension

 Short Run Issues » Supplies – Cattle On Feed Reports  Role of Non-Fed Slaughter  Seasonal Variation Forecasting Cattle Prices

K-State Research & Extension Cyclical Peak In Slaughter Cattle Prices Still Ahead

K-State Research & Extension

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