New Politburo Standing Committee  Xi Jinping, General Secretary of CCP  PRINCELING  Li Keqiang, Premier of State Council  YOUTH LEAGUE  Zhang Dejiang, Head, NPC  PRINCELING  Yu Zhengsheng, Head, CPPCC  PRINCELING  Liu Yunshan, Head, CCP Propaganda  YOUTH LEAGUE  Wang Qishan, Head, CCP Disc. Insp.  PRINCELING  Zhang Gaoli, Exec V. Premier  JIANG ZEMIN’S PROTEGE

China's Impact on Global Poverty,  World Bank's PPP$1/day consumption poverty line  Change in global number of poor (%) =  Excluding China = + 9.3

Acknowledgements  Data source  Rural Education Action Project Stanford University Prof. Scott Rozelle 3

Comparative Context  Hourly wages, 1990s (US$/hour)  US $24  Japan$22  Korea $14  Brazil$4  Mexico$3  China $1 Headline: “China is Eating Mexico’s Lunch” Note: job competition among low-wage platforms 4

Comparative Context: Korea  Hourly wages, 1990s (US$/hour)  US $24  Japan$22  Korea $14  1970/80s ~$1  Brazil$4  Mexico$3  China $1 Korea  transformation from low-wage, labor-intensive jobs to higher-wage, higher-productivity, higher-tech jobs 5

Comparative Context: Korea  Korea’s high school graduation rates by 1980s  Urban Close to 100%  Rural Close to 100% 6

Comparative Context: Mexico  Hourly wages, 1990s (US$/hour)  US $24  Japan$22  Korea $14  Brazil$4  Mexico$3-4  1970s ~$1  China $1 Mexico  low-wage, labor-intensive jobs But where is the transformation? 7

Comparative Context: Mexico  Mexico’s high school graduation rates by 1980s  Urban ~80%  Rural ~40% 8

Comparative Context  Inequality, Gini coefficients  Korea 32  gap   Brazil54  Mexico52 9

Comparative Context: China  Hourly wages, 1990s (US$/hour)  US $24  Japan$22  Korea $14  Brazil$4  Mexico$3  China $1  China  Can China make the transformation from low- wage, labor-intensive jobs to higher-wage, higher- productivity, higher-tech jobs? 10

China’s Population: Urban, Rural, and Poor Rural  ≈ 35% of school-aged children in poor rural areas (> 50 million children, ages 6 to 15) cities other rural Source: Scott Rozelle, REAP, Stanford

Unskilled wage ≈ $2.00 / hour in 2010 Park and Cai, 2008; Rozelle (REAP) 2012 Annual Real Hourly Wage (1978 dollars) ≈ 30 ¢ / hour in 1978 Starts rising 1998

Comparative Context: China  China’s high school graduation rates by 1980s  Urban Close to ~85%  Rural Close to ~40%  China’s profile is more similar to Mexico’s than Korea’s 13

Comparative Context: China  China’s middle school completion rates  Poor rural areas (35% of school-aged children) ~60% 14

Comparative Context: China  Inequality, Gini coefficients  Korea 32  gap   Brazil54  Mexico52  China 50 15

Development policy areas  Education  Other policy areas  Health  Rural infrastructure 16

Development policy areas  Health  As of 2000, ~80% of people in rural China Without health insurance of any kind  2003 new Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme  As of 2007, implemented in 86% of counties Has not significantly reduced out-of-pockets expenditure Has not significantly increased use of formal medical services 17

Development policy areas  Rural infrastructure  Roads  Drinking water Poorest rural areas now receiving more inter-governmental fiscal transfers from above Brandt 18

Development policy areas: Infrastructure Intergovernmental fiscal transfers to support rural tax/fee reform (equalizing)

Comparative Context  Developmental challenges facing rural China  Infrastructure  Health  Education 20

Questions for Discussion  Analyze Figure 3.1a. Do respondents perceive much inequality close to home?  Analyze Figure 3.2a. What are the 2 most important reasons respondents give for why people are poor? 2 least important reasons?  Analyze Figure 3.2b. What are the 2 most important reasons respondents give for why people are rich? 2 least important reasons?  What do Whyte’s findings suggest about the world view/ideology of survey respondents?  Do you agree with the majority of respondents in this survey?

Attitudes toward inequality