Update on the Demography of London LSE Lent Seminar Series th March 2013 Ms Baljit Bains

Outline  Update on Demographic trends in London  Outline of current estimates and projections  2011 Census Snapshot

London Births 1965 to 2010

Fertility rates 2000/2 to 2008/10

Top boroughs – birth increase/decrease  Top 3 boroughs (% increase): – Croydon: 7.0% or 371 births – Southwark: 6.8% or 329 births – Brent: 6.1% or 310 births  Top 3 boroughs (% decrease): – Richmond upon Thames: -2.9% or -88 births – Hackney: -2.1% or -95 births – Camden: -1.7% or -53 births

London: Internal migration

UK: International migration

NINo registrations: Bulgaria and Romania

Population Estimates and Projections ONS projections released over the last two years has led to significant upwards revisions of projected future populations. 1) Changes to international migration methodology ONS 2010 Based Sub National Population Projections (SNPP) 2) 2011 Census population – 8.17 million ONS 2011 Based Interim SNPP 2011 Census Average Household Size increase

Estimates and Projections

2012 Round demographic projections: Greater London

2010 SNPP migration assumptions

Crash

Where were the problems….. – 2001 Census enumeration Likely underestimation of the London population and then subsequent mid- year estimates (MYE). Any underestimate in the 2001 baseline that both ONS and the GLA utilised would have carried through into subsequent years. The extent of the undercount may prove impossible to estimate with any accuracy. – Underestimation of international inflows The methodology ONS used for assigning international in-migrants between local authorities underestimated for London as a whole. – Underestimation of average household size by government sources Household formation rates from DCLG household projections assumed declining average household size.

Forecasts: Out with the old…  Average Household Size future trends – Rethink declining AHS trend particularly in the short term  More sophisticated trend based assumptions – Rethink fertility scenarios – Rethink migration scenarios

(Possible) household size scenarios

(Possible) migration scenario CrashRecovery

2011 Census: London  Population: 8.17 million usual residents  Households: 3.27million, an increase of 8.3% since  Over 36% born outside the UK (cf 27% in 2001)  Four London boroughs where less than half population is UK born – Brent (44.9 per cent), – Newham (46.3 per cent), – Westminster (46.7 per cent) and – Kensington & Chelsea (48.4 per cent)

Country of Birth

Migrants: Less than 2 years length of stay (%)

Migrants: More than 10 years length of stay (%)

Housing Tenure

Percentage change 2001 to 2011: Owns with a mortgage or loan

Housing in London  In London between 2001 and 2011 the number of houses and bungalows rose by 1.8 per cent (28,700) while the number of flats increased by 18.6 per cent (277,500).  The number of dwellings in Tower Hamlets increased by nearly 33 % in the same period The largest proportional increase in London  London is by far the most over-crowded region in England & Wales with 11.6 per cent of households having too few bedrooms for their occupants.  London Boroughs make up 19 of the top 20 most overcrowded local authorities in England & Wales.  The highest being Newham (25.4 per cent), Brent (18 per cent) and Tower Hamlets (16.8 per cent.

Religion

Languages in London  74 per cent of households in London contain occupants who all have English as their main language, compared to 91 per cent nationally.  22.1 per cent of Londoners list a language other than English as their main language, a total of 1.73 million people  41.6 per cent of non-English speakers in England & Wales live in London  Polish is the main language of 147,800 of the capital’s residents  Bengali is the most spoken Asian language in London while Somali is the most spoken African language  In Newham 41.4 per cent of residents report a language other than English as their main language  In Havering just 4.6 per cent list a language other than English  9 of the top 10 most linguistically diverse local authorities in England & Wales are in London

Main non-English Languages in London

Proportion of Households where English is not the main language of occupants

Limiting Long-term Illness Percentage Change

Next releases of Census data  Starting May Detailed Characteristics (multivariate) at local authority level, followed by MSOA and Ward geographies,  Local Characteristics data will now be Release 4 (summer).  More details of the exact timings of these releases are expected in April.

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