Analysis of the future criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors Phase II Systemic risk and vulnerability analysis Step 12 © Pierre Ibisch 2013

Credits and conditions of use 12. Analysis of the future criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors2 You are free to share this presentation and adapt it for your use under the following conditions: You must attribute the work in the manner specified by the authors (but not in any way that suggests that they endorse you or your use of the work). You may not use this work for commercial purposes. If you alter, transform, or build upon this work, you must remove the Centre for Econics and Ecosystem Management logo, and you may distribute the resulting work only under the same or similar conditions to this one. © Centre for Econics and Ecosystem Management, 2014 The Centre for Econics and Ecosystem Management strongly recommends that this presentation is given by experts familiar with the adaptive management process in general (especially as designed as the Conservation Measures Partnership’s Open Standards for the Practice of Conservation) as well as the MARISCO Method itself. This material was created under the leadership and responsibility of Prof. Dr. Pierre Ibisch and Dr. Peter Hobson, co- directors of the Centre for Econics and Ecosystem Management, which was jointly established by Eberswalde University for Sustainable Development and Writtle College. Compare: Ibisch, P.L. & P.R. Hobson (eds.) (2014): The MARISCO method: Adaptive MAnagement of vulnerability and RISk at COnservation sites. A guidebook for risk-robust, adaptive, and ecosystem-based conservation of biodiversity. Centre for Econics and Ecosystem Management, Eberswalde (ISBN ). 195 pp. - The Powerpoint Presentation was conceived by Christina Lehmann and Pierre Ibisch. Authors of graphs and photographs are indicated on the corresponding slides. Supported by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH on behalf of the Bundesministerium für wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung (BMZ).

12. Analysis of the future criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors3

Learning objectives Participants are able to explain the rationale for this step important to assess future criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors as a basis for the formulation of proactive strategies. Participants have the skills to guide the project team through the rating process using the relevant rating criteria for future criticality. 12. Analysis of the future criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors4

? Outline What does analysing the future criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors mean? Why do we analyse the future criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors? How do we analyse the future criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors? Practical Tips 12. Analysis of the future criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors5

? What does analysing the future criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors mean? Attempt to add information to stresses/ threats/ contributing factors in order to recognise most relevant impacting factors to biodiversity object Taking possible future developments into account 12. Analysis of the future criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors6 Today Tomorrow ? © Christina Lehmann 2014

? Why do we analyse the future criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors? To judge about the future criticality of certain elements in the conceptual model and identify lever elements that may become more important in the future (increasing relevance) To be able to focus on certain elements in the strategy development in order to achieve sustainable/ conservational goals To increase the awareness towards possible future trends that e.g. need to be kept or improved 12. Analysis of the future criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors7

? How do we analyse the future criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors? Discussions and consensual decisions about the future criticality of each factor, threat and stress → how “dangerous” will this factor/ threat/ stress possibly be for the biodiversity object and its key ecological attributes? 12. Analysis of the future criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors8 © Pierre Ibisch 2014 Based on: best-guess approach → no empirically derived out- comes necessary Most plausible (current) future scenarios The judgement for future criti- cality does not imply a separate ranking of scope, severity, irreversibility (just as for past criticality), as it is done for current criticality

? How do we analyse the future criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors? Results are recorded in rating matrix of MARISCO cards as well as in an Excel spreadsheet Rating categories for “Future criticality”: 12. Analysis of the future criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors9 © CEEM 2014

? Practical Tips The participants should rate this aspect according to the current situation → They should imagine the future condition without any management or intervention from humans → It is supposed to show how dangerous a continuation of the present behaviour can be 12. Analysis of the future criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors10