Prof. John C. Mutter Deputy Director The Earth Institute at Columbia University Disasters and Development : Including Hurricane Katrina: How did a poor world disaster happen in a rich country?

Disasters and the poorest Does this have to be? Can your science help people like this?

Collecting water near Kararo Ethiopia

Disasters and the poorest Does this have to be?

Can our science help people like this …… Can our science help people like this ……

Kararo Village Ethiopia

Can our science help people like this …… Can our science help people like this ……

The divide today richpoor GNP PPP/person $26,320$4,450 population (billion) % increase/year % with HIV/AIDS infant mortality rate 6/100059/1000 children/woman life expectancy 7665 % urban 7641 people/km

 There is a global ecology of human well-being  Small variations around the norm in poor countries can act like disasters in rich countries -- the poorest are the most vulnerable  Natural disasters preferentially imperil the poorest Three part case for the co-dependence of human well-being and the state of the planet

Income per person, PPP (1998)

GDP per capita as a function of latitude. Poverty has a latitudinal dependence (J. Sachs)

Infant Mortality

A summary composite index that measures a country's average achievements in three basic aspects of human development: LONGEVITY -- life expectancy at birth; KNOWLEDGE -- a combination of the adult literacy rate and the combined primary, secondary, and tertiary gross enrolment ratio; STANDARD of LIVING -- GDP per capita (Adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity, PPP, in US$). HDI is a more comprehensive measure of deprivation than income. What is the Human Development Index (HDI)?

HDI versus latitude

Climate variability and Malaria risk in Botswana

 Preferentially imperil the poorest people Large total deaths Large relative to population Large relative to level of exposure  Mortality risk is gender and age selective  Effect on market economy often minimal Characteristics of global disasters impacts

Disaster mortality risk from combined hazards (World Bank Hot Spots: Dilley, Chen, Lerner-Lam et al)

Aggregate Natural Disasters Source UNDP 2004

Very old and young and women are at greatest risk

Females have small survival advantage

Men have a small advantage

Amenabad India

School Algeria 1980

Islamanbad Pakistan 2005

Northridge California

Flod vulnerability W.r.to latitude and HD

Tsunami damage Sri Lanka

Tsunami damage Sri Lanka

Mortality risk is a combination of physical and social Vulnerabilities: fragile dwellings in risky places.

Flood disaster economic losses Flood disaster economic losses Flood disaster mortality

Typical levee failures

Sources: Metairie New Orleans Jefferson Parish St. Bernards Parish East Orleans Algiers (Lower Ninth Ward) Outcomes of Social and Physical Vulnerability

Total deceases victims to date But definition of Katrina victim is uncertain:  those who died during or after moving to a different state may not be counted.  Approx 1000 remain unaccounted for.  Total may be close to 2000 Demographic and Geographic selectivity of victims

Top 10 Hurrican Death Tolls Since 1900  Galveston (1900):8,000  Lake Okeechobee(1928):2,500  Katrina(2005): 1,417  Unnamed (1919):600  New England(1938):600  Labor Day(1935):408  Audrey(1957):390  Great Atlantic(1944):390  Great Isle(1909):390  Unnamed (1915):350

  # 3, Calcutta cyclone (India)   # 2,500 - Andhra Pradesh cyclone, 1996   # 2,334 - Typhoon Iris (China, 1959)   # 2,150 - hurricane, (Caribbean, 1935)   # 2,060 - Hurricane David, (Dominican Republic, U.S., 1979)   # 2,000-3,000 - hurricane, (Central America, 1934)   # 2,000 - hurricane, (Gulf of Mexico, 1780)   # 2,000 - hurricane, (Florida, 1781)   # 2,000 - hurricane, (Cuba, Florida, 1870)   # 2,000 - Chenier Caminada Hurricane, (Louisiana, 1893)   # 1,620 - Hurricane Stan, (Mexico, Central America, 2005)   # 1,605 - Hurricane Katrina, (United States, 2005) not including 2,500 missing[1]   # 1,600 - Typhoon Mary, (China, 1960)   # 1,500-2,500 - hurricane, (Windward Islands, 1831)   # 1,500-2,500 - hurricane, (Central America, 1931)   # 1,500 - hurricane, (Greater Antilles, Mexico, 1909)   # 1,300 - Typhoon Ike, (Philippines, 1984)   # 1,200 - Hurricane Hazel (Bahamas, Haiti, U.S., Canada,1954)   # 1,145 - Hurricane Gordon (Haiti, U.S., 1994) Katrina in comparison

910 deceased victims processed at St Gabriel Morgue as of Jan 18th 786 identified with age, gender and race (approx half the total victims) 629 released to families Demographic and Geographic selectivity of deceased victims

Gender 51% male 49% femaleRace 50% African American 42% Caucasian All other groups less than 4% Demographic and Geographic selectivity of deceased victims

Sources: Outcomes of Social and Physical Vulnerability

Flood vulnerability

Gender 51% male 49% femaleRace 50% African American 42% Caucasian All other groups less than 4% Demographic and Geographic selectivity of deceased victims

Age: the equalizer 64% older than 60 yrs 39% older than 75 yrs 1% less than 5 yrs less than 4% younger than 20 yrs less than 20% younger than 50 yrs Demographic and Geographic selectivity of deceased victims

Katrina effect Katrina Effect on Flood Vulnerability

Flood vulnerability

Katrina Effect on Flood vulnerability US K Katrina effect