Northwest Geographic Area Coordination Center Predictive Services Late Summer and Autumn 2013 Significant Fire Potential Outlook Thursday September 5 th 2013

Temperatures and Precipitation Observed August 2013 Temperatures Precipitation

Climate summary Precipitation observed since January 1st 2013 Accumulated precipitation percentage of normal VERY DRY!

ERC (model G) Sep hr Sep

Temperatures Precipitation Temperature and Precipitation Outlook: September 2013 No unusual wet or dry trend foreseen. Likely to be above normal

Temperature and Precipitation Outlook October, November, December 2013 Probably unusually warm over the Great Basin but not most of the PACNW Temperatures Signs of above average precipitation in eastern WA Precipitation

NWCC Predictive Services outlook for: September 2013 Rounds of wet thundershowers in August helped reduce fire danger back to near normal values by the end of the month. Despite forecasts of a warm September, the potential for new large fires is expected to be no greater than usual.

NWCC Predictive Services outlook for: October 2013 The potential for large fires is typically low in October. The risk of large fires in October of 2013 is expected to be no greater than usual.

Next NWCC Outlook update: First week of October 2013