RT Modelling of CMEs Using WSA- ENLIL Cone Model 2014-06-04 1.

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Presentation transcript:

RT Modelling of CMEs Using WSA- ENLIL Cone Model

Outline 2 Basic Principles behind cone modeling of CMEs. Brief description of the models Analyzing CME propagation and impact Operations example: collaboration with AFWA

Cone Model for CMEs The CME cone model is based on observational evidence that CME has more or less constant angular diameter in corona, being confined by the external magnetic field, so that CME does not expand in latitude in the lower corona, but expands in interplanetary space because of the weaker external field CME propagates with nearly constant angular width in a radial direction CME bulk velocity is radial and the expansion is isotropic Zhao et al, 2002, Cone Model: The projection of the cone on the POS is an ellipse Overly simplistic approximation to describe halo CME

Cone Modelling for Halo CMEs 4 CME V and orientation Input to WSA-ENLIL SOHO LASCO C3 difference images Xie et al, 2004, Cone Model for Halo CMEs – analytical method A. Pulkkinen, 2010, Cone Model for Halo CMEs – automatic method

July 12, 2012CME Viewed by Coronagraph Imagers

Parameters Defined with CCMC CME Triangulation Tool CME Parameters: Input To WSA-ENLIL Cone Model WSA-ENLIL Cone Model

Sun, Planets, CME 7 Constant Latitude Plane passing through Earth Meridional Plane 1AU quasi- sphere Heliocentric Earth Equatorial Coordinates - Heliographic

Cone model parameters tstart - when cloud at 21.5Rs Latitude Longitude Radius (angular width)‏ Vr - radial velocity Input to ENLIL cone model run 8

WSA- Input to ENLIL 9 WSA (Wang-Sheeley-Arge, AFRL): PFSS (Potential Field Source Surface). Input: synoptic map photospheric magnetogram. Force free (even current free) solution with radial field at 2.5 R o. Schatten Current Sheet. Input: PFSS. Modifies the sign of radial field to positive to prevent reconnection, creates potential solution with radial boundary conditions, restores the sign in the new solution at 5 Ro. WSA. Input: Schatten CS. Assuming radial constant speed flow at 5 Ro uses empirical formula for speed, determined by the rate of divergence of the magnetic field at 5 Ro and proximity of the given field line to the coronal hole boundary.

ENLIL - Schematic Description 10 ENLIL – Sumerian God of Winds and Storms Dusan Odstrcil, GMU & GSFC Input: WSA (coronal maps of Br and Vr updated 4 times a day). For toroidal components at the inner boundary- Parker spiral. ENLIL’s inner radial boundary is located beyond the sonic point: the solar wind flow is supersonic in ENLIL. Computes a time evolution of the global solar wind for the inner heliosphere, driven by corotating background structure and transient disturbances (CMEs) at it’s inner radial boundary at 21.5 Ro. Solves ideal fully ionized plasma MHD equations in 3D with two additional continuity equations: for density of transient and polarity of the radial component of B.

ENLIL Schematic Description (cont.) 11 ENLIL model does not take into account the realistic complex magnetic field structure of the CME magnetic cloud and the CME as a plasma cloud has a uniform velocity. It is assumed that the CME density is 4 times larger than the ambient fast solar wind density, the temperature is the same. Thus, the CME has about four times larger pressure than the ambient fast wind. Launching of an over pressured plasma cloud at 21.5 Rs, roughly represents CME eruption scenario Output: 3D distribution of the SW parameters at spacecrafts and planets and topology of IMF.

CME modeling 12

CME Impact – arrival, duration, MP standoff distance Magnetic field required to stop SW Magnetopaus e standoff distance 13 CME shock arrival – a sharp jump in the dynamic pressure Duration of the disturbance – duration of the dynamic pressure hump

Kp Index – P. Newel’s Empirical Expression 14 Magnetic flux opening rate at the magnetopause Z

15 AFWA Collaboration AFWA CME alert based on CCMC iSWA LASCO C3 difference image analysis CCMC RT WSA/ENLIL Cone Model run using the most recently updated GONG magnetogram AFWA

16 AFWA Collaboration 2 AFWA

17 AFWA Collaboration Estimate

18 for NASA missions Estimate