Super Schedule Analysis USING THE SUPER RANKINGS TO ANALYZE YOUR FANTASY SCHEDULE MAT HARRISON

What Are the Super Rankings?  The Super Rankings derived from pitting the fantasy player against the fantasy defense on a weekly basis.  Two years ago, CP and I put on our analyst hats, and added key stat inputs (offensive line ranking, age, depth, career carries and projections) in order to project a full season.  This didn’t come without many mistakes, pain and agony  We bounced several ideas back and forth, almost acting as fantasy therapists with the Super Rankings as the lost subject.  We put it all together and we got…

Analyst + Therapist =

Key Points About Schedule Analysis  Good and bad STARTS are much easier to predict than easy or difficult fantasy playoff runs.  Today, we’re not looking at the end of the season.  Looking for favorable starts to the season.  Avoiding difficult stretches to kick off the year.  If you roster too many players with a tough open to the schedule, by Week 7 you may have changed your license plate to this…

The Curious Case of Nick Foles

 Last year Nick Foles started 11 games, had 27 TD passes and only 2 interceptions.  His opponents (rank vs. QB): Giants (12), Buccaneers (27), Cowboys (31), Raiders (29), Packers (26), Washington (22), Cardinals (19), Lions (14), Vikings (32), Bears (9), Cowboys AGAIN (31)  SEVEN of his opponents were in the bottom 10 vs. QBs  Only ONE of his opponents cracked the top 10

Schedule Means Something  The five toughest schedules for QBs last season:  Arizona - Carson Palmer (finished 25 th among QBs)  Atlanta – Matt Ryan (finished 18 th – well below ADP)  Minnesota – Christian Ponder (finished in Minnesota)  San Francisco – Colin Kaepernick (finished 14 th – well below ADP)  Tampa Bay – Josh Freeman (was cut in October, may finish in Canada)  Tampa Bay – Mike Glennon (impressed so much that he was replaced by Josh McCown)

Today’s Super Rankings  Today we’re using a yardage-heavy scoring system  1 point/25 yards passing  1 point/10 yards rushing or receiving  1 point per reception  4 points per touchdown pass  6 points per rushing or receiving touchdown  For more versions of the Super Rankings, check out LeagueSafe Post

Quarterbacks – Hot Starts Drew Brees Start: at ATL, at CLE, MIN, at DAL, TB, bye, at DET, GB SIX of those seven teams finished as BOTTOM 13 in FFpts vs. QB last season Russell Wilson Start: GB, at SD, DEN, bye, at WAS, DAL ALL FIVE of those teams finished in the bottom 11 last season FFpts vs. QB Sam Bradford Start: MIN, at TB, DAL, bye, at PHI ALL FOUR of those teams finished in the bottom 8 last year vs. QB. BRADFORD BUYERS BEWARE: His next 4 games: SF (twice) SEA, KC

Quarterbacks – Tough Starts Aaron Rodgers Start: at SEA, NYJ, at DET, at CHI, MIN, at MIA, CAR, at NO FIVE of Rodgers first eight opponents finished in the top 9 vs. QBs last season Jay Cutler Start: BUF, at SF, at NYJ, GB, at CAR, at ATL, MIA FOUR of Cutler’s first seven opponents finished in the top 8 vs. QBs in 2013 Joe Flacco Start: CIN, PIT, at CLE, CAR, at IND Only Cleveland did not finish in the top half vs. QB last year, they get healthy Joe Haden and rookie Justin Gilbert

Running Backs – Hot Starts Arian Foster Start: WAS, at OAK, at NYG, BUF, at DAL WAS, OAK and DAL were bottom 5 vs. RBs last season Pierre Thomas Start: at ATL, at CLE, MIN, DAL Three of the Saints first four opponents were bottom 10 in the league vs. RBs in 2013 Frank Gore Start: at DAL, CHI Dallas and Chicago were the worst two defenses vs. RB last year, Gore gets them in Week 1 and 2.

Running Backs – Tough Starts Ryan Mathews Start: at ARI, SEA, at BUF, JAC, NYJ Arizona, Seattle and the Jets were the 3 toughest teams to run on in 2013 Rashad Jennings Start: at DET, ARI, HOU Detroit and Arizona were top 4 vs. RB last season, Houston ranked 15 th. Steven Jackson (didn’t make this list!) Start: NO, at CIN, TB Each of those three teams were in the top 8 against RBs last season. Montee Ball Start: IND, KC, at SEA, bye, ARI, at NYJ, SF, SD SIX of his first seven games are against top 13 defenses vs. RB (KC was 16 th )

Wide Receivers – Hot Starts Andre Johnson Start: WAS, at OAK, at NYG, BUF, at DAL WAS, OAK and DAL were bottom 12 vs. WRs last season, BUF 15th Victor Cruz Start: at DET, ARI, HOU, at WAS, ATL, at PHI, at DAL Five of Cruz’s first seven opponents ranked in the bottom 12 vs. WR in 2013 Julian Edelman Start: at MIA, at MIN, OAK, at KC Miami was 8 th best vs. WR last year, Vikings, Raiders and Chiefs were bottom 10 in the league vs. position

Wide Receivers – Tough Starts Keenan Allen Start: at ARI, SEA Patrick Peterson and Richard Sherman to kick off a season, thank you very much. Julio Jones Start: NO, at CIN, TB, at MIN, at NYG Giants, Bengals and Saints each ranked in the top 8 vs. WR last year. Tampa added Verner Void, Vikings secondary should be better under Zimmer Vincent Jackson Start: CAR, STL, at ATL, at PIT, at NO Panthers, Saints, Steelers ranked in top 12 vs. position in 2013, Rams not far behind in 15 th

I wish you nothing this season