Responding to Drought (and other) Conditions on the Colorado River Urban Water Institute’s 21 st Annual Conference August 14, 2014

Natural Flow Colorado River at Lees Ferry Gaging Station, Arizona Water Year 1906 to 2014

State of the System (Water Years ) 1

Water Year Snowpack and Precipitation as of August 11, 2014 Colorado River Basin above Lake Powell Water Year 2014 Precipitation (year-to-date) 99% of average Current Snowpack NA Chart developed with SNOTEL data as of August 11, 2014 Snowpack peaked at 111% on April 7, 2014

Basin Storage As of 8/3/ % 67% 80% 88% 100% 5 Reservoir A-J Inflow Forecast (KAF) Percent of Average 1 Fontenelle1,020141% Flaming Gorge1,159118% Blue Mesa849126% Navajo42858% Powell6,92397% April to July Observed Unregulated Inflow (Issued August 1) Upper Basin Storage period

Colorado River Basin Storage (as of August 10, 2014) Current Storage Percent Full MAF Elevation (Feet) Lake Powell51%12.493,608 Lake Mead38%10.031,080 Total System Storage* 51%30.40NA *Total system storage was maf or 50% this time last year

Water Budget at Lake Mead Given basic apportionments in the Lower Basin, the allotment to Mexico, and an 8.23 maf release from Lake Powell, Lake Mead storage declines  Inflow = 9.0 maf (release from Powell + side inflows)  Outflow = maf (AZ, CA, NV, and Mexico delivery + downstream regulation and gains/losses)  Mead evaporation loss = maf  Balance= maf Data based on long-term averages

State of the System (Water Years ) 1

QSA-RELATED WATER TRANSFERS CALIFORNIA IID to MWD: Up to 110,000 af/yr IID to Salton Sea Mitigation: Up to 150,000 af/yr through 2017 IID to CVWD: Up to 103,000 af/yr IID&CVWD to SLR: Up to 16,000 af/yr IID to SDCWA: Up to 200,000 af/yr + 56,200 af/yr from AAC Lining CVWD to SDCWA: 21,500 af/yr from CCLP

LOWER COLORADO RIVER MSCP PURPOSE Multi-stakeholder Federal and non- Federal partnership responding to the need to balance the use of lower Colorado River (LCR) water resources and the conservation of native species and their habitats in compliance with the Endangered Species Act.

Interim Guidelines for Operation of Lake Powell and Lake Mead In place for an interim period (through 2026) Key provisions: –Operation for Lake Powell and Lake Mead is specified throughout the full range of operation –Strategy for shortages in the Lower Basin is specified, including a provision for additional shortages if warranted –Mechanism (Intentionally Created Surplus or ICS) is established to encourage efficient and flexible water use in the Lower Basin

Lake Powell & Lake Mead Operational Diagrams and Current Conditions 8/10/14 1,080 8/10/ /10/14 3, /10/14

Minute year interim bi-national agreement Promotes sharing, conserving and storing water Demonstrates shared commitment to cooperation and partnership Components include: –Ability to defer delivery of water/ICMA –High/low reservoir operation –Water for the Environment- ICMA->ICS Exchange Pilot –Study of future joint projects November 20, 2012 Signing Ceremony

Projected Future Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand

State of the System (Water Years ) 1

Lower SNWA Intake 1,000 ft 1,080 ft maf (38% of Live Capacity) 895 ft Dead Pool Elevation Lake Mead Capacity 1,219.6 ft 26.1 maf Dead Pool (2.5 maf) Inactive Pool (7.7 maf) Not to scale 140 ft As of Aug 10, ,145 ft 30 ft 1,075 ft Shortage Conditions 1,050 ft Surplus Conditions Normal or ICS Surplus Conditions Min Power Pool 16.2 maf

Risk Risk can be viewed as the chance (or probability) an event will occur times the consequence if the event does occur  risk = chance X consequence To quantify the risk of an event:  Must assess the chance  Must assess the consequence Dealing with risk  Determine what risks need to be mitigated (i.e., what is our tolerance of the assessed risk?)  Determine activities/actions that will mitigate those risks  Update as the future unfolds

2008 start, observed hydrology (FEIS)

Mead Elevation < 1,000 feet msl

Drought Contingency Planning

Responding to Drought (and other) Conditions on the Colorado River