Overview of the Freight Analysis Framework Rolf R. Schmitt January, 2008

Federal Highway Administration U.S. Department of Transportation To inform policy and investment, we need to understand How does the movement of freight affect the transportation system?  Contributions to congestion, infrastructure wear, safety, the environment, revenues How does the transportation system affect freight movement?  Expected and unexpected delay, costs How does the economy adjust?  Economic productivity, shifting economic activity among regions, global competitiveness

Federal Highway Administration U.S. Department of Transportation To answer these questions, we need to understand How much freight moves from place to place?  Type of commodity  Weight  Value How is the freight carried?  Mode of transportation  Route used When is the freight carried?  Season  Time of day

Federal Highway Administration U.S. Department of Transportation The big picture Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) integrates data from many sources into:  Region-to-region tons and value by all modes for shipments in 1997 and 2002, provisional estimates for most recent year, and forecasts through 2035  Average number of long-distance, freight-hauling trucks on individual highway segments for 2002 and 2035 Freight Performance Measures Program  Speeds of 400,000 trucks on 25 Interstate Highways by time and place  Crossing delay at major border crossings

Federal Highway Administration U.S. Department of Transportation What FAF does Estimate total volume of freight moving between and within FAF regions by mode and commodity Assign longer distance flows (among places at least 50 miles apart) to corridors with reasonable accuracy Forecast total volume of freight moving between and within FAF regions by mode and commodity Forecast the pressure future freight flows would place on the existing network

Federal Highway Administration U.S. Department of Transportation What FAF does not do Estimate flows accurately for areas smaller than FAF regions Estimate flows accurately for individual routes with alternative paths and for places less than 50 miles apart Estimate temporal variations in freight flows Estimate or be sensitive to costs of transportation Include effects of capacity limitations in forecasts of future demand Forecast future capacity expansion

Federal Highway Administration U.S. Department of Transportation Bottom line FAF provides a comprehensive national picture of freight flows and a baseline forecast to support policy studies FAF indicates to states and localities their major trading partners and the volumes and sources of through traffic at the corridor level Local planning and project analysis requires supplemental data collection to provide local detail Policy analysis requires supplemental models to make forecasts sensitive to cost and other variables

Federal Highway Administration U.S. Department of Transportation FAF versions Version 1 covers longer distance flows for 1998, 2010, and 2020 by all modes except pipeline, with available public detail and transparency limited by proprietary data Version 2 makes the most of the 2002 Economic Census and is based on public data and transparent methods Version 2.2 corrects problems encountered with international flows the initial release of version 2 Version 2.3 will include ton miles estimates and final adjustments to version 2 Version 3 will be based on the 2007 Economic Census

Federal Highway Administration U.S. Department of Transportation FAF details: region-to-region flows Origin-Destination Database  Value and weight for all domestic shipments, exports, and imports (excludes only foreign-to-foreign via US)  6 modes (truck, rail, water, air, intermodal, pipeline and unknown)  114 domestic CFS regions, 17 additional international gateways, 7 international regions  43 commodity classes (2-digit SCTG codes)  Estimates for Economic Census years (1997 and 2002), forecasts for 2010 through Provisional estimates for most recent year

Federal Highway Administration U.S. Department of Transportation FAF details: the 114 CFS regions

Federal Highway Administration U.S. Department of Transportation FAF details: trucks on the network Network Flow Database  FAF trucks (which carry commodities between locations at least 50 miles apart), other trucks, passenger vehicles, and selected capacity measures for individual highway segments  Covers over 240,000 miles of highways (46,000 miles of the Interstate System plus 115,000 for balance of National Highway System, plus 47,000 miles for balance of National Truck Network plus 35,000 of other roads)  Estimate for 2002, forecast of traffic with no change to capacity for 2035

Federal Highway Administration U.S. Department of Transportation FAF details: trucks on the network

Federal Highway Administration U.S. Department of Transportation FAF details: data sources Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) Transborder Freight Transportation Data Rail Waybill Waterborne Commerce Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey Highway Performance Monitoring System National Transportation Atlas Database Transportation Satellite Account

Federal Highway Administration U.S. Department of Transportation FAF details: relationship with CFS The CFS is the major data source for the FAF and provides domestic geography and definitions of modes/intermodal The CFS has greater commodity detail and identifies hazardous cargo, but does not include imports, shipments from farms, shipments of crude petroleum and municipal solid waste, etc. The FAF estimates tons and value of freight not covered by the CFS

Federal Highway Administration U.S. Department of Transportation FAF details: relationship with the Rail Waybill Shipments by more than one railroad are counted more than once in the Rail Waybill and only once in the FAF Shipments by rail and one or more other modes are counted as rail in the Rail Waybill and as Intermodal in the FAF

Federal Highway Administration U.S. Department of Transportation FAF details: relationship with Waterborne Commerce Shipments by a combination of deep sea, inland water, and intra-port are counted once in the FAF and multiple times in Waterborne Commerce Crude petroleum from off-shore platforms is counted as water in Waterborne Commerce and pipeline in FAF Shipments to and from Puerto Rico are counted as domestic in Waterborne Commerce and as part of Latin America in FAF

Federal Highway Administration U.S. Department of Transportation FAF details: what is intermodal? FAF intermodal is more than TOFC-COFC  All 2+ modal combinations reported in CFS, including bulk products  Postal and courier services for packages weighing less than 100 pounds reported in CFS  Excludes air-truck combination for shipments weighing more than 100 pounds, which is not separated from air only FAF intermodal does not include single mode segments of a supply chain involving multiple shippers FAF classifies intermodal shipments across borders with Canada and Mexico by the mode of entry

Federal Highway Administration U.S. Department of Transportation FAF details: what is intermodal? Domestic only  1.1 percent of tons and 8.9 percent of value in 2002 Domestic leg of imports and exports  1.3 percent of tons and 2.6 percent of value in 2002 Imports and exports  66.1 percent of tons and 45.9 percent of value in 2002 Domestic plus imports plus exports  6.6 percent of tons and 14.7 percent of value in 2002

Federal Highway Administration U.S. Department of Transportation FAF details: relationship with GDP The value of FAF shipments exceeds GDP  FAF counts each commodity move during the year: grain worth $1,000 from farm to grain elevator which becomes grain worth $1,200 from elevator to bakery which becomes bread worth $2,000 from bakery to store is three tons of freight.  GDP counts net value: the value of bread consumed by households during the year and the value grain still in storage and bread still on the shelves at the end of the year.

Federal Highway Administration U.S. Department of Transportation Building on FAF Improved forecasts  Quick Response Freight Manual  NCFRP project on freight forecasting  Links to HERS and other policy models Improved data  More accurate truck counts  Links to freight performance measures and vehicle classification data for understanding consequences and temporal variation  Local data collection for local detail

Federal Highway Administration U.S. Department of Transportation FAF quality depends on customer feedback Do the estimates match observations?  FAF databases are huge, and unexpected results do not appear until users dig into the details  Most unexpected region-to-region flows have plausible explanations, but some flows appear to be improperly assigned among modes or commodities.  Adjustments will be made where feasible in version 2.3 Does the de facto Freight Data Architecture make sense?  Architecture includes modal definitions, commodity classification systems, and other means of linking across national data sets and between national and local data  NCFRP project will specify what should be in an architecture

Federal Highway Administration U.S. Department of Transportation Questions and feedback FAF Rolf Schmitt FAF design, freight modeling, and freight data architecture Michael Sprung FAF products and data sources Freight performance measures Crystal Jones Travel times in freight-significant corridors and border crossing delay