C ONFLICT A NALYSIS Systematic study of the profile, root causes, actors, and dynamics contributing to either violent conflict and/or peace Conflict Analysis should capture the multi- dimensionality (political, social, economic, security, human rights etc.) of a conflict. It should be tailored to any geographic area or programmatic level. Conflict analysis also serves an opportunity to engage different stakeholders to participate and develop a shared understanding of the context to inform a shared vision on development and peace building priorities. Provides an opportunity to prioritize development interventions and plan more strategically

W HAT C ONFLICT A NALYSIS IS NOT Common sense and perception of dynamics An academic piece Not a desk report Not a chronology Not an compilation of reports Not a one-off exercise Context Analysis A separate exercise de-linked from planning and programming

K EY ELEMENTS OF CONFLICT ANALYSIS Profile/Situation Analysis Causal Analysis Stakeholder Analysis Analysis of Conflict Dynamics Prioritization

K EY FEATURES OF C ONFLICT A NALYSIS There are many frameworks and methodologies on conflict analysis available. UNICEF uses the “UN conflict analysis methodology” adaptable to the diverse planning scenarios Conflict analysis is part of several inter-agency planning frameworks- UNICEF needs to be an active player Process is as important if not more than the outcome.

K EY FEATURES OF C ONFLICT A NALYSIS Quality conflict analysis requires appropriate investment by the Country Office (staff, resources, time, process) Conflict analysis is only useful if translated into the programming cycle Important for UNICEF is the identification of both root causes and conflict triggers because of dual mandate.

UNICEF AND C ONFLICT A NALYSIS Building on inter-agency and broader conflict analysis, zoom in on conflict dynamics particularly relevant for children and women, including: - Social dimensions of conflict - Children’s rights - Gender - Equitable access to services - Protection and security - Adolescents and youth - Restoring the citizen-state social compact

Conflict triggers Underlying causes VIOLENT CONFLICT Root causes Causal Analysis framework

Source: FAO

P ROBLEM T REE EXAMPLE ( ADAPTED FROM UNDP KENYA /A CORD /NSC*) Violent conflict between x and y Causes Problem Effects * Publication by UNDP Kenya, Acord, and the Kenyan National Steering Committee for Peace building: Community Peace Recovery and Reconciliation Displacement Children out of school Destruction of houses public infrastructure Food insecurity Loss of livelihoods Cattle killing Closure market Continued insecurity Emotional and physical damage Rape of girls fetching water Violence, Killing of humans Group x marginalized Past forced relocation of x to area y Ethnic mistrust Limited access to education, health, water Youth unemployment Lack of dispute resolution mechanisms Inequitable access to natural resources Prevalence of small arms Spill-over from conflict in X

Exercise – Problem Tree Instructions 1.Based on the analysis you did on your country situation, identify one key problem that has a direct link to the main conflict dynamics in the country. 2.Identify causes of the key problem at 2 levels: - conflict triggers - underlying/root causes 3. Identify existing and potential effects of the problem.