1 Who has more influence on Asian Stock Markets around the Subprime Mortgage Crisis － the U.S. or China? Chien-Chung Nieh* Chao-Hsiang Yang** Yu-Sheng Kao*** Chien-Chung Nieh* Chao-Hsiang Yang** Yu-Sheng Kao*************** January 7, 2011 ** Professor of Department of Banking and Finance, Tamkang University, Taipei, Taiwan. * **** Ph.D. student of Department of Banking and Finance, Tamkang University, Taipei, Taiwan. ** ****** Ph.D. student of Department of Banking and Finance, Tamkang University, Taipei, Taiwan. ***

2 Abstract Investigate the changes in the long-run asymmetric equilibrium relationships between the U.S. and China ’ s stock markets and six major Asian stock markets of Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, South Korea and India around the subprime mortgage crisis by the Enders and Siklos (2001) asymmetric threshold co-integration model.

3 The main findings demonstrated that with the application of traditional symmetric co-integration tests of Engle and Granger (1987), the subprime mortgage crisis did not reinforce the co- movement trends between the U.S. and China ’ s markets and Asian markets. However, with the application of the Enders- Siklos threshold co-integration test, there was significant increase in these asymmetric co-integration relationships between them during the period of the subprime mortgage crisis.

4 Four different approaches utilized to measure international shock transmission effect by Dornbusch et al. (2000) and Forbes and Rigobon (2001). Four different approaches utilized to measure international shock transmission effect by Dornbusch et al. (2000) and Forbes and Rigobon (2001). Cross-market correlation coefficients (the change of common trend) ARCH or GARCH frameworks (volatility spillover effect) Co-integration techniques (the change of common trend) Direct estimation of specific transmission mechanisms by using the Probit model. Literature Review

5 ResearchersapproachesFindings King and Wadhwani (1990) Lee and Kim (1993) The correlation approachThe cross-market correlations increased significantly among the U.S., the U.K., and Japan after the U.S. stock market collapse in October Cha and Oh (2000)The correlation approachThe links between the developed markets and the Asian emerging markets had significantly intensified after the U.S. stock market collapse in 1987 and during the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997.

6 Forbes and Rigobon (2002) The correlation coefficients are conditional on market volatility. (heteroskedasticity). There was virtually no increase in unconditional correlation coefficients during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, 1994 Mexican devaluation, and 1987 U.S. stock market collapse. Caporale et al. (2005)The conditional variance by the application of both heteroskedasticity and endogeneity The existence of contagion within the stock markets in Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, and Malaysia during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis.

7 Hamao et al. (1990)The GARCH methodThe volatility spillovers of the stock indices from New York to Tokyo, London to Tokyo, and New York to London after the U.S. stock market collapse in Sheng and Tu (2000)The Co-integration methodThe co-integration did not exist in the eleven Asian stock markets and U.S. stock market before the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, but it did during the financial crisis.

8 Co-integration relationship → a common trend. ↗ an upward status (positive impact) asymmetric adjustments ↘ a downward status (negative impact) Li and Lam (1995), Koutmos (1998), and Chiang (2001) What is the impact of the Subprime Mortgage Crisis from the U.S. stock markets on the Asian stock markets during the period of the financial crisis? Exploration of these problems by the asymmetric threshold co- integration model.

9 Nonlinear ESTAR Unit root test by Kapetanios et al.(2003) The KSS nonlinear stationary test is based on detecting the presence of non-stationarity against nonlinear but a globally stationary exponential smooth transition autoregressive model (ESTAR) process: Methodologies Kapetanios et al. (2003) follow Luukkonen et al. (1988) to compute a first-order Taylor series approximation to the under the null of by the following auxiliary regression:, and approximate Eqn. (1) Then, the null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis are expressed (non stationarity) against(nonlinear stationarity).

10 Enders and Siklos (2001) Threshold Co-integration Model The Enders and Siklos (2001) technique extended the Engle and Granger (1987) framework to test non-linear co-integration (Enders and Granger, 1998). Enders and Siklos (2001) modifies ε to allow for two types of asymmetric error corrections based on a co-integrating relationship as depicted in OLS.

11 Comparisons of Y i,t and X t-1 ： Y i,t ： The variables of the Asian stock markets on period t. X t-1 ： The variables of the U.S. stock market (S&P 500 index) on period t-1. The study of the co-integration relationships between the current Y i,t data of the six major Asian stock markets with the following X t-1 data of the U.S. stock market. (Eun and Shim, 1989; Liu et al., 1998) Equation (1) ： The long-run equilibrium relationship between the U.S. and China and the six major Asian stock markets (Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, Korea, India).

12 ｛ ｛ ： threshold values TAR Model M-TAR Model, such that:is the Heaviside indicator function, where Next, the residuals ε, are used in:

13 The threshold value is endogenously determined by using the Chan ’ s (1993) grid search method to find the consistent estimate of the threshold. This method arranges the values, in an ascending order and excludes the smallest and largest 15 percent, and the consistent estimate of the threshold is the parameter that yields the smallest residual sum squares (RSS) over the remaining 70 percent. We test the null hypothesis of no co-integration relationship by (5), and test the null hypothesis of symmetric adjustment by (6)

14 Data This study chose the S&P500 index to represent the U.S. stock markets and the SSE Composite index to represent the China stock markets. The other Asian stock markets include Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, Korea and India, and all observations are taken logarithm, and we only kept the data of synchronized trading days in all stock markets. (Hamao et al., 1990) The entire sample period ： 2004/1/2 to 2010/3/31. The cutting point ： March 13, 2007 (the time when the Subprime Mortgage Crisis of the New Century Financial Corp took place. Gorton, 2008) The period of “ pre Subprime Mortgage Crisis ” ： 2004/1/2 to 2007/3/13. The period of “ during the Subprime Mortgage Crisis ” ： 2007/3/14 to 2010/3/31.

15 Empirical Results Entire periodPre-subprime mortgage crisisDuring subprime mortgage crisis Correlation Coefficient of Return Correlation Coefficient of Volatility of Return ** ** Engle-Granger Co-integration Ender-Siklos Threshold Co-integration Relationships between the U.S. and China Notes: 1. ** denote significance at the 5% significance levels, respectively. 2. The critical values of the Engle-Granger Co-integration are taken from Engle and Yoo (1987). 3. The lag-length of difference Ks selected by minimizing AIC;is the estimated threshold value. denote the F-statistics for the null hypothesis of no co-integration and symmetric adjustment. Critical values are taken from 4. and Enders and Siklos (2001).

16 Entire periodPre-subprime mortgage crisisDuring subprime mortgage crisis Panel A (U.S.) aiwan ** **0.3025** Hong Kong ** **0.3946** Singapore ** *0.4165** Japan ** *0.3217** Korea ** **0.3753** India ** *0.4037** Panel B (China) Taiwan ** ** Hong Kong ** *0.4953** Singapore ** *0.3715** Japan ** *0.3393** Korea ** ** India ** ** Results of Correlation Coefficient of Return Notes: * and ** denote significance at the 10% and 5% significance levels, respectively.

17 Entire periodPre-subprime mortgage crisisDuring subprime mortgage crisis Panel A (U.S.) Taiwan *** ** *** Hong Kong *** ** *** Singapore *** ** *** Japan *** ** *** Korea *** ** *** India ** ** ** Panel B (China) Taiwan ** ** Hong Kong ** ** ** Singapore ** ** ** Japan ** ** Korea ** ** India ** ** ** Notes: 1. The volatility of return is measured by the conditional variance of return from the ARMA(p,q)-GARCH(p,q) model; the numbers in the parentheses are the appropriate lag-lengths selected by minimizing AIC. 2. ** and *** denote significance at the 5% and 1% significance levels, respectively. Results of Correlation Coefficient of Volatility of Return

18 U.S. The Volatility of Return in 8 Stock Markets

19 t Statistics on LevelFirst difference U.S (2) (1)*** Taiwan (1) (2)*** Hong Kong (0) (0)*** Singapore (2) (1)*** Japan (1) (1)*** Korea (0) (2)*** India (1) (2)*** China (3) (3)*** Results of the Nonlinear Unit Root Test – KSS Test Notes: 1. The numbers in the parentheses are the appropriate lag-lengths selected by minimize AIC. 2. The simulated critical value for different Ks were tabulated in Kapetanios et al. (2003). 3. *** denote significance at the 1% significance level, respectively.

20 Entire periodPre-subprime mortgage crisisDuring subprime mortgage crisis Engle-Granger ADF Statistic Panel A (U.S.) Taiwan Hong Kong ** Singapore Japan Korea India Panel B (China) Taiwan Hong Kong Singapore Japan Korea * India Results of the Engle-Granger Test for Co-integration Notes: * and ** denote significance at the 10% and 5% significance levels, respectively.

21 Entire periodPre-subprime mortgage crisisDuring subprime mortgage crisis Panel A (U.S.) Taiwan *** 3.310* *** *** 6.267*** Hong Kong *** 3.837** *** *** 8.633*** Singapore *** *** *** *** Japan *** 3.053* *** 2.756* *** 7.262*** Korea *** 7.987*** *** *** 8.981*** India *** 2.792* *** *** 6.262*** Panel B (China) Taiwan ** 4.818** Hong Kong *** 5.154** *** 5.887** Singapore *** *** 5.643** Japan ** *** 7.792*** Korea *** 4.871** *** 6.746*** India 6.850** *** 4.237** Results of the Ender-Siklos Test for Threshold Co-integration Notes: *, ** and *** denote significance at the 10%, 5% and 1% significance levels, respectively.

22 Conclusions There are four major findings in this research: First, there are significant increases in correlation coefficients of return between the U.S. and Asian markets and between China and the Asian markets during the financial crisis. Secondly, there are significant increases in correlation coefficients of volatility of return between the U.S. and Asian markets and between China and the Asian markets during the crisis. (volatility spillovers). Third, there are asymmetric co-integration relationships between the U.S. and Asian markets (except the China market) around the crisis, and the asymmetry in these co-integration relationships has significantly increased during the crisis. China has no co-integration relationship with the Asian markets before the crisis, but, during the crisis, the asymmetric co-integration relationship between China and the Asian markets appeared.

23 The stock market co-movement between China and the Asian stock markets increased during the financial crisis. Based on the empirical results, this shows China has had more influence on the Asian markets recently. Finally, the subprime mortgage crisis has weakened the effect of international portfolio diversification. But investors can somewhat diversify risks by investing in U.S. and China simultaneously.

24 The End Thank you for your attention