CRFS November 20, 2014. JUL-SEP PRECIPITATION Good monsoon - except San Juan… September 2014 not quite as wet as 2013, but close! Precipitation above.

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Presentation transcript:

CRFS November 20, 2014

JUL-SEP PRECIPITATION Good monsoon - except San Juan… September 2014 not quite as wet as 2013, but close! Precipitation above Powell: ~170% of average ~200+%

OCT-NOV PRECIPITATION SNOTEL Current Month to Date Precipitation % of Average November 19, 2014

FALL FLOWS October Regulated Flows

SOIL MOISTURE CBRFC Model Soil Moisture November 1, 2013 CBRFC Model Soil Moisture November 15, 2014 Similar or better than last year Worse than last year

CURRENT SWE SNOTEL Current Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) % of Median November 19, 2014

SHORT TERM FORECASTS UPDATE

ENSO CONDITIONS ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch ENSO-neutral conditions continue. Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean. There is a 58% chance of El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere winter, which is favored to last into the Northern Hemisphere spring CPC Summary 11/17/2014 Most models favor El Niño (greater than or equal to +0.5ºC) to develop during October- December 2014 and persist through Northern Hemisphere spring The chance of El Niño is 58% during the Northern Hemisphere winter and decreases into spring/summer 2015.

CLIMATE FORECASTS UPDATE???

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS UPDATE???

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS UPDATE???

Apr-Jul 2014 Daily ESP 705 kaf 81%

Apr-Jul 2014 Daily ESP 595 kaf 88% 484 kaf 194 kaf Historical Observed 10%/90% distribution skewed to higher end

Apr-Jul 2014 Daily ESP 555 kaf 69%

Apr-Jul 2014 Daily ESP 5932 kaf 83%