Political campaigns What’s it all about?

What are elections for? To determine who will hold governmental positions – Not all positions To maintain public control over the government – Throw the rascals out To re-legitimize the system and the regime – Government claim to consent of the governed – Elections as rituals

What are campaigns for? To inform the public of what the government has been doing and to critique the performance of officials To stir up excitement for the system, and for politics in general To inform officials of the preferences of the electorate and to set priorities for action – Agenda setting

Do elections do what they are supposed to do? Many examples of politicians who have been found guilty of crimes were returned to office. Candidates who are in other ways unfit are returned to office – Candidates who are at death’s door, etc.

Do elections do what they are supposed to? Incumbency determines – Since World War II, 92% of incumbents who ran for reelection were successful. (Wikipedia) However, high-quality challengers are not always available Incumbents with serious problems may not run again

Advantages incumbent Congresspersons hold Experience – an incumbent by definition is experienced. He or she has already won at least one election. Franking – congressional privilege that allows congresspersons to send out mail to their constituents for free. It’s in the Constitution. Free Media – local media like covering congressman. Furthermore, they can go on national TV shows, they have an office in Washington that can create media releases.

Money – congressmen bring federal spending into their local areas to benefit the district (which thus increases goodwill in the district for them). Casework – when individual constituents have a problem and call their congressman. It’s an easy, non-controversial way of making voters happy. People helped (no matter what party) will be more likely to vote for him and they will tell their friends. Campaign finance – officeholders have a big advantage over challengers because they are already in congress with a vote over legislation and thus interest groups will attempt to influence them (whatever their party). – Wikipedia

Election outcomes There are at least some scholars that argue that the outcome of elections does not seem to reflect public opinion – Candidates are elected that appear to oppose majority opinion on a wide range of topics – Decisions based on emotion and/or peripheral issues rather than rational self-interest, which is supposed to rule

Do campaigns do what they are supposed to do? Voters rarely know very much about most of the candidates on the ballot – Name recognition may determine winners Even when they are acquainted with candidates voters often do not know much about those seeking office – Few can actually identify candidate background, issue positions, etc. False beliefs common – Assume policy agreement where none exists

Information gain A great deal of research indicates that members of the electorate gain only limited information about candidates during the campaign – (Leshner, Benoit and Hansen) Much of what the public learns is questionable, inaccurate or biased Focus is often on peripheral cues rather than issues – Physical attractiveness, speaking tone, height

Information gain Biased reception – The same information gained about a favored candidate and a disfavored candidate would be interpreted differently

Vote intention Traditionally, there has been little change in vote intent during the campaign – Most people’s votes can be predicted from demographic information prior to the beginning of the campaign

Content of campaign communications Distortion, untruth Images and symbolism Propaganda techniques Hoopla How could anyone make an intelligent decision based on all this junk?

Politics as marketing The candidate is the ‘product’ – What are the ‘attributes’ of the candidate? A one-day ‘sale’ – Date is predetermined The monetary ‘price’ is zero Far more competitive/antagonistic environ than most ‘products’

Marketing strategy and political campaigns Goal is to win Use methods developed for marketing branded products Historical transition from product orientation to sales orientation to marketing orientation

Marketing strategy Image/positioning – Limited by prior performance of candidate Market research – Polling Targeting – “Two campaigns” – Likely voters – Persuadable groups Communication channels – Interpersonal – Mediated – New media

Message – “Product attributes” – Critique of opposition (far more prevalent in political campaigns) Fundraising PR – ‘Earned media’ – Press relations Development of organization – Pre-existing organization in traditional marketing campaigns GOTV

Image

Targeting Primaries v. general election Voters v. non-voters – Talking to those who vote – Convincing those who are supportive to go to the polls Demographics Persuasibility Accessibility Popular vote v. electoral college – Gore won popular vote – Plouffe analysis

Communication channels Interpersonal – Face-to-face Too time-consuming for major elected office Still the main means for local – Public meetings – Speeches at gatherings – Debates

Media – TV ads still most significant Lion’s share of campaign budgets in higher office – Radio important for targeting Latino – Newspapers mainly for elite

New media – Growing importance – Innovative area – Microtargeting

Message Issue “Character” Positive v. negative tone Issues of distortion, dishonesty

Fundraising Classic model – PACs – Large donors, dinners, etc. – Large portion of candidate’s time personally soliciting donations Concern over undue influence New model – Obama Vast numbers of small donors/Internet Public funding (McCain/Feingold) – Limits on spending Other groups – 527 groups

PR Media relations are tremendously important – Spin Interaction with candidate Supporters providing press with background, etc. On-air pundits Non-news media

Development of organization Obama v. Clinton – Mass volunteer organizations – Early preparation – Online organizing

GOTV Phone reminders Transporting likely supporters to the polls Registering potential voters Tracking supporters