Recommendation: Buy Ian Strgar and Daniel Greenfield March 5 th, 2013
Background ›Founded in 1997 as reseller of telecom services –SLC, formerly known as UNC inc, name change in ‘09 ›Launch SaaS deployment based call center software platform in Revenue model transition
Segments ›Telecommunications: Qwest, Verizon, Global Crossing –Typically 1-3 year contracts ›Software: Delivery/Support of SaaS based call center software –Typically last 1-2 years, billed monthly –InContact sales team: 37 sales reps, up 37% from 11Q4
Key Reseller Agreements ›Siemens –NOT Exclusive, minimum purchase agreements: $4.5, $7, $5 million in 2012, 2013, and first 7 seven months of 2014 ›Verizon Wireless –North America market share, not yet ½ way through Verizon’s customer base –12Q4 – Booked largest contract to date through Verizon reseller agreement ›Main Benefit: sales team behind InContact platform
Call Center Industry Background ›Private Branch Exchange (PBX): A switchboard (originally), internal telephone system where larger lines are broken down in multiple extensions –Contrast against common carrier operated lines – much more costly
Wave of the Future: Hosted PBXs ›Increasing internet speeds allow for hosted PBX systems –Calls begin and end at hosting vendor’s data center ›Decentralization, cost pressure
Primary Software Offerings ›Automatic Call Distributing (ACD) –Handles inbound/outbound calls as efficiently as possible ›Dialer –Number manipulation: preview (information), power (agents available), predictive (agents not available), auto (pre-recorded) ›Interactive Voice Response (IVR) –I.e. pre-recorded help lines for large volumes ›Workforce Optimization (WFO) –Planning, scheduling, forecasting workforce needs
Competition ›On-Premise –Aspect, Avaya, Cisco: large legacy product vendors hold largest market shares ›Cloud Competitors: –Five9, Interactive Intelligence: less mature products for SMB ›Development of cloud offerings by large software vendors is perhaps InContact’s greatest risk
InContact vs. On-Premise ›Data from Frost & Sullivan
Market Opportunity ›Roughly $8 billion opportunity –Data from Frost & Sullivan, DMG Consulting, and Gartner
Comparable Analysis
Revenue Model ›Software Revenue –New Customer Sales: 3 pieces of data - new customers books, average # of seats, cost per seat ›New Customers in ’12: ›Average # of seats for new customer in ’12: 40 ›Average cost per seat: $1.7k-$2.5k. We took a low end estimate to be conservative ($2k) –Current Customer Sales ›Retained revenue (92%), 6% growth in same store sales of retained customers
Revenue Model Transition
Revenue Model Cont. ›Telecom: healthy growth, but decline as % of revenue
Cost of Revenue ›With cloud transition, COGS declines
Other Notable DCF Considerations ›Selling & Marketing –Guidance: projected to rise to 28-29% ›Research & Development –Guidance: projected to rise to 9-10% ›Depreciation & Amortization –Straight-line, 2-3% growth ›Tax Rate –Compared to CRM, VZ, ININ –Determined reasonable average: %11-18
DCF Price Target
Final Price Target
Questions
Beta sensitivity a potential issue…
Exit Multiple
Exit Multiple Cont…
All Things Considered
From Our Boy, Aswath ›“ When you have a growth company, the discount rate is the least important input into the valuation. It is your revenue growth, margins and cash flows that matter.” -Aswath Damodaran
Recommendation ›In conclusion, we recommend a buy for all portfolios