The future of English Implications for BNCs Ricardo Romero Oxford University Press

The plan for today Demographic, political, economic and language trends in the world Demographic, political, economic and language trends in the world Implications for Bi-national centers Implications for Bi-national centers The road ahead The road ahead 1

Talking about the future… 1

David Crystal “World Englishes)” David Graddol “The future of English” David Graddol “English Next”

Analysis Political changes in the world Political changes in the world Demography Demography World population World population Information technology Information technology Economy Economy Education and mobility Education and mobility 1

Age and needs 1

Widening of student age and need Over the next decade there will be a complex and changing mix of learner needs. More children will register to learn English Over the next decade there will be a complex and changing mix of learner needs. More children will register to learn English

Changing number of learners 1

The rise and fall of learners A massive increase in the number of people learning English has already begun, and is likely to reach a peak of around 2 billion in the next years. Numbers of learners will then decline.

People learning English

Non-native speakers 1

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Rising competition Non-native speaker providers of ELT services will create major competition to the UK and the US (Reaction to certification and standardization) Non-native speaker providers of ELT services will create major competition to the UK and the US (Reaction to certification and standardization)

Trends in international students 1

Irreversible trend in international students The recent decline in international students studying in the main English speaking countries is unlikely to reverse. The recent decline in international students studying in the main English speaking countries is unlikely to reverse.

Trends in international higher education (Marguerite J. Dennis, 2007) International higher education, a $300 billion industry The United States is attracting a declining share of foreign students market share of 36.7% 1995 market share of 30% 2004 market share of 25% 2007 market share of 22%. 1

The net contribution to the U.S. economy by foreign students and their families for is almost 13.5 billion dollars. The net contribution to the U.S. economy by foreign students and their families for is almost 13.5 billion dollars. Although the decline in international student enrollment in the United States was exacerbated by the events of September 11, 2001, the decline began before then. Although the decline in international student enrollment in the United States was exacerbated by the events of September 11, 2001, the decline began before then. 1

Monolingual and Native Speakers 1

The doom of monolingualism Monolingual English speakers face a bleak economic future and the barriers preventing them from learning other languages are rising rapidly. Monolingual English speakers face a bleak economic future and the barriers preventing them from learning other languages are rising rapidly.

Irrelevance of native speakers Native-speaker norms are becoming less relevant as English becomes a component of basic education in many countries. Native-speaker norms are becoming less relevant as English becomes a component of basic education in many countries.

Growth of languages on the internet The dominance of English on the internet is declining. Other languages, including lesser- used languages, are now proliferating. The dominance of English on the internet is declining. Other languages, including lesser- used languages, are now proliferating.

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The economic advantage is ebbing away The competitive advantage which English has historically provided its acquirers (personally, organizationally, and nationally) will ebb away as English becomes a near- universal basic skill. The need to maintain the advantage by moving beyond English will be felt more acutely. The competitive advantage which English has historically provided its acquirers (personally, organizationally, and nationally) will ebb away as English becomes a near- universal basic skill. The need to maintain the advantage by moving beyond English will be felt more acutely.

Retraining needed for English specialists Specialist English teachers will need to acquire additional skills as English is less often taught as a subject on its own. Specialist English teachers will need to acquire additional skills as English is less often taught as a subject on its own. CLIL CLIL Global issues Global issues Psychology Psychology other other

The end of English as a Foreign Language

Implications for BNCs Certification and accreditation Certification and accreditation Re-directing student orientation for studies abroad Re-directing student orientation for studies abroad Diversification in exam administration Diversification in exam administration Young learners Young learners General English wider scope General English wider scope Special English exam Special English exam More resources for children’s programs More resources for children’s programs Changing paradigms for adult programs Changing paradigms for adult programs

Implications for BNCs Redefining teacher’s profiles Redefining teacher’s profiles Retraining teachers (CLIL) Retraining teachers (CLIL) International certification for teachers International certification for teachers A bigger competition for quality teachers A bigger competition for quality teachers Strategic alliances with universities for teacher training opportunities Strategic alliances with universities for teacher training opportunities Diversification in our programs Diversification in our programs The need to be recognized as binational institutions of technical assistance The need to be recognized as binational institutions of technical assistance

Thank you!