DISASTER SCENARIOS A PRIMER OF KNOWLEDGE THAT CAN MULTIPLY AND SPILL OVER FOR THE BENEFIT OF MILLIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

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DISASTER SCENARIOS A PRIMER OF KNOWLEDGE THAT CAN MULTIPLY AND SPILL OVER FOR THE BENEFIT OF MILLIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

DISASTER SCENARIOS FOR SEVERE WINDSTORMS HURRICANES, TYPHOONS, AND CYCLONES

SEVERE WINDSTORMS: HURRICANES In the Atlantic, Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Eastern Pacific areas cyclonic tropical storms with well-formed central “eyes” and with wind speeds above 74 mph are referred to as HURRICANES.

SEVERE WINDSTORMS: TYPHOONS The exact same phenomenon in the Western Pacific Ocean region is called a TYPHOON.

Physics Of A Typhoon

SEVERE WINDSTORMS: CYCLONES The exact same phenomenon in the Indian Ocean region is called a CYCLONE.

SEVERE WINDSTORMS: TYPHOONS OR CYCLONES People in South East Asia occasionally refer to severe windstorms as either TYPHOONS or CYCLONES.

SEVERE WINDSTORMS: NOR’EASTERS People on the USA’s and Canada’s eastern seaboard and Northern Europe occasionally experience severe windstorms known as NOR’EASTERS.

DEVELOPING A REALISTIC DISASTER SCENARIO FOR A COMMUNITY FACING SEVERE WINDSTORMS

POLICY ADOPTION RISK ASSESSMENT VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY EXPOSUREEXPOSURE EVENTEVENT POLICY ASSESSMENT COSTCOST BENEFITBENEFIT CONSEQUENCESCONSEQUENCES A POLICY FRAMEWORK SEVERE WIND- STORMS EXPECTED LOSS

THE KEYS: 1) KNOW YOUR REGION’S METEOROLOGICAL HISTORY, 2) KNOW YOUR COMMUNITY

1325 HURRICANE PATHS: EACH HURRICANE HAS PREDICTABLE PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS THAT CAN BE USED TO DEVELOP DISASTER SCENARIOS WITHIN A REALISTIC POLICY FRAMEWORK.

HURRICANE BILL’S PATH: AUGUST 12-24, 2009 THE PATH IS A STARTING POINT FOR ANY DISASTER SCENARIO FOR HURRICANES OR TYPHOONS.

TYPHOON MORAKOT’S PATH: AUGUST 3-10, 2009 THE STATE- OF- PREPAREDNESS OF COMMUN- ITIES LOCATED IN THE LAND- FALL AREA DEFINES THE POSSIBILITY OF DISASTER.

FACTORS THAT ENHANCE DESTRUCTIVENESS Very low pressure in the “eye” (increases the height of storm surge and likelihood that wind will lift roofs off buildings and pop out windows after landfall)

FACTORS THAT ENHANCE DESTRUCTIVENESS Low vertical wind shear along the path of the storm (maintains storm’s cohesiveness and rotation)

FACTORS THAT ENHANCE DESTRUCTIVENESS A long path passing through warm water and a slow rate of travel (increases the likelihood that the storm will grow in strength and become a RAINMAKER after landfall)

FACTORS THAT ENHANCE DESTRUCTIVENESS Wind field and rain bands extending 500 km or more from the “eye” (increases area of potential wind damage, flooding, landslides, and need for evacuation).

HURRICANE DEAN: PREPARING FOR EVACUATION, AUGUST 19, 2007

FACTORS THAT ENHANCE DESTRUCTIVENESS Landfall in rain-saturated areas having steep slopes (increases likelihood of landslides (mudflows))

TYPHOON MORAKOT: TAIWAN

FACTORS THAT ENHANCE DESTRUCTIVENESS Landfall in populated areas that are unprepared: increases the likelihood of inadequate warning, inadequate evacuation, inadequate wind engineering (e.g., roof systems, “safe rooms”), inadequate safe havens, and inadequate INSURANCE.

RISK ASSESSMENT FOR HURRICANES, TYPHOONS, AND CYCLONES

A RISK ASSESSMENT A risk assessment involves the probabilistic integration of: The hazard (e.g., severe windstorms) and their potential disaster agents (winds, storm surge, etc) that are directly related to the location of the community and the path/size of the storm.

HAZARDSHAZARDS ELEMENTS OF A SCENARIO EXPOSUREEXPOSURE VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATION RISKRISK

HAZARDS OF A SEVERE WINDSTORM (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS) WIND FIELD (COUNTER CLOCKWISE OR CLOCKWISE DIRECTION; CAT 1 (55 mph) TO CAT 5 (155 mph or greater) STORM SURGE RAIN BANDS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION LANDSLIDES (MUDFLOWS) COSTAL EROSION POSSIBILILITY OF TORNADOES

An element’s vulnerability (fragility) is the result of a community’s actions or nature’s actions that change the destructiveness of the storm

MANKIND’S CONTRIBUTION An element’s vulnerability (fragility) is the result of flaws that enter during the planning, siting, design, and construction of a community’s buildings and infrastructure.

TYPHOON MORAKOT: TAIWAN

MANKIND’S ACTIONS THAT INCREASE VULNERABILITY Urban development or industrial development along coastlines prone to severe windstorms that generate storm surges, high-velocity wind, and heavy precipitation.

TYPHOON MORAKOT: CHINA

MANKIND’S ACTIONS THAT INCREASE VULNERABILITY A community locating its dwellings, schools, hospitals, etc., and infrastructure in areas susceptible to storm surge, flooding, and high winds.

TYPHOON MORAKOT: TAIWAN

TYPHOON MORAKOT: CHINA

NATURE’S CONTRIBUTIONS THAT INCREASE VULNERABILITY Warm ocean water (creates the low pressure zone for the “eye” of the storm) Warm ocean water along the path of the storm (keeps the storm energized and increases the wind field strength)

NATURES CONTRIBUTIONS THAT INCREASE VULNERABILITY Low vertical wind shear (keeps the storm organized) Stalled weather systems (prolongs rain fall, especially after landfall).

WIND PENETRATING BUILDING ENVELOPE SEVERE WINDSTORMS UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM FLYING DEBRIS STORM SURGE IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN SITING PROBLEMS FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES CAUSES OF DAMAGE “DISASTER LABORATORIES”

DISASTER RISK REDUCTION

COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY DATA BASES AND INFORMATION SEVERE WINDSTORMS INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION RISK ASSESSMENT RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK SEVERE WINDSTORM RISK REDUCTION PREVENTION/MITIGATION PREPAREDNESS EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION EDUCATIONAL SURGES POLICY OPTIONS Wind profile Storm Hazards: -Wind pressure -Surge -Rain -Flood -Waves -Salt water -Missiles -TornadoesOceanOcean Gradient Wind

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR SEVERE WINDSTORMS REAL TIME FORECASTS OF PATH AND PHYSICAL EFFECTS MEASUREMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., DOPPLER RADAR, WIND SPEEDS; PRESSURE, INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION) REAL TIME FORECASTS OF PATH AND PHYSICAL EFFECTS MEASUREMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., DOPPLER RADAR, WIND SPEEDS; PRESSURE, INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION) METEOROLOGICAL HISTORIES WIND ENGINEERING STORM SURGE MAPS STORM CHASER PLANES/DRONES WARNING SYSTEMS RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING) METEOROLOGICAL HISTORIES WIND ENGINEERING STORM SURGE MAPS STORM CHASER PLANES/DRONES WARNING SYSTEMS RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)

SAVING LIVES WIND ENGINEERING “SAFE ROOMS” EVACUATION

TYPHOON MORAKOT: TAIWAN

POLICY ADOPTION RISK ASSESSMENT VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY EXPOSUREEXPOSURE EVENTEVENT POLICY ASSESSMENT COSTCOST BENEFITBENEFIT CONSEQUENCESCONSEQUENCES TOWARDS DISASTER RISK REDUCTION FOR SEVERE WINDSTORMS SEVERE WIND STORMS EXPECTED LOSS