THE FIVE-YEAR ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND REMARKS ON U.S. STIMULUS PROGRAMS REBALANCING THE ECONOMY SO MORE GROWTH COMES FROM INVESTMENT AND EXPORTS Presented.

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Presentation transcript:

THE FIVE-YEAR ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND REMARKS ON U.S. STIMULUS PROGRAMS REBALANCING THE ECONOMY SO MORE GROWTH COMES FROM INVESTMENT AND EXPORTS Presented by Thomas J. Duesterberg President and Chief North American Steel Trade Committee Executive Officer November 19, 2010 Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI

Consumers Have A Balance Sheet Problem That Only Repaying Debt Will Resolve U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding and Housing Prices Source(s): Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and Federal Housing Administration and Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI

Credit Loosens For Small Commercial Borrowers Credit Conditions for Commercial and Industrial Borrowers Source(s): Federal Reserve Board, Senior Loan Officer Survey, October 2010

Commercial Loan Demand Source(s): Federal Reserve, Senior Loan Officer Survey, October 2010 Even the Loan Demand Picture Appears to Stabilize

Future Consumer Spending Depends on Wage and Job Growth Wage and Job Growth Source(s): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI simulation of the IHS Global Insight model, November, 2010 F=Forecast

Rebalancing Growth With More Investment and Exports and Unwinding Federal Stimulus GDP Expenditure Categories Inflation-Adjusted Percent Change 2010(F)2011(F)2012(F)2013(F)2014(F)2015(F) Gross Domestic Product Total Consumption Durables Nondurables Services Nonresidential Fixed Investment Equipment & Software Information Processing Equip Industrial Equipment Transportation equipment Structures Residential Fixed Investment Exports Imports Federal Government State & Local Government Source: Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI simulation of the IHS Global Insight model, November, 2010 F=Forecast Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI Economic Forecast

The Pace of Recovery Is Expected to Be Below Average Inflation-Adjusted GDP Source(s): U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI simulation of the IHS Global Insight model, November, 2010 F=Forecast

Maximum Fiscal and Monetary Policy Stimulus Now; Exit Strategy to Be Determined Federal Budget and Policy Interest Rate Source(s): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI simulation of the IHS Global Insight model, November, 2010 F=Forecast

Low, but Accelerating, Inflation; High Unemployment; Massive Public Debt; and Moderate Manufacturing Rebound Economic Indicators Percent Change or Level as Specified 2010(F)2011(F)2012(F)2013(F)2014(F)2015(F) Prices (% chg.) Consumer Prices Excl. Food & Energy Producer Prices, Finished Goods Energy ($) Imported Crude Oil ($ per barrel) $76.0$83.0$88.5$91.8$93.8$95.9 Natural Gas Wellhead Price ($ mmbtu) $4.2$4.0$4.5$4.9$5.0$5.4 Other Key Measures Nonfarm Inventory Change (Billion 2005$) $66$52$53$47$54$45 Light Vehicle Sales (Million units) Housing Starts (Million units) Federal Surplus (NIPA, Billion $) -$1,339-$1,132-$904-$691-$714-$725 Current Account Balance (Billion $) -$496-$548-$558-$562-$521-$511 Labor Unemployment Rate (%) Payroll employment (% chg.) Production (% chg.) Manufacturing - SIC Basis Computers & Electronic Products Non-High Tech Manufacturing Source: Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI simulation of the IHS Global Insight model, November, 2010 F=Forecast Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI Economic Forecast

Manufacturing Recovery Complete in First Quarter 2013; High Tech Recovers in Fourth Quarter 2010, Traditional Manufacturing in Second Quarter 2014 Manufacturing Industrial Production Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI simulation of the IHS Global Insight model, November, 2010 F=Forecast

Moderate Manufacturing Growth Industry Inflation-Adjusted Percent Change 2010(F)2011(F)2012(F)2013(F)2014(F)2015(F) Manufacturing - SIC Basis Food Textile Mills Textile Product Mills Apparel Wood Products Furniture & Related Products Paper & Products Printing Support Activities Petroleum & Coal Products Chemicals Rubber & Plastics Products Nonmetallic Mineral Products Primary Metals Fabricated Metal Products Machinery Computers & Electronic Products Elec. Eq., Appliances, & Components Aerospace Products & Parts Motor Vehicles & Parts Miscellaneous Non-High Tech Manufacturing Source: Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI simulation of the HIS Global Insight model, November, 2010 F=Forecast Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI Manufacturing Production Forecast