Stephen P. Mattingly Associate Professor Department of Civil Engineering University of Texas at Arlington Supporting Researchers: Katie Larsen, UT - Austin Antonio Massidda, Univ. of Vanderbilt Sunil Madanu, UTA September 3, 2014

What is High Speed Rail? Current Status of High Speed Rail in Texas Texas vs. Other Established Systems A Unique Opportunity Issues to Resolve/Address What Does High Speed Rail Really Mean for Texas? High Speed Rail Viability in Texas S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda Overview

Revisiting High Speed Railways in the US A. Massidda S. Mattingly Background U.S. DOT: “Rail service that is time-competitive with air and/or auto for travel markets in the approximate range of 100 to 500 miles.” European Union: Minimum Operating Speeds 120 mph – Existing Rail Lines 160 mph – New HSRs Definition of High Speed Rail (HSR): HSR Lines Scenarios High Speed Rail Viability in Texas S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda

Revisiting High Speed Railways in the US A. Massidda S. Mattingly HSR in Japan Early efforts : 1964 Japan: HSR line Toyko to Shin-Osaka High Speed Rail Viability in Texas S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda

Revisiting High Speed Railways in the US A. Massidda S. Mattingly HSR in Europe Early efforts : 1977 Italy: HSR line Rome – Florence High Speed Train (HST) “Pendolino” operated at speeds up to 155 mph

Revisiting High Speed Railways in the US A. Massidda S. Mattingly HSR in Europe 1981 France – HSR line Paris – Lyon HST Train à Grand Vitesse (TGV) operated at speeds up to 160 mph High Speed Rail Viability in Texas S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda

Intended for regional (intercity trips) –Not intra-region (cannot maintain maximum speed for long periods before needing to brake) –Typically, mile trips –Example: Houston – Atlanta, ~ 790 miles, 2 hours by air Over 4 hours at maximum HSR speed with no stops May be subsidized or funded by the government Passengers pay by the person-trip (fare) rather than vehicle Version of public transport even if operated by private firm or concession –Similar to air –Dissimilar to auto Outcome: HSR competes with air in limited niche –Limited SOV vehicles –Minimum fare Washington DC to Philadelphia, $111 High Speed Rail Viability in Texas S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda What Role Does High Speed Rail Serve?

Revisiting High Speed Railways in the US A. Massidda S. Mattingly HSR in USA: The Northeast Corridor 2000 USA – The Northeast Corridor Acela Express HST Maximum Operating Speed 150 mph Average Operating Speed 72 – 125 mph HSR length 450 miles High Speed Rail Viability in Texas S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda

Revisiting High Speed Railways in the US A. Massidda S. Mattingly HSR in USA: The Northeast Corridor The impact of the Acela Express on airlines Air/HSR Market Share Analysis Route Distance (miles) Air/HSR market share for Acela Express Acela Express Travel time (h:min) NYC – Washington DC23065%2:45 NYC – Boston22552%3:30 Boston – Philadelphia32018%4:56 High Speed Rail Viability in Texas S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda

Revisiting High Speed Railways in the US A. Massidda S. Mattingly HSR in USA – The Future The Proposed HSR Lines in the USA South Central, San Antonio – DFW – Tulsa/Little Rock Gulf Coast: Houston – New Orleans – Southeast (Atlanta & eastern seaboard) California Corridors, Florida: Tampa – Orlando – Miami, Northeast Region, Chicago Hub: Detroit – Chicago, Kansas City – St. Louis – Chicago Southeast, Pacific Northwest High Speed Rail Viability in Texas S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda

Many Competing Voices –Texas High Speed Rail Corporation (Texas T- bone) –Texas Oklahoma Passenger Rail Study (TOPRS) Texas Central Railway (Houston to Dallas line) Regional Issues: –NCTCOG –Commission for High-Speed Rail in the Dallas/Fort Worth Region –Tarrant vs. Dallas County High Speed Rail Viability in Texas S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda HSR in Texas: Current Status

Texas Central Railway (Houston to Dallas line) –FRA and TxDOT Lead agencies for EIS –Downtown Dallas station –No public money –Subsidiary of Japan Central Railway Regional Issues: –HSR in Tarrant County –Station in Arlington near entertainment district –Coordination and consideration of complete transportation system –How to fund? High Speed Rail Viability in Texas S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda HSR in Texas: Current Status

High Speed Rail Viability in Texas S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda HSR in Texas: Current Status Existing HSR Systems’ Experience: HSR Stations Near Downtown Access: Transportation –Bus –Rail (urban and commuter) Access: Activities(dense urban cores) –Businesses (high value business in core) –Entertainment (most in core) –Urban housing (high value property)

High Speed Rail Viability in Texas S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda HSR in Texas: Current Status Texas/American Experience Access: Transportation –Bus –Rail (urban and commuter) –Automobile Access: Activities(dispersed) –Businesses (multiple centers) –Entertainment –Housing (suburban)

High Speed Rail Viability in Texas S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda HSR in Texas: Current Status Note: Travel Times do not include station dwell times Any origin to destination service does not have intermediate stops

Revisiting High Speed Railways in the US A. Massidda S. Mattingly HSR in Europe – Case Study: The TGV Today, France has approximately 1,000 miles of HSR lines High Speed Rail Viability in Texas S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda

Revisiting High Speed Railways in the US A. Massidda S. Mattingly HSR in Europe – Case Study: The TGV The impact of the TGV on airlines in France Air/HSR Market Share Analysis Route TGV Market Share Journey Time (hours) Paris-Lyon91%1:55 Paris-Nantes89%2:00 Paris-Bordeaux62%3:00 Lyon-Lille60%3:00 Paris-Marseille60%3:10 Route type TGV Market Share Journey Time ≤ 2 hours90% Journey Time ≥ 2 hours60% Total on domestic routes81% High Speed Rail Viability in Texas S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda

High Speed Rail Viability in Texas S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda HSR in Texas: Potential Ridership Based on international and US(Acela Express) experience –HSIPR can get 80% - 90% of the Air/HSIPR market share when travel time is up to 2 hours –HSIPR can get 50% - 80% of the Air/HSIPR market share when travel time is up to 3.5 hours –As the service is introduced, the HSIPR can expect to capture between 60 and 85 percent of existing airline ridership after five years of operation The ridership becomes sensitive to the location of the station

High Speed Rail Viability in Texas S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda HSR in Texas: Potential Ridership Ridership (Passengers/Year)

High Speed Rail Viability in Texas S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda A Unique Opportunity Access = Economic Opportunity Regional air profitability is limited Rail replaces regional air service and creates economic and development opportunities outside the major urban areas Integrated transportation system

High Speed Rail Viability in Texas S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda A Unique Opportunity European Experience: HSR Stations Near Airports Airlines are offering combined air and rail ticketing Rail passengers have expedited check in to airport terminals HSR Airport to Airport Connections Source: Raileurope.com

High Speed Rail Viability in Texas S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda A Unique Opportunity AIRail Station Frankfurt Airport Terminal 1 AirportAIRail HSR Station

High Speed Rail Viability in Texas S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda A Unique Opportunity Ticketing Benefits –Some airlines like Lufthansa and Air France offer online booking for combined flight and HSR train Access to destinations beyond the arrival airport. Other Benefits: –Replace air trips Lower environmental impact Similar safety –New stations = economic development –Access to smaller urban areas (Waco, College Station, Temple/Belton) Less frequent service Each stop adds dwell time and lost time

Revisiting High Speed Railways in the US A. Massidda S. Mattingly HSR in Texas – The Future The Texas HSR and Higher Speed Rail Network and Airlines: A Cooperative Approach On short-haul routes, the HSR may be a substitute for “feeder” flights operated by regional airlines Cooperation agreements between HSR operator and airlines may produce benefits for: Major Airlines Dismiss less profitable routes, Maintain an extensive regional network HSR Operator Increase ridership and revenues Passengers Relatively convenient service, Cheaper fares for business journeys High Speed Rail Viability in Texas S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda

Revisiting High Speed Railways in the US A. Massidda S. Mattingly HSR in Texas – The Future New Strategies to Establish a Cooperative Approach Between HSRs and Airlines HSR as part of the overall wider transportation network – that includes airports and airlines An integrated HSR – Airlines system would: Improve performance Provide passengers with better service Increase HSR ridership and revenues Reduce expenses or losses for airlines Operating strategies: Code sharing on select HSR routes Potential integration of airlines check-in and baggage handling at HSR stations Airlines operating HSTs to diversify investments High Speed Rail Viability in Texas S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda

High Speed Rail Viability in Texas S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda Challenges Optimal placement of rail stations a challenge –Placement of near other transportation modes provide access –Population catchment –Activity catchment Urban mileage expensive Activities are dispersed Possible land use issues Integration with existing transportation system (i.e. access) No funding for Dallas – Arlington – Fort Worth extension

High Speed Rail Viability in Texas S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda Challenges Profitability –HSR is the most “profitable” type of rail. The TGV high speed rail of France has a 1.3 billion dollar annual profit. (LesEchols.fr, Renaud Honore, 2011) –The AMTRAK Acela Express only operationally “profitable” line 45% profit margin (Brookings Institute, 2013) –Does not include debt so may be lower (Brookings Institute, 2013) –Most HSR is at least capital subsidized Same as other modes Not perceived the same

Texas is different than the East Coast and Europe –Population –Activities HSR not a solution for urban congestion –May compete with new managed lane on I-30 –Managed lane SOV toll vs. fare –May void a concessionaire agreement Continuing rural interstate highway congestion High Speed Rail Viability in Texas S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda What Does HSR Really Mean for Texas?

Economic development opportunities near stations New transportation system challenges near stations to provide an adequate and integrated system Not the “public transit” answer to intercity travel due to high cost A political solution to extending HSR beyond Texas Central Rail initial investment –Public money spent on expensive to construct track –Winners and missed opportunities High Speed Rail Viability in Texas S. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda What Does HSR Really Mean for Texas?