Cars in the Future Energy Policy, Forecasting & Modelling Hannah Daly Sustainable Energy Research Group Environmental Research Institute University College.

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Presentation transcript:

Cars in the Future Energy Policy, Forecasting & Modelling Hannah Daly Sustainable Energy Research Group Environmental Research Institute University College Cork ERI Research Open Day December 15 th, 2010

“Car of the Future”

Summary of Motivations: Climate change & CO 2 Peak oil Security of supply Volatile oil prices EU targets Cars are particularly hard

Energy Modelling Bottom-Up vs Top-Down Simulation Optimisation

Bottom-Up Car Stock Model 1. Disaggregate the fleet 1. Fuel type 2. Age 3. Engine size (cc band) 2. Characteristics of each type of car 3. Econometric drivers: activity and sales 4. Demographic forecasting

1. Disaggregated Car Stock 2008

2. Scrappage Profiles

3. Econometric Drivers Annual Sales & Vkm driven by GNP & fuel price Elasticities derived from historic regression

3. Econometric Drivers

4. Demographic Forecasting

5. Energy Calculation

Scenario Analysis Change parameters to test policies.. –Type of salesEV, new-car efficiency targets –Economy & fuel priceImpact of recession –Scrappage profileScrappage scheme –Activity Modal shift, demand reduction Compare energy, CO 2 to baseline

EV Scenario: 2020 Stock Profile

EV Results

EV Results: Energy & CO 2 Displaced

EV Results: Renewable Energy

Biogas: CNG vehicles 10% CNG vehicle target Lower carbon content Same efficiency as Diesel cars Possibility of renewable biomethane: 7.5%

Result: CNG vs EV

RES-T

Future Direction TIMES model: –What is the cost optimal technology mix to reach targets? Modal shift –What are investment costs and payoffs for public & non-motorised transport? Socio-economic technology modelling: –How does the changing socio-economic profile effect modal and technology choice?

Cars in the Future Energy Policy, Forecasting & Modelling Hannah Daly Sustainable Energy Research Group Environmental Research Institute University College Cork ERI Research Open Day December 15 th, 2010