Introduction to Hazards Concepts and Theory Session 2

Important Concepts Hazards (Natural, Anthropogenic Non-Intentional, Anthropogenic Intentional) Hazards (Natural, Anthropogenic Non-Intentional, Anthropogenic Intentional) Accidents Accidents Emergencies Emergencies Crises Crises Disasters Disasters Catastrophes Catastrophes Calamities Calamities Vulnerability Vulnerability Risk Risk Spatial Aspects Spatial Aspects Temporal Aspects Temporal Aspects Pervasive Events Pervasive Events Short Fuse Events Short Fuse Events

Hazards Embraces a societal threat Embraces a societal threat Natural Natural Anthropogenic Non-Intentional (Technological) Anthropogenic Non-Intentional (Technological) Anthropogenic Intentional Anthropogenic Intentional

Accident An unexpected or undesirable event, especially one causing injury to a small number of individuals and/or modest damage to physical structures Example: Automobile wreck, lightning strike at one house

Emergencies An unexpected event which places life and/or property in danger and requires an immediate response through the use of routine community resources and procedures

Crises Short period of extreme danger Short period of extreme danger Acute emergency Acute emergency

Disasters The situation after the hazardous event occurs which had a immense impact on humans and what they value The situation after the hazardous event occurs which had a immense impact on humans and what they value Large impact on society Large impact on society Is there a threshold that says “this is a disaster?” Is there a threshold that says “this is a disaster?” A hazardous event that significantly disrupts the workings of society A hazardous event that significantly disrupts the workings of society

Disaster Definition An event in which a community undergoes severe danger and incurs, or is threatened to incur, such losses to persons and/or property that the resources available within the community are severely taxed An event in which a community undergoes severe danger and incurs, or is threatened to incur, such losses to persons and/or property that the resources available within the community are severely taxed

Thresholds Sheehan and Hewitt (1969): events leading 100 deaths, 100 injuries, or $1 million in damages Sheehan and Hewitt (1969): events leading 100 deaths, 100 injuries, or $1 million in damages Glickman et al. (1992): 25 fatalities Glickman et al. (1992): 25 fatalities Do you agree with these thresholds? Do you agree with these thresholds?

Catastrophes Arbitrary since levels of impact mean different things to different people in different situations Arbitrary since levels of impact mean different things to different people in different situations Could be 500 deaths or $10 million in damages Could be 500 deaths or $10 million in damages Need to account for scale Need to account for scale

Catastrophe Definition An event in which a society incurs, or is threatened to incur, such losses to persons and/or property that the entire society is affected and extraordinary resources and skills are required, some of which must come from other nations An event in which a society incurs, or is threatened to incur, such losses to persons and/or property that the entire society is affected and extraordinary resources and skills are required, some of which must come from other nations

Scale Catastrophe if every building destroyed by flooding as in Valmeyer, IL in 1993 Catastrophe if every building destroyed by flooding as in Valmeyer, IL in 1993 Globally, insignificant if only 350 homes involved Globally, insignificant if only 350 homes involved Same with $10 million on a global scale, but on a local level, could be devastating to some communities (wealthier communities could cope better) Same with $10 million on a global scale, but on a local level, could be devastating to some communities (wealthier communities could cope better)

Calamity A massive or extreme catastrophic disaster that extends over time and space A massive or extreme catastrophic disaster that extends over time and space

Vulnerability Combination of risk and response Combination of risk and response Lack of ability to respond or lack of response can increase vulnerability Lack of ability to respond or lack of response can increase vulnerability Well-thought out plans aiding all segments of society can reduce vulnerability Well-thought out plans aiding all segments of society can reduce vulnerability Tobin and Montz, (1997) Tobin and Montz, (1997)

Additional Vulnerability Differential susceptibility of ecosystems, households, or social groups to losses Differential susceptibility of ecosystems, households, or social groups to losses Susceptibility is a function of three dimensions: exposure, resistance, and resilience Susceptibility is a function of three dimensions: exposure, resistance, and resilience Resistance and resilience are referred to as coping abilities Resistance and resilience are referred to as coping abilities Dow (1999) Dow (1999)

Exposure Degree of risk of an event experience in everyday life Degree of risk of an event experience in everyday life From probability of a hazard to actual occurrences of events of all sizes From probability of a hazard to actual occurrences of events of all sizes Hurricane threat for Florida Hurricane threat for Florida

Resistance Ability to withstand the impacts and continue to function Ability to withstand the impacts and continue to function Florida Florida

Resilience Ability to recover, ranging in degree from simply achieving stability at any level of functioning to recovering the full range of resources and positive momentum that existed prior to the event Ability to recover, ranging in degree from simply achieving stability at any level of functioning to recovering the full range of resources and positive momentum that existed prior to the event Hurricanes Charley and Ivan Hurricanes Charley and Ivan

Even more Vulnerability Involves a combination of factors that determines the degree to which someone’s life and livelihood is put at risk by a discrete or identifiable event in nature or society Involves a combination of factors that determines the degree to which someone’s life and livelihood is put at risk by a discrete or identifiable event in nature or society Difficult to reconstruct your livelihood after a disaster Difficult to reconstruct your livelihood after a disaster You are then more vulnerable to subsequent hazardous events You are then more vulnerable to subsequent hazardous events Blaikie et al. (1994) Blaikie et al. (1994)

Risk Hewitt’s Ecological Perspective: physical conditions or processes known as Hazardousness of a Place Hewitt’s Ecological Perspective: physical conditions or processes known as Hazardousness of a Place Location near volcano, fault, coast, or other physical feature Location near volcano, fault, coast, or other physical feature Probability of an adverse effect Probability of an adverse effect Can be one component of hazards but also a combination of issues (action, preparation, recovery) Can be one component of hazards but also a combination of issues (action, preparation, recovery)

More Risk Probability of an adverse effect Probability of an adverse effect Risk can be one component of hazards but also very complex combination of issues Risk can be one component of hazards but also very complex combination of issues Can include a choice of action and an outcome, which may include a probability of occurrence and a magnitude Can include a choice of action and an outcome, which may include a probability of occurrence and a magnitude Tobin and Montz (1997) Tobin and Montz (1997)

Additional Risk Mark Monmonier: Probability of realizing a threat of a hazard (to life or property) Mark Monmonier: Probability of realizing a threat of a hazard (to life or property) Risk= probability of occurrence x vulnerability Risk= probability of occurrence x vulnerability Total Risk: expected number of lives lost, injured, damage to property, or loss of economic activity or environment Total Risk: expected number of lives lost, injured, damage to property, or loss of economic activity or environment

Relative Risk Geographic location can help determine if a specific event is a hazard Geographic location can help determine if a specific event is a hazard 6” of snow in Buffalo is not a big problem, but 1/2” in Washington, D.C. shut down the city 6” of snow in Buffalo is not a big problem, but 1/2” in Washington, D.C. shut down the city Freezing temperatures in Ohio versus Florida and California Freezing temperatures in Ohio versus Florida and California

Spatial Aspects Not all hazards occur in all parts of the Earth Not all hazards occur in all parts of the Earth Physical parameters help determine risk Physical parameters help determine risk How many blizzards at tropical locations at sea level? How many blizzards at tropical locations at sea level? How many hurricanes in Minnesota? How many hurricanes in Minnesota?

Areal Extent Also relative Also relative Some hazards are diffuse and extend over thousands of square miles and impact relatively few people Some hazards are diffuse and extend over thousands of square miles and impact relatively few people 1994 drought in Australia was serious for agricultural interests but not the general population 1994 drought in Australia was serious for agricultural interests but not the general population 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake in San Francisco or Flash Flood in Houston 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake in San Francisco or Flash Flood in Houston

Temporal Aspects Timing of events can affect the outcome of hazards Timing of events can affect the outcome of hazards Northridge, CA earthquake in 1994, occurred around 4:30 am with total fatalities of 57 Northridge, CA earthquake in 1994, occurred around 4:30 am with total fatalities of 57 What could have happened 3-4 hours later? What could have happened 3-4 hours later?

Timing? Flooding may benefit farmers by increasing soil moisture and fertile soil Flooding may benefit farmers by increasing soil moisture and fertile soil What happens when the crops are already growing? What happens when the crops are already growing?

Time Scale Some hazards described in relation to rate of the process or warning time Some hazards described in relation to rate of the process or warning time Short Fuse Events Short Fuse Events Pervasive Events Pervasive Events

Pervasive Events Creeping or pervasive hazards have no definite beginning or end which makes response more difficult Creeping or pervasive hazards have no definite beginning or end which makes response more difficult Drought, heat waves, cold spells Drought, heat waves, cold spells

Short Fuse Events Tornadoes, earthquakes, flash flooding, and windstorms Tornadoes, earthquakes, flash flooding, and windstorms How much time for warnings? How much time for warnings?