1 Evaluation of the adoption and impact of new varieties of sesame and groundnuts in Tanzania Deogratias Lwezaura

2 Introduction The project was supported by Japanese Counterpart Fund in two regions (Mtwara and Lindi) in two districts each (2006)– for two years. Community-based seed multiplication and contracting approach were used. Improved sesame and groundnut varieties were introduced to farmers.

3 Objectives of the study The main focus of the study was to investigate the level and extent of adoption of the introduced new technologies and their impacts to the beneficiaries

4 Methodology Sampling: Purposive and stratified sampling methods were used. Involved 2 districts in Mtwara and 2 in districts In each district; 6 villages were selected of which, two were intervention village, other two near village (5km away from intervention village), the rest two were far villages (10km from intervention village). 24 villages were covered. Ten farmers per village were expected to be interviewed making a total of 240 respondents. Only y 223 farmers were interviewed. Out of these respondents there were 77 from intervention, 74 from near and 72 from far villages.

5 Data analysis - Multivariate non linear regression 1.Multivariate non linear regression To determine determinants of adoption –Adoption analysis (logistic regression) –Where denoted as estimated coefficients; denoted as independent variables and denoted as probability of event (1, 0).

6 Data analysis - Multivariate non linear regression 2.Determinants of adoption intensity –Tobit regression model was used to estimate determinants of adoption intensity. –, if RHS > 0, and otherwise –Where, is the latent variable, is a (k x 1) vector of unknown parameters, is a (k x 1) vector of known constant and are residuals that are independently and normally distributed.

7 Data analysis - Estimation of impact Analysis of the determinants of adoption was followed by estimation of the impact outcomes of adoption of improved varieties – i.e., treating adoption as an exogenous variable (in order to find the reverse causal relationship). The adoption and impacts on smallholder farmers were tested with a treatment effects model known as Instrumental Variable (IV) method,

8 Estimation of impact - ctned Equation used to estimates mean impact indicators for adopters of improved crop varieties - Instrument variables model : Equation estimating mean impact indicators for non-adopters.

9 Results and discussion 5 out of 19 explanatory variables tested were significant in explaining the adoption of the improved crop varieties: –Nachingwea district that represented specific agroecological zone, – intervention village type, – age of household head, –livestock ownership and –number of chicken owned CAIROTable 1.doc.CAIROTable 1.doc

10 Estimated impact of improved varieties on productivity The impact equation was estimated using the actual observations for adoption of improved varieties, as well as the saved residuals from logit regression or adoption equation. The results showed that the average expected income obtained by adopters was TSh 74, more than that obtained by non-adopters but not significantly differentCAIROTable 2.doc.CAIROTable 2.doc

11 Lessons learnt The seed supply and distribution model tested in the project need to be up-scaled and institutionalized Project effect can be measured without using before and after and control method. Engaging communities in seed multiplication will bring quick-win results.

12 “SHUKRAN”