REIA November 2011 Institutional Investment Outlook 1.

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Presentation transcript:

REIA November 2011 Institutional Investment Outlook 1

NCREIF Overview Current Quarter Index Composition 2 NPI NPI Leveraged Props NFI-ODCEFarmlandTimberland Contributors Properties / Funds 6,4893, Market Value ($ Billions) Inception Data 1978 Q Q Q Q Q1 Sold Properties Leverage Unlevered55%26%Unlevered 2011 Q3 Total Return 3.3%5.6%3.5%2.0%-0.4% 1 Year Return 16.1%31.9%18.3%12.1%0.3%

NPI and ODCE vs. Other Asset Classes Third Quarter 2011 Total Return Index Comparison 3

NPI and ODCE vs. other Asset Classes: 1 and 10 year returns Total Return Index Comparison as of September 30,

NCREIF Property Index (NPI) Property Type Total Returns – Annual Returns Over Last Five Years 5

NCREIF Property Index (NPI) Third Quarter Implied Appraisal Cap Rates 6

NCREIF Property Index (NPI) Property Type Implied Appraisal Cap Rate Implied Cap Rate Equals Current Quarter NOI Divided by Current Quarter Market Value Multiplied by 4 7

NCREIF Property Index (NPI) Occupancy 8 Occupancy Last Five Quarters Third Quarter Occupancy-Last 5 Years

NCREIF Property Index (NPI) Occupancy by Property Type 9 Occupancy Last Five Quarters Third Quarter Occupancy-Last 5 Years

NCREIF Property Index (NPI) NOI Growth – Rolling Four Quarters (Excluding Hotels) 10

NCREIF Property Index (NPI) NOI Growth by Property Type - Four Quarter Total 11

NCREIF Property Index (NPI) Best and Worst Performing Apartment Markets Over the Past Ten Years 12 BestWorst Chicago has the 8 th worst return over a 10 year period

NCREIF Property Index (NPI) Best and Worst Performing Industrial Markets Over the Past Ten Years 13 BestWorst Chicago has the 9 th worst return over a 10 year period

NCREIF Property Index (NPI) Best and Worst Performing Office Markets Over the Past Ten Years 14 BestWorst

NCREIF Property Index (NPI) Best and Worst Performing Retail Markets Over the Past Ten Years 15 BestWorst Chicago has the 10 th worst return over a 10 year period

Summary of Third Quarter 2011 Results Commercial real estate returns drop slightly from last quarter Apartment is the best performing followed by retail West is the best and South moves upward Fundamentals improve Occupancy up from previous quarter and a year ago NOI growth turns positive (but driven by apartments) Cap rates continue to drop Transaction activity increases slightly, but far off normal levels Fundamentals beginning to catch up? 16

Upcoming NCREIF Events NCREIF Educational Program Nuts and Bolts of Institutional Real Estate Chicago, IL November 30-December 2, 2011 Visit for more informationwww.ncreif.org 17