California Energy Commission Retail Electric Rate Projections: Preliminary Cases 2015 Integrated Energy Policy Report California Energy Commission July.

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Presentation transcript:

California Energy Commission Retail Electric Rate Projections: Preliminary Cases 2015 Integrated Energy Policy Report California Energy Commission July 7, 2015 Malachi Weng-Gutierrez Prepared by Lynn Marshall Supply Analysis Office Energy Assessments Division

California Energy Commission Context of Electric Rate Model 2 Natural gas supply basins Connected to Interstate and Intrastate Pipelines Connected to Demand centers Revised rate forecast will incorporate data from recently submitted 2015 IEPR supply and demand forms

California Energy Commission Electricity Rate Cases 3 –Low Electricity Rate Case (High Energy Demand) Low natural gas and carbon prices More sales to recover transmission and distribution and other relatively fixed costs –High Electricity Rate Case (Low Energy Demand) High natural gas and carbon prices Lower demand means fixed costs per kwh of sales are higher –Mid Electricity Rate Case (Mid Energy Demand) Mid demand, natural gas, and carbon prices

California Energy Commission Data & Assumptions for Retail Electric Rate Cases 4

California Energy Commission Preliminary Natural Gas Prices by Hub 5 Source: Supply Analysis Office NamGas Model, March 23, SDG&E prices are similar to SCG

California Energy Commission CAISO Transmission Access Charge 6 Source: Energy Commission Staff and CAISO 2014 Transmission Access Charge Forecast Model, April 2014.

California Energy Commission IOU Revenue Requirement Growth by Case 7

California Energy Commission Preliminary Mid Case Planning Area Residential Rates 8

California Energy Commission Preliminary Mid Case Planning Area Commercial Rates 9

California Energy Commission Preliminary Results Annual Average Rate Increase by Case 10

California Energy Commission Comparison with CED 2013 Rate Cases Residential Mid Case 2013 Cents per KWH 11

California Energy Commission Conclusions 12 Questions and Comments