Why do funny things happen to World Bank Finance and Advice…. in Tanzania and Uganda? Judy O’Connor World Bank Director for Tanzania and Uganda

Political Economy - Tanzania Despite constitutional reform in mid 1990s, de facto one Party-state (CCM) Despite constitutional reform in mid 1990s, de facto one Party-state (CCM) Executive quite dominant Executive quite dominant Civil servants often have strong party roles Civil servants often have strong party roles CCM party executives work behind scene CCM party executives work behind scene Legislature made gains but still weak Legislature made gains but still weak Judiciary-more constitutionally independent Judiciary-more constitutionally independent Local govt lacks de facto autonomy Local govt lacks de facto autonomy Civil society and media weak but strengthening Civil society and media weak but strengthening Mainland/Zanzibar tensions persist Mainland/Zanzibar tensions persist Authorities chary of Kenya competition Authorities chary of Kenya competition Development Partners major player Development Partners major player

Political Economy - Uganda Constitutional reforms to allow multi parties Constitutional reforms to allow multi parties Movement (in place for 20 years) dominates Movement (in place for 20 years) dominates Executive weak Executive weak ~ 60 ministers/Deputy Ministers, 117 Pres advisors, but Pres is a ‘law unto himself’ ~ 60 ministers/Deputy Ministers, 117 Pres advisors, but Pres is a ‘law unto himself’ Legislature/opposition strengthening Legislature/opposition strengthening Judiciary-more constitutionally independent Judiciary-more constitutionally independent Local govt lacks de facto autonomy Local govt lacks de facto autonomy Civil society and media strengthening Civil society and media strengthening DPs not such a major player DPs not such a major player

Recent Political Progress Constitutional reforms strengthen judiciary and parliament Constitutional reforms strengthen judiciary and parliament Institutionalized multi-party system Institutionalized multi-party system More politically relevant institutions More politically relevant institutions Policies and programs to strengthen domestic accountability, PFMRP, Local Government, Social Funds… Policies and programs to strengthen domestic accountability, PFMRP, Local Government, Social Funds… Predictable periodic elections Predictable periodic elections Peace – Peace – with Zanzibar, in Northern Uganda with Zanzibar, in Northern Uganda

Political Economy Challenges Popular voice in public policy arena is weak Popular voice in public policy arena is weak Civil society and parliament relatively weak Civil society and parliament relatively weak Policy orientation top-down, Pres, Political Party/Exec, DPs, investors Policy orientation top-down, Pres, Political Party/Exec, DPs, investors Technocrats often unsupervised at either central or local level Technocrats often unsupervised at either central or local level Resource mobilisation “depoliticized” Resource mobilisation “depoliticized” “demand side” state institutions not sufficiently independent – IGG, PCB,.. “demand side” state institutions not sufficiently independent – IGG, PCB,..

Oversight constrained by Government’s propensity to control and constrain Government’s propensity to control and constrain Eg Haki Elimu, Monitor Newspaper.. Eg Haki Elimu, Monitor Newspaper.. Weak downward accountability Weak downward accountability Eg local government, local communities Eg local government, local communities Cultural norms of deference to authority Cultural norms of deference to authority Lack of public accountability of state institutions Lack of public accountability of state institutions

Political Economy of Public Service Reform Agencies created to implement strategies and programs Agencies created to implement strategies and programs Ministries continue not just with policy formulation, also with program implementation.. Ministry of Agric, Ministry of Works (Infra) Ministries continue not just with policy formulation, also with program implementation.. Ministry of Agric, Ministry of Works (Infra) Persistent dialogue, and evidence from success can help change paradigm Persistent dialogue, and evidence from success can help change paradigm

Governance and Accountability Consultation Findings … Governance integral to development Governance integral to development State/non-state stakeholders help shape governance quality/impact of devel. outcomes. State/non-state stakeholders help shape governance quality/impact of devel. outcomes. DP should support: DP should support: strengthening of fiduciary systems strengthening of fiduciary systems reduced conditionalities reduced conditionalities better definition of results, how they’re achieved, how much is achieved, at what cost better definition of results, how they’re achieved, how much is achieved, at what cost Parl./ Civil Society’s capacity to hold executive accountable Parl./ Civil Society’s capacity to hold executive accountable rule of law, quality public information in a sufficiently disaggregated and timely fashion rule of law, quality public information in a sufficiently disaggregated and timely fashion monitoring service delivery at the district and village levels monitoring service delivery at the district and village levels Country ownership, and domestic initiatives. Country ownership, and domestic initiatives.

Policy, Skill and Resource Requirements Political-economic context of development Political-economic context of development Incorporation of political feasibility factors, eg into research, PSIA analyses, program design Incorporation of political feasibility factors, eg into research, PSIA analyses, program design Political-economy standard training for mgt/technical staff on country teams Political-economy standard training for mgt/technical staff on country teams

WB vis-à-vis other Donors WB has done as much as any donor WB has done as much as any donor WB’s « Political-Economy of Tanzania » currently most widely used political- economy / governance report amongst donors in Tz, especially those concerned with core reform programmes WB’s « Political-Economy of Tanzania » currently most widely used political- economy / governance report amongst donors in Tz, especially those concerned with core reform programmes

Conclusion Development partners need to understand Development partners need to understand winners and losers of key reforms winners and losers of key reforms how to maximise potential for success how to maximise potential for success how to minimize political backlash how to minimize political backlash how to support key government reformers how to support key government reformers

Bibleography Work ongoing or recently completed Work ongoing or recently completed WB -- Political Economy, Anti-Corruption, Political Finance, Pay Reform studies WB -- Political Economy, Anti-Corruption, Political Finance, Pay Reform studies DFID – Drivers of Change/Patterns of Accountability DFID – Drivers of Change/Patterns of Accountability State Weakness – Operational Policy for Anti- Corruption State Weakness – Operational Policy for Anti- Corruption Norway – Governance and Corruption in Tanzania Norway – Governance and Corruption in Tanzania SIDA – A Power Analysis of Tanzania (2005) SIDA – A Power Analysis of Tanzania (2005) Monitoring Power in Tanzania (Update) (2007) Monitoring Power in Tanzania (Update) (2007) USAID – Assessment of Democracy and Governance USAID – Assessment of Democracy and Governance Source: