Defence Research and Development Canada Recherche et développement pour la défense Canada Canada Insurgency in Afghanistan in the Regional Strategic Context.

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Presentation transcript:

Defence Research and Development Canada Recherche et développement pour la défense Canada Canada Insurgency in Afghanistan in the Regional Strategic Context Paper by Mr. Anthony Kellett Revised & Presented by Dr. Gregory Smolynec Team Leader, Canadian Expeditionary Forces Command Operational Research & Analysis Team 28 October COIN Leaders’ Workshop - Ft Leavenworth

Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada Caveat The reported results, their interpretation, and any opinions expressed in this presentation, remain those of the author or presenter and do not represent, or otherwise reflect, any official opinion or position of the Canadian Forces, the Department of National Defence or the Government of Canada.

Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada Overview of Today’s Lecture Origins of this project Pakistan –Conditions in Pakistan –Talibanization –Balochistan –Pakistan & Afghanistan –Opposing the militants Conclusions

Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada The Genesis of this Project Canadian area of operations Kandahar Province bordering Balochistan, Pakistan Need for regional strategic picture June 09 - Mr. Anthony Kellett produces paper Revised Oct 09

Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada Pakistan – A Failing State? Civil Violence Political Weakness Socio-Economic Conditions

Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada The Talibanization of Pakistan The Pakistani Taliban The Tribal Areas Rising Extremism in the Rest of the Country Pakistan & Global Jihadi Terrorism

Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada Balochistan Preconditions of Unrest Nationalist Rebellion Pakistan’s Response

Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada Pakistan & Afghanistan Islamabad’s Aims Militant Proxies The Tribal Areas & the Threat to Afghan Stability Balochistan & Afghan Insurgency Cross-border weapons movement

Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada Opposing the Militants Leadership Civil Society & Public Opinion Security Forces –Military –Police

Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada Conclusions Pakistan increasingly fragile Islamist extremism is spreading Pakistan has replaced Afghanistan as the base for terrorism in West (al-Qaida) Pakistan wants a friendly regime in Afghanistan to counter India Islamabad has long used militant groups as proxies, has lost control, but has persisted in this policy Balochistan key command and logistics centre for Afghan Taliban; Islamabad unlikely to act against them Bomb-making expertise and material widely available in Pakistan, cross border easily Militants in Pakistan have been more determined than government, army and society Afghan Taliban and allies will likely retain (Pakistan) sanctuary crucial to insurgency in Afghanistan