1 The Effects of Integrating Wind Power on Transmission System Planning, Reliability, and Operations Phase 1 Preliminary Overall Reliability Assessment

2 Project Timeline 08/08/03Draft Scope of Work Released to Market Participants for Review 08/29/03RFP Issued 09/29/03Technical Proposals Received 10/09/03Technical Review of Proposals Completed 10/15/03Request to Proceed to Contract with GE Approved 10/29/03Team Meeting on Data Requirements (NYISO, GE, NYSERDA, AWS, NYSDPS)

3 Project Timeline (continued) 11/14/03Team Meeting on Analytical Approach 12/02/03Contract with GE Executed 12/31/03Draft Phase 1 Report Submitted for Review 01/06/03Meeting to Review Draft Report (NYISO, GE, NYSERDA, AWS, NYSDPS) 01/09/04Draft Phase 1 Report Released to Market Participants & RPS Proceeding Parties 01/14/04Presentation by GE of Draft Phase 1 Report Results

4 Project Timeline (continued) 01/20/04Market Participants & RPS Proceeding Parties Comments and Questions Received 02/02/04Final Phase 1 Report due to NYSERDA 10/01/04Draft of Phase 2 Report due to NYSERDA 11/01/04Final Phase 2 Report due to NYSERDA

5 Send your written comments to: Please identify section and page number of draft report

6 The Effects of Integrating Wind Power on Transmission System Planning, Reliability, and Operations Phase 1 Preliminary Overall Reliability Assessment Draft Report -- January 8, 2004

7 Phase 1 Objectives Assess impact of large scale wind generation on reliability of NYSBPS –Can NY reliably operate with a significant penetration of wind generation? –Consider technical issues, not economics Provide foundation for detailed system performance evaluation in Phase 2

8 Scope of Phase 1 Analysis Review world experience with wind generation Fatal flaw power flow analysis on NY transmission system Reliability analysis (LOLE) Review current NY planning and operating practices (NYSRC, NPCC, NERC, NYISO)

9 Data Sources AWS Scientific, Inc. –101 potential wind generation sites in NY State –One year of hourly wind profiles for each site –Wind generation technical characteristics –Wind energy generation forecasting NY Independent System Operator (NYISO) –Powerflow and reliability datasets Department of Public Service (NYSDPS) –Generation fuel cost and heat rates

10 NY Control Area Load Zones and Potential Wind Generation

11 World Experience With Wind New York 2008 Peak Load: Approx. 33 GW

12 World Experience Interconnection Requirements Existing wind technology in use –Voltage regulation at interconnection bus, with guaranteed power factor range –Low voltage ride-through –Monitoring, metering, event recording –Power curtailment capability New York should require these features now

13 World Experience Interconnection Requirements Emerging wind technology, available in near future –Ability to set power ramps –Governor functions –Reserve functions –Zero-power voltage regulation New York should require these when available

14 World Experience Wind Forecasting –Site-specific –Hourly and day-ahead –Central collection and analysis to facilitate state-wide coordination and operation Evolution of Technology and Procedures –Institutional flexibility to revise procedures –Gather experience while penetration is low

15 World Experience Operational Impacts in NY State –Existing hourly load variability: 920 MW –With 3300 MW of wind: Load+Wind variability: 975 MW (Increase of 6%) No operating problems anticipated –Examined experience data for minute-to-minute wind variation No increase to NY 10-minute operating reserves anticipated –Focus of Phase 2 investigation: Load following and regulation (wind variability) Unit commitment (wind forecast accuracy)

16 World Experience Based on world experience.... –NY State should be able to integrate wind generation up to at least 10% of system peak load 3300 MW of wind generation –No significant operational limits or problems anticipated if NY State adopts suitable wind farm interconnection requirements and operation practices

17 Fatal Flaw Power Flow World experience shows 10% wind penetration should be possible AWS wind site survey shows 10,026 MW potential How much power can the NY State transmission system accommodate from each of the wind sites?

18 Fatal Flaw Power Flow Process –Add wind generators per site list Redispatch other generation in same zone –If thermal overloads on transmission lines, reduce wind generator output Results (with nuclear plants at base load) –5100 MW wind at 80% peak system load –4900 MW wind at 44% peak system load Supports conclusion that 10% penetration should be possible

19 Reliability Analysis How does wind generation contribute to the reliability of the New York Control Area? –Resource Adequacy –Loss of Load Expectation, LOLE Include effects due to: –Capacity factors –Seasonal wind variation –Diurnal wind variation

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21 Average monthly capacity factor for all 101 wind sites and NYCA monthly peak load

22 Average hourly output for all 101 wind sites and NYCA average load for July

23 Reliability Analysis For wind generation sites in NY State, average capacity contribution to reliability is approximately 10% of nameplate rating. Modification of UCAP calculation method required (Phase 2 task)

24 Planning and Operating Practices

25 Procedures Needing Modifications Sooner: –Calculation of unforced capacity value of wind generation (UCAP) –Operating procedures for operation with impending severe weather conditions

26 Procedures Needing Modifications (Continued) Later: –Calculation of operating reserves, regulation and load following requirements in the presence of wind generation –Test requirements for the Dependable Maximum Net Capacity (DMNC) measurement of wind generation –Consideration of wind generation in transmission planning

27 Phase 1 Conclusions Based on the results of this preliminary assessment: NY State should be able to integrate wind generation distributed across the NYCA to a level of at least 10% of the system peak load without significant impacts on planning, operations, and reliability of the bulk power system. Total of about 3300 MW of Wind Generation

28 GE’s Project Team Nick Miller World Experience with Wind Generation Kara ClarkFatal Flaw Power Flow Analysis Gary JordanReliability Analysis George Boukarim Review of Current NY Planning and Operating Practices Richard PiwkoProject Manager