Hanoi, January 27th 2015 Enrico Weber DEI – Politecnico di Milano IMRR Project INTEGRATED AND SUSTAINABLE WATER MANAGEMENT OF RED-THAI BINH RIVER SYSTEM IN A CHANGING CLIMATE 3. Indicators and criteria

IMRR phases econnaissance odeling the system ndicators identification cenarios definition lternative design valuation R M I S A E Identification of 24 indicators, related to 5 sectors of interest Validation over different time horizons omparison C 2

3 Evaluation Hierarchy Who (and how) is affected by the changes in the sytem? Which kind of criteria are used to evaluate the effects?

Water supply Rice fields in Ninh Binh Criteria: Satisfy water needs in order to ensure agricultural production and guarantee other water uses 4

Water supply 1.Experts’ knowledge How to assess the water shortage? Reference threshold (2010): 2.3 m at Long Bien, Hanoi Estimation of real deficit 5 2. Delta hydraulic model

Water supply 1. Reference threshold, identified trough expert knowledge and MARD regulations: 6

Water supply 1. Reference threshold, identified trough expert knowledge and MARD regulations: "In dry season the reference threshold for water supply in the Delta was 2.3 meter at Long Bien Station, Hanoi“ (MARD release plan) Indicator formulation, from IMRR wiki website:IMRR wiki website 7

Water supply 1. Reference threshold, identified trough expert knowledge and MARD regulations: "In dry season the reference threshold for water supply in the Delta was 2.3 meter at Long Bien Station, Hanoi“ (MARD release plan) Indicator formulation, from IMRR wiki website:IMRR wiki website 8

Water supply 2. Hydraulic model of the Delta Region: simulation of the canal network and of the intake points behavior, in order to get a measurement of the daily water deficit.  4200 km river and canals network  11 Irrigation Districts  88 Sluice gates  302 district pumps  160 river pumps 9 MIKE11

All the water uses in the Delta are accounted in the water demand computation, done for each irrigation district on a decadic basis Water uses: all districts in Delta Irrigation Aquaculture Urban and Industries Domestic water for rural area Water for livestock Water for environment Water supply 10

Water supply NHUEDDTN VB TL AKH BDBHHNTB BTBNND Water needs are represented trough the water demand for each pump 11

Water supply NHUEDDTN VB TL AKH BDBHHNTB BTBNND 12 Aggregated water demand for each irrigation district

Water supply Indicator formulation, from IMRR wiki website:IMRR wiki website 13 i ws:3

Water supply NHUE DD TN VB TL AKH BD BHH NTBBTB NND Annual volume of deficit for each district 14

Water supply Spatial distribution of water deficit in

Flood control Criteria: Minimize flood damages at Hanoi and all over the Delta region Long Bien, Hanoi 16

Flood control Requirements for the indicators:  risk-aversion: focus on the flood peak  consider also damages in the flood plains  consider both magnitude and duration of the floods – 300 years r.t. Main dyke system Official thresholds – 500 years r.t. Hanoi city 17

Flood control Requirements for the indicators:  risk-aversion: focus on the flood peak  consider also damages in the flood plains  consider both magnitude and duration of the floods 125 flood plains, located along 14 rivers ~ inhabitants stage-damage relationship estimation Flood plain study (IWRP) 18

Flood control Requirements for the indicators: risk-aversion: focus on the flood peak consider also damages in the flood plains consider both magnitude and duration of the floods 125 flood plains, located along 14 rivers inhabitants Flood plain study (IWRP)Sum of damages in Flood Plains 19

Flood control Requirements for the indicators: risk-aversion: focus on the flood peak consider also damages in the flood plains consider both magnitude and duration of the floods 125 flood plains, located along 14 rivers inhabitants Flood plain study (IWRP)Sum of damages in Flood Plains 20

Flood control Requirements for the indicators:  risk-aversion: focus on the flood peak  consider also damages in the flood plains  consider both magnitude and duration of the floods damage to structures damage to economic activities Criteria considered 21

Flood control Damage to structures Indicator formulation, from IMRR wiki website:IMRR wiki website i Fl:1 22

Flood control 23 damages in Flood Plain 13.10: exceedance of the main dyke system, except Hanoi city 13.40: damages also inside Hanoi city

Flood control Damage to economic activities Indicator formulation, from IMRR wiki website:IMRR wiki website i Fl:7 i Fl:8 24

Flood control 25 i Fl:1 i Fl:7 i Fl:8 1971

Other indicators:  i Fl:2 = Maximum water level in Hanoi over the time horizon  i Fl:3 = number of occurrence of Day dam opening  i Fl:5 = Yearly average number of day with floods (h_HN >11.5)  i Fl:6 = Maximum duration of a flood event over the time horizon [days] Flood control 26

Hydropower Criteria: Minimize the deficit of energy from the Red River Plants, especially in the periods in which the thermal production is higher Son La dam 27

Hydropower Outcomes of sector meeting with EVN: Value of production depends from the period, being higher during dry season, when the production relies most on thermal power. 28

Hydropower Indicator formulation, from IMRR wiki website:IMRR wiki website: 29 i Hp:1

Hydropower Indicator formulation, from IMRR wiki website:IMRR wiki website: 30 i HP:1

Hydropower Indicator formulation, from IMRR wiki website:IMRR wiki website: 31 i HP:1

Navigation Criteria: Minimize navigation interruption Minimize dredging costs 32

Navigation Outcomes of sector meeting with MoIT:  Navigation threshold is fixed at 1.1 m at Long Bien Station, accordig to ( Decision 1708/DTND-QLHT issued by Vietnam Inland Waterways Administration, 2009 )  Water levels in Hanoi below 0.4 m, force the complete stop of navigation on the Red River  Water levels above 11.5 m do not let boats and ships pass the Duong Bridge  Dredging intervention have been performed in the past when water level falled below 1.1 m at Long Bien. 33

Navigation Indicator formulation, from IMRR wiki website:IMRR wiki website: i N:1 i N:2 34

Navigation Other Indicators:  i N:3 = Yearly average number of days in which the water level at Long Bien station in Hanoi is lower than total interruption threshold [days]  i N:4 = Yearly average number of days in which the water level at Long Bien station in Hanoi on the Red River is above the navigation upper threshold [days]  i N:5 = Dredging costs: yearly average of daily deficit respect to the navigation threshold 35

Navigation 36 i N:1 i N:2 i N:3 i N:4 i N:5

River Environment Criteria: Preserve and improve river environment quality 37

In the dry season every hydraulic structure has to release, or let flow downstream of it, a minimum water flow that corresponds to the flow that is overcome the 90% of the time(Q90%) in the dry season, in order to protect the ecological environment (’National technical regulation on hydraulic structures’ (QCVN :2012/BNNPTNT, MARD) River Environment Hoa Binh Tuyen Quang Thac Ba 38

River Environment 39 MIKE Mike 11 simulation with unregulated flow as inputs Unregulated (or “natural”) time series of flows at Son Tay

River Environment 40 Q90%

River Environment 41

River Environment Indicator formulation, from IMRR wiki website:IMRR wiki website: 42

River Environment historical unregulated 43

44 River Environment

River Environment historical unregulated 45

River Environment Historical streamflow at Son Tay Unregulated streamflow at Son Tay Higher values in the flood season 46

River Environment Lower flows in the dry season 47

Thanks for your attention XIN CẢM ƠN 48

Water supply Different results using different deficit-based indicators, 49

Water supply 50

Water supply 1 Expert Based2. Model based Strength- Simple and immediate, - always computable, Suitable for general use, embed parameters of water demand Allow to represent spatial distribution of deficit Weakness-Depends upon the actual situation, can not be referred to future - does not give enough information on localization and magnitude of deficifs Need to run simulation of the internal situation of each canal 51

Flood control 52

River Environment 53

River Environment Lower flows in the dry season 54

River Environment 55

River Environment 56

River Environment 57

Hydropower 58 GWh

Hydropower 59 GWh

River envir. Hydropower Irrigation Lake envir. Floods A54…A4A2A1A1A0A0 Alternatives Indexes Lake envir. River envir. Hydropowe r Irrigatio n Flood s Lake envir. River envir. Hydropowe r Irrigatio n Flood s Value matrix Pareto Race excessive loss in irrigation reasonable alternative A0 no actions Lake envir. River envir. Hydropowe r Irrigatio n Flood s going on Lake envir.River envir.HydropowerIrrigationFloods utility A0A36A34