1 An Overview of the Status of Agricultural Mechanization in the World and the Role of Bio-fuels by Dr. Geoffrey C. Mrema Director Rural Infrastructure and Agro-Industries Division Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Rome, Italy

2 Outline of the presentation Overview of actual agricultural situation in the World with special reference to the prevailing soaring food prices Elements of the FAO’s position on the World food situation Future prospective of the renewable energy originating from agriculture and Concluding comments

3 Global Food Situation/Crisis The issue of soaring food prices dominates discussion on current global food situation/crisis. Soaring food prices caused by  Low global stock levels - poor harvests in 2005/06  High energy prices – influence cost of inputs  Increased use of grains for bio-energy  Increased demand due to changes in diets – due to economic growth & urbanization Medium term projections are that high prices will prevail for the foreseeable future.

4 Source: FAOSTAT

5 Total stocks

6

7 Increased demand due to change in diets  urban population Source: FAOSTAT

10 Source: FAOSTAT

11 Source: FAO

12

13 Potential for increased use of machinery and implements in agriculture:  Europe & North America and parts of Asia reaching saturation levels:  Numbers of agric. tractors peaked => continuous decline due to use of larger units  Trade - more replacement and/or introduction of new models/features [GPS etc]  Potential increased use of new implements due to environmental concerns – Conservation Agriculture (CA)  Bio-energy crops due to substitution and no new land area brought under cultivation  New manufacturers => global players in the market for machinery and implements

14 Potential for increased use of machinery and implements in agriculture  In Latin America and parts of Asia:  Potential for increased use of tractors due to new land or consolidation of farms; replacement of draft animals  New manufacturers’ dominant; their exports to other regions  Bio-energy crops => opening up of new lands especially in Latin America  Environmental friendly practices like CA will spread  Agro-industries & super markets may be more involved in financing of contract agric. production

15 Potential for increased use of machinery and implements in agriculture  For Sub-Saharan Africa [SSA]:  Comparatively large scale agric. mechanization projects of the 1960s -70s were not successful  Followed by draft animal traction projects in the 1980s -90s mostly donor funded – limited success  High economic growth rates from 2000 has fueled interest in agric. mechanization:  New suppliers from China; India; Brazil  More liberal agric. policies e.g. medium & large farms  Increased demand for food due to urbanization  Problems which led to failure of earlier projects still there – low tractor utilization rates; lack of credit etc

16 Potential for increased use of machinery and implements in agriculture –SSA Chances of repeating mistakes of the 1960s & 70s quite high due to:  new suppliers and new leaders in place  reasons of earlier failures not that well documented FAO quite concerned by this and is:  Publishing a new report: Agricultural Mechanization in SSA: Time for a new look  Together with UNIDO convened an Expert Consultation in Vienna in November 2007; report just out.  Follow up activities in 2008/09 link with rural infrastructure & new financing mechanisms.

17 Source: World Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2007

18 Bio-energy Use of Grains Source: Global Subsidies Initiative 2007

19 Source: World Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2007

20 Recommendations of FAO Expert Consultation on Bio-energy – February 2008  Bio fuel production has: Important implications to global food security, trade, rural and urban sectors, especially in developing countries Rapid increase in bio fuel production is largely supported by subsidies in OECD countries Still many unknowns from technical, policy, ecological, economical, equity and food security perspectives Need for a globally based information and data clearing warehouse on bio fuels. BIOENERGY POLICY, MARKETS AND TRADE AND FOOD SECURITY. TECHNICAL BACKGROUND DOCUMENT FROM THE EXPERT CONSULTATION HELD ON 18 TO 20 FEBRUARY FAO, ROME

21 Guideposts for policy development for bio fuel sector  Policies should be more market-oriented and outward looking  Incorporate environmental impacts including land use changes  Promote R&D for improving economic and physical efficiencies for both feedstock production & bio fuel conversion processes  Protect the poor and food insecure – both from food availability and energy perspective

22 Conclusions  Mechanization will remain an important input in agricultural production  Most regions of the world should reach high levels of mechanization in the next 2-3 decades  Bio fuel production likely to catalyse mechanization and change the energy situation of the rural areas  New players are likely to attain a more prominent role in supply of agricultural machinery and implements globally  Thank you.