Arnold Ashton Ontario Storm Prediction Centre Environment Canada Great Lakes Operational Meteorology Workshop Ann Arbor, May 13-15, 2014

Page 2 – August 15, 2015 Scope of Games: 2014 Sochi Olympics2015 PanAm/Parapan Games No. Of Athletes and Coaches 2900 Athletes8000 – PanAm 2000 – Parapan Volunteers25,00023,000 No. of Sports16 – Olympics (10 outdoors) 4 – Paralympics (3 outdoors) 40 – PanAm (18 Outdoors) 10 – Parapan Range of Spectator Seating Up to 12,000 (40,000 – Opening/Closing Ceremonies) 1,500 to 20,000 (potentially 70,000 – Opening/Closing Ceremonies) Duration16 Days – Olympics 9 Days – Paralympics (6 Weeks total with Prep time and Wrap-Up) 14 Days – Pan AM 7 Days – Parapan (6 Weeks total with Prep time and Wrap- Up) No. Of Participating Countries 8842 PanAm: July 10-26, 2015Parapan: Aug 7-15, 2015

Page 3 – August 15, 2015 Previous Games: Guadalajara, 2011

Page 4 – August 15, 2015 Environment Canada’s Role: Two-pronged goal: - Safety and security during the Games - Showcase EC’s advancement in science and technology Enhanced service: - Two PanAm desks + One Briefer desk - Issue VENUE-specific warnings and Tailored venue forecasts

Page 5 – August 15, 2015 Main Goal(s): Training To create a FRAMEWORK: - CONSISTENCY in forecasts & warnings - ACCURACY in forecasts & warnings - To improve warning LEAD TIMES (and reduce False Alarms)

Page 6 – August 15, 2015 Severe Weather Warnings are important, especially in large crowd scenarios such as the 2015 Games Ottawa Jul 17, 2011 SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 12:02 PM EDT TUESDAY 29 MAY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR: =NEW= CALEDON =NEW= NEWMARKET - GEORGINA - NORTHERN YORK REGION =NEW= SHELBURNE - MANSFIELD - NORTHERN DUFFERIN COUNTY =NEW= INNISFIL - NEW TECUMSETH - ANGUS =NEW= HANOVER - DUNDALK - SOUTHERN GREY COUNTY =NEW= BARRIE - COLLINGWOOD - HILLSDALE STRATFORD - MITCHELL - SOUTHERN PERTH COUNTY LISTOWEL - MILVERTON - NORTHERN PERTH COUNTY MOUNT FOREST - ARTHUR - NORTHERN WELLINGTON COUNTY ORANGEVILLE - GRAND VALLEY - SOUTHERN DUFFERIN COUNTY. A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 KM/H THROUGH THE AREA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING 2 TO 4 CM HAIL, HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND WIND GUSTS TO 90 KM/H. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING IN THE AREA. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS OR HEAVY RAINFALL. REMEMBER THAT SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO PRODUCE TORNADOES. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ONTARIO RECOMMENDS TAKING COVER IMMEDIATELY WHEN THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. ==DISCUSSION== A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF ONTARIO BY EARLY EVENING BRINGING AN END TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. REFER TO YOUR LOCAL PUBLIC FORECAST FOR FURTHER DETAILS. END/OSPC SUMMER SEVERE WEATHER Heavy Rain Strong Winds Air Quality Lightning Hail Heat/UV Camrose Aug 1, 2009

Page 7 – August 15, 2015 Weather Warnings are issued on Sub-Region Scale. Severe Weather Warnings, Smog and Humidex Advisories are Issued as Required Forecasts are for broad areas The Severe Weather can be sub sub regional! Or Points! NEED VENUE WARNINGS! Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Page 8 – August 15, 2015 Observationally-challenged

Page 9 Compact Weather Stations – station on a stick –Temperature –Humidity –Pressure –Wind Speed and Direction –Rain – Start, Intensity, amount, stop High Resolution digital weather camera Black Globe Temperature Sensor (Heat stress)

Page 10 Compact Weather Stations – station on a stick –Temperature –Humidity –Pressure –Wind Speed and Direction –Rain – Start, Intensity, amount, stop High Resolution digital weather camera Black Globe Temperature Sensor (Heat stress)

Page 11 ATMOS Weather Stations – fancier –Temperature –Humidity –Pressure –Wind Speed and Direction (10 m) –Rain – Start, Intensity, amount, stop Research grade equipment (WMO guidelines)

Page 12 Radiosondes – 4 X per day

Page 13 Wave Rider Buoy Near sailing Watchkeeper Buoy Events

Page 14 4 X-band phased array radars 2 Lidars (Doppler pointing upwards)

Page 15 – August 15, 2015 Wind GPS Logger Pressure T/RH (ventilated) Compass Three units EC AMMOS Mobile Mesonet Stations

Page 16 – August 15, 2015 Lightning Mapping Array

Page 17 – August 15, 2015 Lightning Mapping Array- Google Earth example showing two strikes

Page 18 – August 15, 2015 Courtesy: Dr. David Sills

Page 19 – August 15, 2015

Page 20 – August 15, 2015 GUIDANCE from EXPERIMENTAL SUB-KM NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION 250-m grid spacing computational domain Heat episodes Lake breezes Initiation, evolution, and intensification of intense convective activity Test the ability of new NWP to provide improved guidance for the following events over the GTA:

Page 21 – August 15, 2015 Ontario Hourly AQHI Forecasts Pilot Project Launched during the Pan Am Games for: Toronto Downtown Toronto Island Toronto East Toronto West Toronto North York University Hamilton Downtown Hamilton Mountain

Page 22 – August 15, 2015 Heat and Health

Page 23 Questions? Contact: Arnold Ashton